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QRISK is a new algorithm which predicts an individual's risk of cardiovascular over 10 years. It was developed using the QResearch database and is in routine use across the NHS. It is included in national guidelines from NICE and the Department of Health and in the GP quality and outcomes framework. It is incorporated into > 90% of GP computer systems as well as pharmacy and secondary care systems. The web calculator has been used >500,000 times worldwide. ClinRisk Ltd was incorporated in 2008 to develop software to ensure the reliable widespread implementation of the QRISK algorithm into clinical practice.
Over the past ten years, the prescription of cholesterol-lowering statins has soared and they are now the most prescribed drugs in the UK and the US. However, this has raised concerns about inappropriate prescribing. University of Glasgow research has been pivotal in addressing this issue and has triggered revision of major international guidelines to stratify patients in the general population for statin therapy and guide statin use in the rheumatoid arthritis patient population. The identification of a statin-associated risk for diabetes prompted the European Medicines Agency and the US Food & Drug Administration to revise safety labelling for all classes of statins. This risk is now communicated to the 27 million patients in the UK and US who are prescribed statins.
The University of Oxford's United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) was a landmark 30-year clinical trial, reported in over 80 academic research papers between 1983 and 2008. It showed beyond doubt that diabetic complications, previously thought to be inevitable consequences of the condition, could be delayed or prevented by improved treatment from the time of diagnosis. These findings have had a profound influence on the management of type 2 diabetes, clinical guidelines, and standards of care, and have reduced diabetes-related complications worldwide, lowering the incidence of blindness, kidney failure, amputation, heart attack and stroke.
Around 2.5 million people in the UK have Type 2 diabetes, with many more in a pre-diabetic state, Both conditions are hard to detect and frequently remain undiagnosed and untreated for years. The cost burden to the NHS of eventual treatment is estimated at £10 billion; 80% of which is spent on complications that are, with good care, avoidable. Targeted diabetes prevention programmes could aid in prevalence reduction and associated costs. Leicester's Diabetes Research Centre has developed two risk scores, both suitable for use with an ethnically diverse UK population, to detect these conditions: a self-assessment questionnaire and a general practice database tool. Recommended by NICE, they have been used successfully in varied settings. Since July 2011, around 260,000 people have completed the self-assessment score online and more than 40,000 through other means.
Research founded on population-based cohort studies has directly informed NICE Public Health guidance on the prevention of diabetes. In prospective studies Wareham and Griffin demonstrated that diabetes can be predicted by a simple risk score using routinely available information and by HbA1c levels. Although people with a high HbA1c account for 36% of incidence, the majority of future cases emerge from the larger population of people with moderately elevated levels, justifying a more population-wide perspective on the prevention of diabetes. The research also showed that the same behaviour targets that are effective in high risk individuals are strongly associated with diabetes in the wider population.
Over the past 20 years, the University of Oxford's Clinical Trial Service Unit (CTSU), within the Nuffield Department of Population Health (NDPH), has conducted some of the world's largest trials and collaborative meta-analyses of trials of antiplatelet therapy, including aspirin, that have together had a major ongoing and incremental impact on the treatment and prevention of cardiovascular disease. They have helped ensure that antiplatelet therapy is widely used both in the acute care of patients with heart attacks and for the secondary prevention of heart attacks and strokes in high-risk patients. This research has been recognised as the gold standard for international guidelines, and has been instrumental in changing prescribing labelling for aspirin.
Impact: Health and welfare; the GRACE risk score (derived using data from 102,000 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in 30 countries) identifies high-risk ACS patients more effectively than do alternative methods.
Significance: GRACE is now a reference standard and has resulted in international guideline changes. It is estimated to save 30-80 lives for every 10,000 patients presenting with non-ST elevation ACS.
Beneficiaries: Patients with ACS; the NHS and healthcare delivery organisations.
Attribution: All work was led by Fox (UoE) with co-chair Gore (University of Massachusetts) and was developed from Edinburgh-based studies.
Reach: Worldwide: guidelines adopted in more than 55 countries; >10,000 downloads of app.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest heart rhythm abnormality, affecting around 8.8 million people in the European Union, and confers a substantial risk of stroke and death. It accounts for one third of hospital admissions for cardiac rhythm disturbances, and the rate of AF-related admissions has continued to rise in recent years. The work of Prof Gregory Lip and Dr Deirdre Lane has made Birmingham an internationally-respected centre of excellence for research in AF, delivering crucial impacts in international clinical practice guidelines and improvements in patient care within three main areas: treatment decisions related to stroke and bleeding risk, screening practice in primary care, and stroke and bleeding risk assessment, ultimately reducing morbidity and mortality for a significant proportion of the population, particularly among the elderly.
Studies coordinated by the University of Oxford's Clinical Trial Service Unit (CTSU) within the Nuffield Department of Population Health (NDPH) have strongly influenced the labelling of statin medication internationally, treatment guidelines, and the resulting changes in prescribing have contributed to reductions in mortality and morbidity from heart attack and ischaemic stroke in many countries. CTSU's randomised trials and meta-analyses of trials have shown that lowering low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol safely reduces the risk of heart attacks, strokes and revascularisation procedures in a wide range of people, and work conducted in collaboration with the NDPH's Health Economic Research Centre has provided clear evidence of cost-effectiveness of statins.
Capewell's MRC/EU/NIHR funded IMPACT programme has been developed at the University of Liverpool (UoL) since 1999. It examines why cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates have recently halved in the UK, USA and Europe (mainly risk factor improvements plus modern treatments), and why CVD rates are increasing in China and most developing countries (adverse risk factor trends reflecting a Westernised diet). Results have informed CVD prevention strategies in the UK and beyond, notably NICE Guidance on CVD prevention in whole populations. The strong NICE recommendations on diet and tobacco were recently endorsed in NICE Commissioning Guidance and European and American guidance.