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Research at Lancaster led to a novel approach to detect the source of cases of campylobacteriosis (a bacterial foodborne disease). The application of this method to data from New Zealand pin- pointed that New-Zealand's high rate of cases was linked to the eating of contaminated poultry. These results were a key part of the evidence used by New Zealand's Food Safety Authority to introduce a new code of practice for the poultry industry. The impact of this code of practice has been a halving of the number of reported cases of campylobacteriosis in New Zealand (from around 16,000 cases in 2006 to less than 7,000 in 2008). With notification rates estimated as 1 in 10, this corresponds to around 90,000 fewer actual cases per year. The saving for the New Zealand economy during the REF census period has been independently estimated as between £100M and £150M.
The largest investment banks in London each have thousands of servers largely devoted to Monte Carlo simulations, and to quantify their risks and satisfy regulatory demands they need to be able to calculate huge numbers of sensitivities (defined below) known collectively as "Greeks". An adjoint technique developed by Professor Mike Giles in 2006 greatly reduced the computational complexity of these calculations. The technique is used extensively by Credit Suisse and other major banks, reducing their computing costs and energy consumption. It has also led to the Numerical Algorithms Group developing new software to support the banks in exploiting this new adjoint approach to computing sensitivities.
Professor Peter Giblin (Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Liverpool), together with collaborators, used methods from singularity theory to develop an approach for recovering 3-d information from 2-d images, such as photos. In the past decade, these have been implemented and built upon by software engineers, leading to significant cultural, economic and societal impacts. These include the creation of an innovative 25m high sculpture of the human body in the Netherlands by the sculptor Antony Gormley and the virtual modelling of clothing on online clothing websites such as Tesco's (Virtual Changing Room by Tesco/F&F). These have reached thousands of consumers worldwide and represent a significant commercial success for the company which developed the software.
Researchers in the Centre for the Mathematics of Human Behaviour at the University of Reading have developed a novel approach for the real-time monitoring of evolving social networks. These networks, in which connections between individuals change over time, are an important opportunity for online advertising. The research has been used in collaboration with Bloom Media Ltd to develop a new tool that gives their clients a better understanding of the impacts of social media campaigns. As a result Bloom are leading the field in this area, allowing them to attract major new clients and leading to significant growth of the business. The company now directly employs highly skilled mathematics graduates specifically to work in this area.
Mathematical models recently developed in York have improved our understanding of the dynamics of marine ecosystems. They underpin paradigm-changing proposals to orient fisheries policy towards a "balanced harvest" and away from the traditional selective harvesting of species and sizes. These proposals have:
Small area estimation (SAE) describes the use of Bayesian modelling of survey and administrative data in order to provide estimates of survey responses at a much finer level than is possible from the survey alone. Over the recent past, academic publications have mostly targeted the development of the methodology for SAE using small-scale examples. Only predictions on the basis of realistically sized samples have the potential to impact on governance and our contribution is to fill a niche by delivering such SAEs on a national scale through the use of a scaling method. The impact case study concerns the use of these small area predictions to develop disease-level predictions for some 8,000 GPs in England and so to produce a funding formula for use in primary care that has informed the allocation of billions of pounds of NHS money. The value of the model has been recognised in NHS guidelines. The methodology has begun to have impact in other areas, including the BIS `Skills for Life' survey.
High Performance Computing (HPC) is a key element in our research. The Particle Physics Group has accumulated expertise in the development and optimisation of coding paradigms for specific supercomputer hardware. Our codes are deployed on supercomputers around the world, producing high-profile research results. We have developed a simulation environment, BSMBench, that is, on the one hand, flexible enough to run on major supercomputer platforms and, on the other hand, pushes supercomputers to their limits. These codes are used by IBM and Fujitsu Siemens for benchmarking their large installations and mainframes. The third party company BSMBench Ltd has commercialised the usage of our codes for analysing and optimising HPC systems of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Researchers in the Department of Mathematics at Swansea University have developed novel geometric methods for image processing, feature extraction and shape interrogation. The research has delivered commercial and clinical impact in a variety of settings, ranging from new water marking techniques to improve piracy detection in the film industry, to medical research investigating the replacement of traditional CT scans with safer MR scans. The research has also delivered an automatic feature and gap detection tool that has been successfully applied to aircraft data files provided by BAE Systems. A consultancy company is exploiting the methods and a licence for the commercialisation of the technology is in process.
The Variable Life-Adjusted Display (VLAD) is a graphical tool for monitoring clinical outcomes. It has been widely adopted by UK cardiac surgery centres, and has helped a shift in culture towards more open outcome assessment in adult cardiac surgery, which has been credited with reduced mortality rates. VLAD is also being used for a broad range of other clinical outcomes by regulatory bodies worldwide. For example, Queensland Health uses VLAD as a major part of its Patient Safety and Quality Improvement Service to monitor 34 outcomes across 64 public hospitals, and NHS Blood and Transplant uses VLAD to monitor early outcomes of all UK transplants.
Since its launch in 2009, the mobile phone package price comparison tool Billmonitor has identified £35 million worth of savings available to the 110,000 users whose bills have been analysed. It was the first price comparison tool to be accredited by Ofcom and it has been widely praised in the media. Exploiting techniques that they had developed for applications in finance and genetics, University of Oxford researchers Chris Holmes and Nicolai Meinshausen developed the statistical algorithms underpinning the package, which uses simulation-based inference and careful statistical modelling to analyse users' phone bill data. It searches over 2.4 million available packages to identify the best mobile phone deal for each user's particular pattern of usage. Widely quoted in the press, reports in 2011 and 2012 from the Billmonitor team estimated that approximately three quarters of mobile phone customers are on the wrong tariff, with an overspend of around 40%.