Space Weather Awareness – Policy and Operations
Submitting Institution
University of BathUnit of Assessment
Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Metallurgy and MaterialsSummary Impact Type
TechnologicalResearch Subject Area(s)
Physical Sciences: Astronomical and Space Sciences
Earth Sciences: Geophysics
Engineering: Geomatic Engineering
Summary of the impact
Space weather can adversely affect the performance of many communication
and navigation systems. Research into space weather events and their
mapping through our Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS)
algorithms have highlighted the vulnerability of Global Satellite
Navigation Systems (including GPS). The impact of our research has
occurred in three main ways. Firstly, it has impacted on the global
satellite and communications industry by enabling space-weather effects
to be included in a sophisticated commercial GPS simulator. Secondly, it
has impacted on UK government [text removed for publication]. Thirdly, it has engaged and
informed the public about GPS and space weather.
Underpinning research
Key researchers involved in developing MIDAS algorithms: Prof C
Mitchell, Dr P Spencer, Dr J Rose and Dr D Allain.
MIDAS (Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System) is a set of advanced
mathematical algorithms that map space weather events and analyses their
impact on global satellite systems like GPS. The algorithms carry out many
complex signal-processing tasks, tomography and data assimilation and
connect into an analysis of space weather that has proven to be both
accurate and reliable.
Space weather occurs when solar flares and the solar wind interact with
and perturb the near-Earth space environment. Through changes in the
Earth's ionosphere (the ionised upper atmosphere), space weather can
affect the performance of many communication and navigation systems. One
important effect is the performance degradation of Global Satellite
Navigation Systems (including GPS), reducing their accuracy in positioning
and limiting their system availability. The ionosphere remains the largest
source of error in single-frequency GPS navigation.
In the space-weather application of MIDAS, differential line-integral
observations of the Total Electron Content (TEC) obtained from a network
of ground-based and space-based GPS receivers are assimilated with other
space-weather data and analysed. The resulting reconstructions provide a
highly-accurate three-dimensional image of the Earth's ionosphere and its
changes over time [1-2]. MIDAS works in real time, so it can continuously
monitor and determine the changing nature of the ionosphere as it responds
to space weather. Importantly, it then uses this information to calculate,
again in real time, the exact effect of space weather on the position
errors in GPS measurements [3-4]. The MIDAS algorithms can be used to warn
of, or to remove, the delay error — and thus improve the accuracy of GPS.
They also reveal and quantify the signal distortions known as
scintillations that limit the availability of GPS (i.e., the loss of the
system at user level). MIDAS is used under licence from Bath by many other
academic institutions across the world [text removed for publication].
A further aspect of our MIDAS research is that huge quantities of data,
collected from the polar and equatorial regions, have been used to
quantify the effects of extreme space weather [5-6]. In several Bath-led
international collaborations there has been considerable effort made to
build, deploy and run reliable equipment at remote sites such as northern
Scandinavia and Antarctica [5-6]. These successful experiments have
yielded unique datasets that characterise ionospheric effects and are now
being used in a [text removed for publication] GPS simulator. [text removed for publication] The MIDAS
algorithms were initially designed through an EPSRC grant to C Mitchell in
2000 and have subsequently been extended with multi-million-£ investment
from UK research councils, including an EPSRC Advanced Fellowship
(2003-2008) and an EPSRC Challenging Engineering Award (2006-2011). The
on-going research is currently supported through a Royal Society Wolfson
Research Merit Award (2009-2014).
References to the research
[1] Spencer, Paul S. J.; Mitchell, Cathryn N., 2007. Imaging of fast
moving electron-density structures in the polar cap. Annals of
Geophysics, 50 (3), pp. 427-434. DOI: 10.4401/ag-3074
[2]* Mitchell, C. N. and Spencer, P. S. J., 2003. A three-dimensional
time-dependent algorithm for ionospheric imaging using GPS. Annals of
Geophysics, 46 (4), pp. 687-696. DOI: 10.4401/ag-4373
[3]* Allain, D. and Mitchell, C. N., 2009. Ionospheric delay corrections
for single-frequency GPS receivers over Europe using tomographic mapping,
GPS Solutions, 13 (2), pp. 141-151. DOI: 10.1007/s10291-008-0107-y
[4] Allain, D. and Mitchell, C., 2010. Comparison of 4D tomographic
mapping versus thin-shell approximation for ionospheric delay corrections
for single-frequency GPS receivers over North America, GPS Solutions,
14 (3), pp. 279-291. DOI: 10.1007/s10291-009-0153-0
[5]* Mitchell, C. N., Alfonsi, L., De Franceschi, G., Lester, M., Romano,
V. and Wernik, A. W., 2005. GPS TEC and scintillation measurements from
the polar ionosphere during the October 2003 storm. Geophysical
Research Letters, 32 (12), L12S03. DOI: 10.1029/2004gl021644
[6] Rose, J., Allain, D. and Mitchell, C., 2009. Reduction in the
ionospheric error for a single- frequency GPS timing solution using
tomography. Annals of Geophysics, 52 (5), pp. 469-486. DOI:
10.4401/ag-4604
*denotes references that best indicate the quality of the research
Details of the impact
Impacts on Industry: Extreme space-weather scenarios, based on
real observations, are being generated by Bath for application in a [text removed for publication] simulator. [text removed for publication] [a].
[text removed for publication]
Impacts on Policy: Our MIDAS research has contributed to a
situation in which "the management of an environmental risk or hazard"
has changed, in this case through policy decisions made at
government level. [text removed for publication] [b]. Rose (PhD student supervised by C
Mitchell) played a key role in raising awareness at UK Government level,
when he presented his Space Weather MIDAS research and was awarded the 2010
SET for Britain Engineering and Westminster Medals.
Quoting from the REF guidelines, "policy debate has been stimulated
and informed" — here by real-time monitoring of the ionosphere by
MIDAS. The research resulted in an invitation to C Mitchell to take
lead authorship of a European Space Agency white paper on the effects of
ionospheric scintillation on GNSS systems [c], as well as authorship of
both a white paper by the US Federal Aviation Authority's Satellite-Based
Augmentation System Working Group in 2010 [d] and a Royal Academy of
Engineering report in 2013 [e]. Further, following the UK-US Space Weather
Policy Round Table in 2010, The National Oceanographic & Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) in the US organised workshops to define how this
policy would be delivered. One of the five areas addressed (co-led by C
Mitchell) was the ionosphere and the development of MIDAS to provide
real-time ionospheric imaging. This has contributed to a Roadmap Document
(in 2011) to both UK and US governments detailing how UK/US research can
be delivered as an operational system for space weather monitoring.
[text removed for publication]
Finally, "the development of policies and services of benefit to the
developing world" have resulted. Bath led a special workshop on
MIDAS in South Africa, in 2009, funded by the Royal Society and
subsequently led a successful bid to ESA to lead an initiative to involve
more researchers from African nations in space weather research. The Bath
group consequently organised a workshop, including training sessions on
MIDAS, in Africa in 2013, funding the attendance of researchers from six
African nations [g].
Impacts on Public Awareness: "Public interest and engagement
in science and engineering has been stimulated" and "the
awareness, attitudes or understanding of the public have been
increased." In April 2013, the Bath team mounted an exhibition,
"Antenna Live: Space Weather", at The Science Museum in London. The
exhibition presented the concepts of space weather, explained why it is
important to some technological systems, described how MIDAS works to
image the ionosphere and described the dramatic fieldwork undertaken in
the Antarctic to deploy GPS receivers at the South Pole for MIDAS
analysis. The exhibition was attended by about 3,200 visitors over 3 days
[h]. The Science Museum curator comments, "Thanks again for the time
and effort you put in to the Antenna Live last week — we had ~3200
people visit the display over the three days, which is great, and I
think there was a really nice mixture of objects and media for the
visitors to see and talk about." In the same month, C Mitchell was
interviewed for "Solar Storms", a Radio 4 documentary programme on space
weather [i]. She also completed a `Science Explained' webcast for the BBC
website in 2010, explaining the fundamental concepts of how GPS works [j].
In summary, the space-weather MIDAS research at Bath has had significant
impact on industry, policy and public awareness.
Sources to corroborate the impact
a) [text removed for publication]
b) www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61929/CO_
NationalRiskRegister_2012_acc.pdf
c) Status Report on Ionospheric Scintillation by the Galileo Science
Advisory Committee, report commissioned by ESA, 2012
d) Effect of Ionospheric Scintillations on GNSS — A White Paper, report
by the Satellite-Based Augumentation System Iono Working Group
commissioned by the FAA, 2010
e) Extreme space weather: impacts on engineered systems and
infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, February 2013, ISBN
1-903496-95-0, see http://www.raeng.org.uk/spaceweather
f) [text removed for publication]
g) Ionospheric Monitoring: Africa, Workshop held at Hermanus, South
Africa, January 2013
h) Email from Science Museum curator, 8 April 2013
i) "Solar Storms", BBC Radio 4, 25 April 2013
j) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8643772.stm