Summary of the impact

Research undertaken by Dr. Harsh Pant has examined the cause and consequences of India's rise as a global power. The research findings have had broad reach and have had influence in shaping the views of the US State and Defense Departments, the US Congress, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the Israeli Ministry of External Affairs, the Swedish Ministry of Defence and the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Ministry of Defence.

Underpinning research

The research was undertaken by Dr. Pant between 2006 and 2012. Pant has been Category A Staff at the Unit throughout this period. This research was funded by the British Academy, the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute and fellowships from the Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania; the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore; the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies, McGill University; and the Australia-India Institute of the University of Melbourne.

The research has spanned a number of inter-related strands which aim to expose the impact of India as a rising global power in international relations, and help policy makers in better understanding what this implies for actionable policy. This research has involved close engagement with stakeholders and extensive field research by Pant in India and the United States. The research produced insights on how Indian policy-makers are trying to use their new-found global heft in bilateral and multilateral fora; how India is interacting with major global powers such as the US and China; and what are the constraints that still inhibit India from achieving its full potential on the global stage with its implications for global balance of power.

There has been a growing discussion in academic and policy circles about the rise of India as a global power. Pant's insights provide a detailed assessment of the changing Indian foreign policy in various dimensions, producing analyses that underline how a rising India is dealing with major global issues and relationships in a significantly different manner than in the past. Pant's research has shown how India will follow a significantly different policy trajectory in global politics compared to other major powers of the past and present. His research has underlined the centrality of China as well as domestic political and institutional constraints in shaping Indian foreign policy priorities, especially in so far as New Delhi's burgeoning ties with Washington are concerned. These factors have been critical in the manner US-India ties have evolved over the last two decades, first generating euphoria and then leading to disappointment about the trajectory of the relationship. Pant's research on the US-India civil nuclear energy pact has underlined the role of structural factors suggesting that the rise of China and the need to manage China's rise in Asia was one of the most significant reasons why New Delhi and Washington decided to undertake the civilian nuclear energy cooperation deal despite strong opposition in the domestic polity of both nations.

References to the research

Where URLs or DOIs are not provided, hard copies are available on request.

Supporting research grants:

Part of the research for the US-India Nuclear Deal was funded by the British Academy's Small Research Grant (£4,656)

India's `Af-Pak' Conundrum was produced as part of the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute Research Grant, W91QF0-11-P-0081 ($5,720)

Details of the impact

Pant's published work on India's changing foreign and security policy has attracted wide attention in India and in particular, the US where a reinvention of the US-India partnership is underway. The US-India nuclear pact was one of the most significant foreign policy moves made by the George W. Bush Administration to strengthen the partnership with India. But it was a highly contentious move and provoked a lot of debate in India and in Washington. Pant was involved in this debate through his extensive writings in the Indian and global media (ref (b)). His research on the role of China and the changing regional balance of power was one of the factors that ultimately emerged as a reason for the dampening of opposition to the nuclear deal in New Delhi and Washington.

His book, Contemporary Debates in Indian Foreign and Security Policy (ref (a)), was a required reading for senior members of the US President Barack Obama's team during his visit to India in November 2011 (email communication from a former US State Department official). A number of issues raised in the book as significant for US-India ties were reflected in the Obama Administration's outreach to New Delhi. These include America's open support for India's permanent membership in the UN Security Council, the downgrading of the role of Iran in US-India ties and the centrality of China in Indian foreign policy. Pant was invited by the US State Department to brief the US Ambassador-Designate to India in February 2012. He was also asked to attend a US-India strategic dialogue organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), which is the largest association of business organizations in India.

India's ties with Iran became a major stumbling block in New Delhi's attempt to enter into a nuclear rapprochement with Washington. Pant's research into this vital relationship (ref (c)) sheds new light on the underlying weaknesses of this relationship and continues to shape policy thinking in Washington on this score. Pant was requested to write a briefing for the India Caucus in the US Senate. Evidence of the impact of Pant's research can be found in the way in which senior officials of the Obama Administration, including the Secretary of State and the US Ambassador to India have dealt with the issue of India-Iran relations by underscoring that contrary to media portrayals, India-Iran relations are very close.

According to most political observers, the centre of gravity of global politics is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific in recent years with the rise of China and India, gradual assertion by Japan of its military profile, and a significant shift in the US global force posture in favour of the Asia-Pacific. The world seems to be entering into a "post-American" era and the international system is trying to come to grips with the rise of China and all that it implies for global peace and stability. India and China are two major powers in Asia with global aspirations and some significant conflicting interests. As a result, some amount of friction in their bilateral relationship is inevitable. Pant's research on this very important bilateral relationship (ref (a) and (d)) has led to commissioned media writings, media comments and briefings to the various arms of the US, the UK and the Indian government. Pant's contributions on the future of US-China-India triangle have shaped the policy debate in China as reflected in the commentary in state-owned media outlets.

Pant's research on the impact of the war in Afghanistan (ref (e)) on Indian security resulted in his views being sought by various governments and the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute funding. He was invited to address the Cabinet Office Annual Conference in 2009 on this issue and was invited to be a part of the report on Afghanistan in 2009 by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, the research arm of the Swedish Ministry of Defence. He was then invited by the Swedish Defence Research Agency to a follow-up policy roundtable on Afghanistan-post-2014. Pant's research has highlighted how New Delhi's own inability to articulate its policy position on Afghanistan has led to its marginalisation in the evolving policy frameworks of the West vis-a-vis Afghanistan. Pant's suggestion that India will have to up its game in Afghanistan if it wants to retain any credibility in post-2014 scenario was reflected in the signing of the Strategic Partnership agreement between New Delhi and Kabul.

Sources to corroborate the impact

all sources available on request

(i) Senior Analyst, South Asia, US State Department [see factual statement].

(ii) Former Head, South Asia Division, US State Department [see factual statement].

(iii) Director, South Asian affairs, US Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy.

(iv) Former Director of Strategy, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

(v) Head, India Team, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office [see factual statement].

(vi) Director of Research, Swedish Defense Research Agency, Ministry of Defence, Sweden.

(vii) Liaison to the Senate India Caucus [see factual statement].

(viii) Former Head of Indian Army's Think-Tank [see factual statement].

(ix) The briefing for the India Caucus of the US Senate on India-Iran ties can be found at http://www.nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/outreach/NBR_IndiaCaucus_March2012.pdf.

(x) This briefing for the India Caucus of the US Senate on India-China ties can be found at http://www.nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/outreach/NBR_IndiaCaucus_August2011.pdf.