Changes in Intergenerational Mobility: Research informing policy and public debate
Submitting Institution
University of SurreyUnit of Assessment
Economics and EconometricsSummary Impact Type
EconomicResearch Subject Area(s)
Economics: Applied Economics
Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration
Summary of the impact
The association between incomes across generations is known as
`intergenerational mobility'.
Knowledge of this is important for understanding the extent of inequality
within society and can
measure equality of opportunity. Improving such mobility has been central
to current (and
previous) Government policy.
Research carried out at Surrey, along with the Centre for Economic
Performance (CEP), has
contributed significantly to policy and public debate on the extent and
drivers of intergenerational
mobility in Britain. It has featured in UK Government and OECD outputs;
and contributed directly to
Government policy on intergenerational mobility.
Related policies directly influenced by the research include Family Nurse
Partnerships (costing
£17.5m), free nursery provision for disadvantaged 2-year olds (costing
£760m by 2014-15) and the
funding of a new 2012 cohort study (£33.5m). The research has also
attracted considerable
national media attention.
Underpinning research
Research at Surrey (particularly by Blanden) since 2005 has been carried
out with the Centre for
Economic Performance (CEP), where Blanden is a visiting Research
Associate. She has been at
the "core of the team producing a number of extremely important papers"
(see [C1) in the area,
undertaking a majority of the empirical research, raising research income
and organising a major
conference attended by policy makers and media.
Having established that intergenerational mobility was lower in 1970 than
1958, the research
progressed to consider the mechanisms that led to changes in this
mobility. In work presented in a
special session of the Royal Economics Society 2006, paper (1) used a
decomposition approach to
highlight the mechanisms that generated changes in intergenerational
mobility. The key
mechanism discovered was the increasingly unequal access to higher
education in the UK, in part
reinforced by a strengthening relationship between parental income and
better non-cognitive skills
amongst children. Stated differently, in the second cohort higher income
families were more likely
to have children with good non-cognitive skills who then went on to
university.
In work published in 2012 (paper (2)), but initially produced as a
background paper for the Sutton
Trust-Carnegie Foundation Transatlantic Summit on intergenerational
mobility, the research
provided the first systematic international comparison of
intergenerational mobility using a variety
of measures, income, education and social class. This work revealed that
the UK compares poorly
with other OECD nations, although it also stressed the difficulty of
forming simple league tables
here.
As is natural for influential findings, the results that
intergenerational mobility previously declined in
Britain, and the mechanism for this, have been subject to scrutiny.
Results on the trend in
intergenerational mobility based on social class are not always consistent
with those based on
income (and described above). A further paper in this series (paper (3))
explores why this is the
case. There are two important elements in this paper. First, it is
demonstrated that the result
above is robust, and not a consequence of measurement error. Second, it is
demonstrated that
results based on income differ because of large and persistent
intergenerational inequalities in
incomes among families of the same social class. This debate has been
conducted with eminent
sociologists Goldthorpe and Erikson.
In order to update our knowledge about how intergenerational mobility has
evolved more recently
we can observe how gaps in early outcomes and educational achievements
have evolved for more
recent cohorts and use these to predict future patterns of mobility. This
approach has been taken
in work published in 2008 (paper (4)) and in a current project (paper (5))
which examines the
implications of education policy for mobility and shows the extent to
which looking at average
measures of educational achievement (as often happens in policy debate)
may be misleading.
References to the research
1. Blanden, Gregg & Macmillan (2007), `Accounting for
Intergenerational Persistence:
Noncognitive Skills, Ability and Education', Economic Journal
Conference Volume, March
2007, C43-C60.
2. Blanden (2011), `Cross-national rankings of intergenerational
mobility: a comparison of
approaches from economics and sociology', Journal of Economic Surveys,
Volume 27 (1),
pp. 38-73. (Note that this paper is sometimes referred to as `How much can
we learn from
international comparisons of intergenerational mobility?')
3. Blanden, Gregg & Macmillan (2013), `Intergenerational
persistence in income and social
class: The impact of within-group inequality', Journal of Royal
Statistical Society Series A,
Volume 176(2), pp. 541-563.
4. Blanden & Machin (2008), `Up and Down the Generational
Income Ladder in Britain: Past
Changes and Future Prospects', National Institute Economic Review,
July 2008, pp. 101-116.
(Note that this paper is sometimes referred to as `Recent changes in
intergenerational
mobility'.)
5. Blanden & Macmillan (2013), `Education and
intergenerational mobility: Help or
hindrance?', forthcoming as Centre for the Analysis of Social Exclusion,
LSE, Working
Paper.
Details of the impact
The research described above has produced several kinds of impact:
(a) impact on policy debate within Government
(b) impact on specific policies
(c) impact on other policy stakeholders
(d) impact on national media debate
(a) Impact on policy debate within Government
Blanden has provided reviews of her work and policy advice to a number of
organisations. As [C2]
reports, in January 2008 she was invited to 10 Downing Street to explain
her findings at a meeting
including Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband (Cabinet Office
Minister); [C1] notes that
this input "helped to fashion the [2009] White Paper". In the same year
she gave evidence based
on the above research to the Children and Families Select Committee and
the Liberal Democrat
Social Mobility Commission. Blanden advised meetings about the Cabinet
Office Discussion
Paper `Getting On, Getting Ahead' [C4]. In 2011, she advised officials at
the Cabinet Office on the
Government's Social Mobility Strategy and was a member of Alan Milburn's
advisory group in his
capacity as Independent Reviewer on Social Mobility. In 2013, she used
paper (5) to advise
officials from the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission about the
content of their annual
report — see [C3].
(b) Impact on specific policies
The last two Governments have prioritised improving intergenerational
mobility, as confirmed in the
2009 Social Mobility White Paper and the 2011 Social Mobility Strategy. It
can be clearly
demonstrated that Surrey research influenced this: [C3] describes the work
as "very influential in
getting mobility onto the Government's policy agenda" and "is drawn on
heavily in the
Government's social mobility strategy". It features eight times in the
2008 Cabinet Office
Discussion Paper which preceded the White Paper (see [C4]) and papers (1)
and (3) are "heavily
referenced" according to [C2] in the recent Social Mobility Strategy [C5].
As a particular example,
the chapter on `Foundation Years' recognises the findings that
socioeconomic differences in child
development appear early (paper (1)) and that poor non-cognitive skills
diminish mobility (paper
(2)).
In turn, the Strategy uses these findings to justify two other "specific
instances of [this] research
influencing Government policy since 2008" (quoted from [C2] — see also
[C1]): (i) an expansion of
Family Nurse Partnerships, which increases the number of families
benefiting from 6000 to 13000
by 2015 (costing £17.5m) and (ii) an increase in the number of 2-year olds
benefiting from free
nursery places to about 20% of the cohort by 2015 (ultimately costing
£760m). In addition, the
importance of the findings on mobility drawn from the 1958, 1970 and 2000
cohorts has led to
Government funding of £33.5m for a new birth cohort study (from 2012),
offering wide benefits for
social science and policy (see paragraphs 6.17 and 6.18 of [C5]).
(c) Impact on policy debate within other policy
stakeholders
Surrey's work has also influenced groups outside of Government. It
warranted six references in
the National Equalities Panel report (see [C6]) and received international
attention in the OECD's
`Growing Unequal' (see [C7]). Blanden has spoken about the work to the
Bridge Group, Into
University and Universities UK. Two particularly strong examples of the
research generating
impact beyond Government are two conferences held in Summer 2008. The
first was the Sutton
Trust-Carnegie Foundation Transatlantic Summit where Blanden presented the
opening paper on
international comparisons of mobility (now paper (3)); this conference was
designed to promote
policy debate and a broad spectrum of US and UK policy makers attended;
[C1] describes the
importance of the conference, and notes that "[this] work in particular
helped to set the future
research priorities for the [Sutton] Trust". The second conference, held
at LSE in Summer 2008,
was organised by Blanden and Kirstine Hansen (Institute of Education).
This included a policy
round table involving Lynn Featherstone (then Minister for Equalities),
David Willetts (Minister for
Universities and Science), Polly Toynbee (The Guardian) and Lee Elliott
Major (the Sutton Trust).
The attendees ranged across academia, Government, think tanks and policy
bodies and Toynbee
explicitly referred to results in papers (1)-(4) in a subsequent article
[C8].
(d) Impact on media debate
The research in Section 2 has attracted extensive and continuing media
attention; [C2] places it "at
the heart of the lively media debate" on intergenerational mobility, and
the research's "frequent
mentions in the press have raised public awareness ... and served to
develop the debate in
Government". As a result, CEP has recorded more than 10 media reports
which explicitly
mentioned this research in both 2010 and 2011. In addition, Blanden was
interviewed on BBC
Radio Five Live (2010) and BBC Radio 4's World at One (2013), and was
consulted about the
preparation of the BBC documentary in (2011) [C9]. The controversy between
the work of
economists and sociologists (paper (4)) has also attracted media attention
— see [C8].
Sources to corroborate the impact
Sources selected in line with REF Guidelines:
"Independent documentary evidence of links between research and
claimed impacts."
[C1] Director of Development and Policy at the Sutton Trust.
(provided statement)
[C2] Director of IPPR and former Head of the Number 10 Downing
Street Policy Unit. (provided
statement)
[C3] Head of Policy (Children) at the Social Mobility and Child
Poverty Commission. (provided
statement)
"Citation in a public discussion, consultation document ... Evidence
of citation in policy ..."
[C4] `Getting On, Getting Ahead' Cabinet Office Discussion Paper
November 2008. Work
referenced on pages 26, 29, 32, 35, 66, 70, 75 and 77.
[C5] `Opening Doors, Breaking Barriers: A Strategy for Social
Mobility' Cabinet Office April 2011.
Work referenced on pages 5, 16, 17, 20, 26 and 30.
[C6] `An Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK: Report of the
National Equalities Panel'
January 2010. Work referenced on pages 326, 327, 328, 334 and 335.
[C7] `Growing Unequal: Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD
Countries' OECD 2008. Work
referenced on page 208 and numerous other references in footnotes.
"Citation by journalists, broadcasters ... Public debate in the
media."
[C8] Journalists: Polly Toynbee in The Guardian 5th
July 2008 `The education boom has proved a
curse for the poor'; Paul Johnson in Prospect Magazine `Going
down' Spring 2011; Tom
Clark in The Guardian 10th March 2010 `Is social
mobility dead?'; David Goodhart in Prospect
Magazine `More mobile than we think' Winter 2008.
[C9] Broadcasters: `Who gets the best jobs?' BBC TV, March
2013; BBC Radio Five Live
interview 2010; BBC World at One interview 16th November 2013.