Improved decision-making for traders and private investors in financial markets
Submitting Institution
Open UniversityUnit of Assessment
Business and Management StudiesSummary Impact Type
EconomicResearch Subject Area(s)
Economics: Econometrics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment
Psychology and Cognitive Sciences: Psychology
Summary of the impact
Research from the Open University Business School (OUBS) on the practices
of traders and the link between emotions and financial decision-making has
underpinned developments in a new client education platform at a leading
European bank, Saxo Bank. The bank has created training tools to support
improvements in client decision-making and trading and made these
available on its public portal to its own clients and the public as part
of its value proposition. The research has also led to development of the
BBC Lab UK Big Money Test which was featured in the BBC television
series Watchdog. The research is influencing policy makers in the
UK and internationally and has been instrumental in the formation a new
private-sector firm.
Underpinning research
The underpinning research is part of a sustained stream that started at
OUBS when Professor Fenton-O'Creevy joined in 1997 and has continued and
developed to the present. The research shows that emotions and their
regulation play a central role in traders' decision-making and
performance, whether professionals employed in financial institutions or
private investors.
The research located at OUBS commenced with Professor Fenton-O'Creevy's
analysis, theory development and publication of key outputs based on data
that had been collected whilst at London Business School. A number of
linked outputs explored and demonstrated the impact of particular
emotion-driven biases and emotion regulation approaches. For example,
Professor Fenton-O'Creevy found an inverse association between propensity
to illusions of control (a bias arising from avoidance of negative
emotion) and sound financial decision-making. It has also shown that there
are differences between high and low performing traders in the strategies
that they adopt for emotion regulation and that these have material
consequences for trader behaviour and performance. His research found that
traders deploying antecedent-focused emotion regulation strategies perform
better than those employing primarily response-focused strategies.
Later research, undertaken at OUBS, combined physiological measures with
the previous methods of interviewing, observation and analysis of
biographical data. The heart rate of professional traders during trading
in changing market conditions was measured, and Professor Fenton- O'Creevy
and colleagues found a significant inverse relationship between high
frequency heart rate variability (HF HRV) and market volatility and a
positive relationship between HF HRV and trader experience. This suggests
that emotion regulation is an important facet of trader expertise and that
the learning effects demonstrated in financial markets may include
improved emotion regulation as an important component of that learning.
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the research has been extended to
study the role of emotion regulation in the financial decision-making of
private investors in the stock market. A major part of this work has been
undertaken by means of an EU-funded project called `eXcellence in Decision
making through Enhanced Learning in Immersive Applications' (xDelia: €3.2m
FEC; €1m for OU). This project developed a technology-based learning
intervention, called the xDelia Learning Pathway, based on a range of
technologies, including wearable bio-sensors and serious games. Drawing on
the findings of the earlier stream of research, the Learning Pathway
builds awareness of emotions and develops emotion regulation skills aimed
at improving financial decision-making. This intervention is suitable for
both professional traders and private investors. Saxo Bank is a
collaborator in xDelia and has contributed to the development of the
online tools to aid investment decision-making by its clients.
References to the research
Authors shown in bold are Open University Business School staff.
i. Fenton-O'Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., Soane, E. & Willman,
P. (2003) `Trading on illusions: unrealistic perceptions of control and
trading performance', Journal of Occupational and Organizational
Psychology, 76(1), pp 53-68 online at http://oro.open.ac.uk/1317/
(Quality indicator: ABS 4*)
ii. Fenton-O'Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., Soane, E. & Willman,
P. (2004) Traders: Risks, Decisions and Management in Financial
Markets, Oxford: Oxford University Press. (Quality indicators:
high-quality publisher with substantial sales - Hardback: total 1,851;
Paperback: total 1,153)
iii. Willman, P., Fenton-O'Creevy, M., Nicholson, N. & Soane,
E. (2006) `Noise trading and the management of operational risk; firms,
traders and irrationality in financial markets', Journal of Management
Studies, 43(6), pp 1357-74 online at http://oro.open.ac.uk/10040/
(Quality indicator: ABS 4*)
iv. Fenton-O'Creevy, M., Soane, E., Nicholson, N. & Willman,
P. (2011) `Thinking, feeling and deciding: The influence of emotions on
the decision-making and performance of traders', Journal of
Organizational Behavior, 32(8), 1044-1061. doi: 10.1002/job.720
online at http://oro.open.ac.uk/31984/
(Quality indicator: ABS 4*)
v. Fenton-O'Creevy, M., Lins, J., Vohra, S., Richards,
D., Davies, G. & Schaaff, K. (2012) `Emotion regulation
and trader expertise: heart rate variability on the trading floor', Journal
of Neuroscience, Psychology and Economics, 5(4), pp 227-37 online at
http://oro.open.ac.uk/34212/
(Quality indicator: Published by the American Psychological Association,
Impact Factor 1.89 and H index of 5 would put this equivalent to ABS
3*/4*)
Grants
2009-2012: €3.2m; €1m for OU awarded by EU to a consortium of 7
institutions with the OU contribution led by M. Fenton-O'Creevy for the
project entitled `eXcellence in Decision making through Enhanced Learning
in Immersive Applications'. and 'xDelia Final Report: Emotion-Centred
Financial Decision Making and Learning,' Open University: Milton Keynes,
UK. Online at
http://oro.open.ac.uk/34544/1/Final%20report%20-%20publishable%20format.pdf
and www.xdelia.org).
Details of the impact
This research filled an important gap in knowledge about the links
between emotions, emotion regulation and performance in financial
decision-making. Poor financial decision-making, by both professionals and
private investors, has been identified as a key contributor to the 2008
financial crisis, and the long-term and profound damage of that crisis
demonstrates the importance of these failures. This research has made an
economic impact for an individual bank and a widespread social impact
through improving the awareness and skills of individual investors and
financial consumers.
A major commercial impact of the research has been on the European online
bank, Saxo Bank (http://www.saxobank.com),
which was also a partner in the xDelia research. As an online bank, an
important part of their client attraction and service is via their online
TradingFloor.com. Outputs of Professor Fenton-O'Creevy's research,
particularly the outputs from the xDelia project, have been included in a
dedicated educational section of TradingFloor.com called `Train Your
Brain' (evidence 1 below). This section presents the findings of the
research as a two-part, online resource titled `The Emotions and Trading
Biases Course', which includes:
- an online questionnaire developed by Professor Fenton-O'Creevy and
collaborators that allows users to identify their emotional biases when
making financial decisions; feedback on the questionnaire is provided
via videos designed by Professor Fenton-O'Creevy and Saxo Bank in the
xDelia project so that individuals are made aware of their own biases;
- a diagnostic online game based on the findings of the underpinning
research, providing further insight into users' emotional biases.
The Train Your Brain web pages explicitly reference the input from
Professor Fenton-O'Creevy's xDelia project, provide the summary to the
xDelia final report and refer users to the xDelia project website. Saxo
Bank's TradingFloor.com portal has a broad reach, being available to the
bank's customers and the general public, and has over 6,000 registered
users (as of Dec 2012). The Bank views the provision of `Train Your Brain'
and the `Emotions and Trading Biases Course' as important in supporting
the development of their clients, and sees them as a significant part of
the educational and development offerings to both of these groups, and as
part of their customer satisfaction and retention strategy. The Head of
Research and Innovation at Saxo Bank stated:
`Professor Fenton-O'Creevy's collaboration with Saxo Bank through these
several years has been very valuable to us in several ways. In general,
his knowledge and insights concerning the psychology of trading and
investment has helped the bank target new areas of focus and craft tools
and processes for approaching these areas. Through formal research and
many important discussions, Professor Fenton-O'Creevy has helped the bank
to develop ideas concerning investor education and training of its
employees and to put together client-facing resources that represent part
of the bank's value proposition. This contribution has helped provide a
foundation and framework that the bank continues to build upon.' (2).
The underpinning research has also led to significant social impact.
Professor Fenton-O'Creevy has worked with Prof Adrian Furnham (UCL) and
the BBC's Lab UK to produce `The Big Money Test'. This online
test, which is hosted on the BBC's Lab UK website, invites members of the
public to participate in an in-depth (20 mins) questionnaire about their
emotions and financial decision making. They then receive customised
feedback in the form of videos recorded by Martin Lewis (of
moneysavingexpert.com), which are based upon the underpinning research
(3). These videos explain the practical meaning of key elements of their
results and offer tips on management of personal finances. This
interaction and personalised feedback ensures a move beyond widespread
public engagement to social impact on the understanding and skills of
individuals. Further interest in The Big Money Test has been
generated by its being featured on the BBC's peak-time consumer affairs
programme, Watchdog. The Big Money Test has had
considerable reach, with over 109,000 participants (as of April 2012).
The underpinning research also provided the basis for Professor
Fenton-O'Creevy's role as an Academic Advisor for BBC2's documentary on
the causes and ramifications of the financial crisis, titled Love of
Money (2009). This role involved providing academic and research
guidance to the production team and overseeing the provision of supporting
resources, which are usually provided online. The series had an average
audience of 1.3 million per episode and an audience appreciation measure
above the BBC average (4). Similar to other programmes co-produced
by the OUBS with the BBC, this series attracted a wider demographic mix
than other specialist programmes, including groups identified by the BBC
as hard to reach. The programme also had a higher than average proportion
of viewers accessing the supporting online materials, again demonstrating
that the programmes and their support resources go beyond general public
engagement and achieve impact at the individual level.
Further social impact has been generated through the production of a
podcast on iTunes U titled Money and Emotions, which has been
downloaded over 21,000 times. Professor Fenton-O'Creevy has also authored
two series of articles for The Telegraph Business Section, both
discussing the role of emotions in financial decision-making and trading.
More recently, the underpinning research has had an impact on both UK and
international policy makers through invited meetings and presentations.
Professor Fenton-O'Creevy gave an invited presentation at the OECD
Investor Education Conference on recognising the role of emotions in
investor education (3-4 Feb 2012, Goa, India). Following personal
invitations, Professor Fenton- O'Creevy provided invited input into the
financial education strategy of the UK's Money Advice Service. He also was
invited to meet the New Zealand Government Commissioner with
responsibility for Financial Literacy and Retirement Income. The
Commissioner commented after the meeting
`Thank you very much for sharing the information about the xDelia
project. Our office has used the information to help develop our thinking
regarding our financial literacy programme.' (5)
Professor Fenton-O'Creevy also met with officials from the Central Bank
of Brazil (Feb 2013) who subsequently included findings from the research
in training events they ran for their staff in the Central Bank and for
the Executive of the Brazilian National Strategy for Financial Education
(6).
Professor Fenton-O'Creevy's research findings have also been instrumental
in the formation and development of the firm Essentia Analytics Ltd (7),
to which he was invited to join the Advisory Board in May 2013. Essentia
Analytics develops tools and coaching approaches based on behavioural
approaches to financial decision-making to support the performance of fund
managers and other professional financial decision makers. The CEO of
Essentia has said:
`Professor Fenton-O'Creevy's work bridges a crucial gap between
Behavioural Finance theory and its application. In our quest to help
professional investors make more skilled investment decisions, we draw
upon it gratefully and usefully.' (8)
Sources to corroborate the impact
- Saxo Bank's trading platform that offers investors the opportunity to
use the serious games developed by Professor Fenton-O'Creevy as part of
the xDelia project (see references to the research for grant details) is
online at http://www.tradingfloor.com/topics/train-your-brain
- Personal email from Head of Research and Innovation at Saxo Bank —
available on request.
- BBC Big Money Test online at
https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/labuk/experiments/money/
- Independent measure by GfK NOP on behalf of the BBC — can be
substantiated on request.
- Personal email from Retirement Commissioner, Commission for Financial
Literacy and Retirement Income, New Zealand Government — available on
request.
- Personal email from Brazilian International Association for Research
in Economic Psychology — available on request.
- Profile of Essentia Analytics in FT.com stating, `The technology, to
be launched this week, has been developed by Essentia Analytics with the
help of psychology and human behaviour experts as well as computer and
software specialists', is online at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8dfc834c-
1ddf-11e3-85e0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eyiRC700
- Personal email from CEO of Essentia Analytics Ltd — available on
request.