Public Opinion and Devolution in Wales
Submitting InstitutionAberystwyth University
Unit of AssessmentPolitics and International Studies
Summary Impact TypeSocietal
Research Subject Area(s)
Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration, Political Science
Summary of the impact
The case study describes the impact of research conducted at the
Institute of Welsh Politics (IWP) on public opinion on Welsh devolution by
Professor Wyn Jones and Professor Scully. Two types of impact have been
generated by this research. First, the research has informed public policy
processes relating to the Welsh devolution settlement primarily in Wales
but also in the UK more generally. Second, the research, and its
dissemination through media, public seminars and educational activities
has resulted in impact on societal beneficiaries in Wales, specifically
through informing and shaping public discourse on and understanding of
Welsh devolution. The impact derives from ESRC-funded public opinion
surveys and key academic publications on public attitudes in Wales towards
Since its creation in 1997, the aims of the Institute for Welsh Politics
have been to provide rigorous independent analysis of Welsh politics, and
to feed research into public and policy debates relating to Welsh
democracy. This case study is centred on IWP research on public opinion in
Wales. The research was conducted at Aberystwyth by Prof. Richard Wyn
Jones and Prof. Roger Scully from 2001 up until February 2009, and was
continued at Aberystwyth by Scully until March 2012 (in on-going
collaboration with Wyn Jones). Dafydd Tristan contributed to this research
at Aberystwyth up until September 2002 and acted as the third author to
one of the articles (3.1). The impact of this research continues to be
promoted by IWP staff at Aberystwyth as detailed in section 4.
The research consists of i) surveys, the results of which have been made
publically available, and ii) analysis of these surveys in research
Prior to this research, the absence of regular Wales-specific opinion
surveys meant that popular attitudes on issues relating to the governance
of Wales were little understood. The research by Wyn Jones and Scully,
then, constitutes the first systematic examination of the evolution of
public opinion and electoral behaviour in Wales, during a period of major
developments in the operation and scope of Welsh democratic institutions.
Research conducted took place in two stages. First, research in 2001-2004
funded by the ESRC (3.4) examined the legitimacy of the devolution
settlement (3.1, 3.2). The marginal public endorsement of devolution in
1997 raised questions about the level of public support for the National
Assembly for Wales (NAW). Wyn Jones' and Scully's research has closely
tracked public attitudes towards devolution since the creation of the NAW
and in so doing has provided insights into the extent to which this major
constitutional innovation has become accepted as the appropriate form of
government by the people of Wales. They find that whilst negative
perceptions of the impact of the Assembly are widespread, opposition to
devolution has fallen substantially since the 1997 referendum and support
for further devolution has increased. Contrary to early predictions, there
is also no empirical evidence of a linkage between opposition to
devolution and non-participation in Welsh elections.
Subsequent research elaborated on those themes. Prof. Roger Scully was
the Principal Investigator for the ESRC-funded 2011 Welsh Referendum Study
(3.5). The survey was methodologically innovative in its use of 'rolling'
samples through the campaign period (thus allowing changes in attitudes
during the campaign to be tracked). The data formed the core of a major
study of the process leading up to, and the outcome of, the 2011
referendum on the granting of primary legislative powers to the NAW.
Scully's contribution to the book that emerged from this work (3.3) was
made at the IWP before his departure in March 2012. The book makes two key
arguments: firstly, that the referendum was unnecessary, given that the
issue was a technical rather than a constitutional one; secondly, that the
Welsh electorate voted 'yes' because of a genuine belief that the NAW
should have the right to make its own legislation. This latter finding
points to the growing legitimacy of Wales's devolved institutions.
References to the research
3.1 Scully, R., Wyn Jones, R. and Trystan, D. (2004) Turnout,
Participation and Legitimacy in Post-Devolution Wales. British Journal
of Political Science, 34 (3): 519-37. DOI:
10.1017/S000712340400016X. Notes on quality: peer-reviewed, published in a
well-respected journal in the field of political science; cited in
subsequent literature (Google Scholar: 20 citations).
3.2 Wyn Jones, R. and Scully, R. (2003) A Settling Will? Wales and
Devolution, Five Years On. British Elections and Parties Review,
13: 86-106. DOI: 10.1080/13689880308413089. Notes on quality:
peer-reviewed, published in a well-respected journal; cited in subsequent
literature (Google Scholar: 13 citations).
3.3 Wyn Jones, R. and Scully, R. (2012) Wales Says Yes: The 2011
Welsh Devolution Referendum. Cardiff: University of Wales Press.
ISBN: 978-0708324851. Notes on quality: peer-reviewed; well-received in
popular and academic reviews. David Moon in his review in Political
Studies, for example, argues that: `this is... the best text on
Welsh devolution I have read in a long time. Highly accessible, it
deserves not only a place on course reading lists but a readership beyond
academia' (review available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1478-9302.12016_103/full).
3.4 Economic and Social Research Council-sponsored grant awarded to
project Welsh Electoral Surveys 2001/2003 (Wales Life and Times
Studies 2001/2003). Principal Investigator: Richard Wyn Jones. Dates
of grant: 01/01/2001-31/12/2004. Value of grant: £274 984. Notes on
quality: final report graded as `Outstanding'. For published research data
3.5 Economic and Social Research Council-sponsored grant awarded to
project 2011 Welsh Referendum Study. Principal Investigator: Roger
Scully. Dates of grant: 01/02/2011-01/11/2011. Value of grant: £81 043.
Notes on quality: highly competitive research grant; successful
publications drawing on data (see 3.3 above); final report yet to be
graded by funder. For published survey data see: http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/interpol/research/research-projects/welshelectionstudy/data/
Details of the impact
The research has impacted on i. public policy processes relating to the
Welsh devolution settlement, and ii. public discourse on, and
understanding of, devolution in Welsh society.
The impact of the research on public policy processes is
three-fold. First, the research influenced the recommendations of the All
Wales Convention (AWC), a public enquiry, established in 2008 to assess
public attitudes towards devolution, and in particular, the desire to
transfer primary legislative powers to the NAW. Informed by their research
on public attitudes in Wales, Scully and Wyn Jones presented summaries of
their work to the Convention in 2008. This work was, as members of the
Convention confirm, `a key contribution to the considerations of the AWC
and a determinant of its final recommendations' (5.1, 5.2). As one member
of the Convention explains, the research was `an essential and pivotal
component of evidence collected by the Convention as part of its work'; it
`weighed heavily in discussions and unquestionably helped to shape the
recommendations of the Convention' in a way which `constitutes clear and
unambiguous impact' (5.2). The AWC recommended moving to a referendum on
further legislative powers for the NAW as they, in line with Wyn Jones'
and Scully's research findings that broad support for devolution in Wales
had developed, noted `a context of substantial support for devolution as
it stands, and clear signs of an appetite for more' (5.3). It was
`following the findings of the All Wales Convention' that on February 2,
2010 the First Minister and Deputy Minister of Welsh Government announced
their intention to ask for a referendum, a motion which was debated and
agreed to by the Assembly Members on February 9, 2010 (5.4). The resultant
`yes' vote in the 2011 referendum impacted the Welsh and British
Second, the IWP's research has impacted on other actors involved in
public policy-making processes on devolution in the UK more generally. The
research informed, for example, the more recent work of the UK
Government's Commission on Devolution, established in October 2011 to
review the present financial and constitutional arrangements in Wales. The
Commission's 2012 report on Part I of its work, prepared in November 2011,
acknowledges directly the arguments made by Wyn Jones and Scully on the
problems of conducting a referendum on a technical question (as
articulated in an article in the current affairs magazine Agenda,
drawing directly on research in their book Wales Said Yes) (5.5).
The research on public attitudes has also informed the opinions of other
key actors on future constitutional change as is evidenced by the Welsh
Government's reference to this data in its submission to Part II of
Commission's work (5.6).
Third, the IWP's work on the legitimacy of devolution has also had
secondary impact on the policy work of other organisations. This can be
seen in the Welsh Office Green Paper proposals on the reform of electoral
arrangements for Welsh Assembly elections. Some of the recommendations
made in 2012 are informed by a 2006 Electoral Commission investigation
into turnout among Welsh voters, which in turn draws on the IWP's survey
data and research findings (5.7).
In respect to the impact of IWP's research on informing and shaping
public discourse on, and understanding of, devolution in Wales,
three distinct claims for impact are made.
First, the research findings have been disseminated widely through Welsh
and English-language media (e.g. BBC radio and television, S4C, The
Guardian, Agenda, Barn). This resulted in public
commentary on the core arguments of their work. Thus, for example,
referring to their work, discussions on the motivations and structure of
the 2011 referendum, reasons for the referendum outcome, and legitimacy of
devolved institutions featured in prominent Welsh publications in 2012. A
notable example is an article `The impact of civic Wales' featured on a
prominent Welsh news magazine website `Click on Wales'. In this article
the author `reads between the lines of [the Wales Says Yes] book'
highlighting the significance of its core findings and agreeing with many
of its major conclusions. Through closely engaging with Wyn Jones' and
Scully's and arguments, the author offers his own interpretations of the
referendum process, as do the online commentators on his piece (5.8). This
indicates impact on public understanding and debate on the Welsh
Second, the research has also contributed to improving public knowledge
and debate through having influenced the work on Welsh public opinion of a
major national polling organisation, YouGov. In 2009, Scully collaborated
closely with YouGov to develop their first Wales-specific surveys. These
were very closely informed by Wyn Jones' and Scully's previous research
expertise on Welsh public opinion (5.9). The survey findings of YouGov's
work were disseminated in co-operation with Scully at well-attended
seminars in Cardiff and at Aberystwyth in October 2009, and were widely
reported in the Welsh media (5.10). This led directly to ITV commissioning
YouGov to conduct further polls between May 2010 and May 2011 (5.9).
Through assisting in further knowledge gathering and public dissemination
in this way, the research has contributed to the furthering of knowledge
on Welsh public opinion, which in turn has assisted in informing the
public debate and discourse on democracy in Wales, as the media and blog
discussions of YouGov data attest (5.10).
Third, various IWP staff have contributed to the continuous dissemination
of the research findings of Scully and Wyn Jones through educational
activities outside the HEI. For example, Dr Anwen Elias's contribution
entitled 'Political Representation' to the Open University course, Understanding
Contemporary Wales, specifically promoted Scully's and Wyn Jones'
research findings on the subject and has impacted several staff at BBC
Cymru. BBC programme makers completed the course as part of a broader
skills and experiences programme, in part `to help them give context to
items on devolution when producing content for broadcast' (5.11). BBC
Wales External Affairs Manager confirms: `Anecdotally a number of staff
members who took part in the project have mentioned that they feel they
have a better understanding and confidence in dealing [with] contemporary
and on-going issues because of the knowledge they learnt as part of the
course'. (5.11) The role of the discussion of public opinion and
devolution is mentioned specifically as continuing to be `beneficial by
giving BBC Wales' staff a basis on which they frame current and future
Further, between 2008 and 2013, research on Welsh public opinion was
promoted by IWP staff through development of online sources and delivery
of workshops for A-level and Welsh Baccalaureate students across Wales.
In terms of the former, Scully drew directly on his work on the 2011
Welsh Referendum in an article prepared for the A-level Government and
Politics website, www.politicscymru.com
(5.12). From December 2011 when the material was submitted to the website
to April 2013, this article had received more than a hundred hits (5.12),
which, considering the number of students taking Government and Politics
in Wales (estimated at around 260 a year across AS- and A-levels),
demonstrates considerable interest in public opinion on Welsh devolution
amongst the non-higher education student population in Wales.
School children's perceptions on Welsh devolution and public opinion have
also been informed through workshop sessions with secondary school
students. The most recent round of `schools sessions' which directly
focused on public opinion and devolution in Wales were delivered in June
and July 2013 by IWP staff Dr Elin Royles and Dr Huw Lewis. These
workshops promoted directly the work of Scully and Wyn Jones. Feedback
surveys of these events indicated a significant impact on the attendees.
87% either strongly agreed or agreed that the session had improved their
understanding of public attitudes towards devolution in Wales, and 85%
strongly agreed or agreed that the session had improved their
understanding of how people voted in the 2011 Welsh Devolution Referendum
Sources to corroborate the impact
5.1 Contact person: a member of the All Wales Convention.
5.2 Correspondence from a member of the All Wales Convention.
5.3 All Wales Convention Report. 2009, p. 98.
Available at: http://allwalesconvention.org/getinformed/thereport/thereport/?lang=en.
5.4 Triggering the referendum. 2 March 2011. Available at:
5.5 Empowerment and Responsibility: Financial Powers to Strengthen
Wales. Commission on Devolution in Wales, November 2012, p. 127.
5.6 Evidence submitted by the Welsh Government to the Commission on
Devolution in Wales. February 2013, p 4-5. Available at:
5.7 A Green Paper on Future Electoral Arrangements for the National
Assembly for Wales. Wales Office, May 2012, pp. 28-9. Available at:
This Green Paper refers to findings in Wales — A Poll Position: Public
Attitudes towards Assembly elections, Electoral Commission, 2006.
5.8 The impact of civic Wales, Click on Wales, 2 March 2012. Available
See also a linked reference
The day labour became Welsh, 13 March 2012. Available at:
5.9 Testimonial letter from representative of YouGov.
5.10 An example of media commentary on IWP/YouGov seminars in Blog Vaughan
Roderick, 27th October 2009 (Bant a ni; Ar y llaw arall,
Syr Emyr; Language: Welsh). Available at:
See also Betsan's Blog, 27 October 2009 (Polls Apart?). Available
5.11 Testimonial from External Affairs Manager of BBC Wales.
5.12 Correspondence from an associate of www.politicscymru.com,
19 April, 2013. Scully's article is available at: http://www.politicscymru.com/en/cat1/article24/.
5.13 Survey data on `schools session' on Welsh public opinion and
devolution with secondary school students (Language: Welsh). Sessions
organised on 28 June, 8 July and 11 July, 2013.