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OxCal is the most popular software package world-wide for calibrating and analysing dates within the carbon dating process, enabling the accurate dating of objects from the past. The brainchild of Prof. Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Director of the Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit (ORAU), OxCal is based on chronologies refined by the use of Bayesian statistical methods, and provides users with access to high-quality calibration of chronological data, now the basis for global chronologies. It is available online and free to download, and has played a highly significant role in establishing the ORAU as one of the pre-eminent international radiocarbon dating facilities. Funded by the NERC, and used widely within professional archaeology as well as other disciplines, OxCal has also played a key role in research projects (within Oxford and beyond) brought to the attention of the general public by the media.
With global demand for energy ever increasing, environmental impact has become a major priority for the oil industry. A collaboration between researchers at the University of Glasgow and Shell Global Solutions has developed GWSDAT (GroundWater Spatiotemporal Data Analysis Tool). This easy-to-use interactive software tool allows users to process and analyse groundwater pollution monitoring data efficiently, enabling Shell to respond quickly to detect and evaluate the effect of a leak or spill. Shell estimates that the savings gained by use of the monitoring tool exceed $10m over the last three years. GWSDAT is currently being used by around 200 consultants across many countries (including the UK, US, Australia and South Africa) with potentially significant impacts on the environment worldwide.
Our research has been applied directly by Aviva plc. to develop improved products in the general insurance market (e.g. household and car) and in the more specialised area of enhanced pension annuities. As a result, Aviva has become more competitive in these markets and customers are enjoying better value for money. In the case of enhanced annuities, the benefits are in the form of higher pension income for those accurately identified as facing shortened life expectancies. Aviva is the largest insurance company in the UK and the sixth largest in the world.
In a series of papers published from 1999 on, Aitken (Maxwell Institute) and collaborators applied Bayesian statistics to develop a methodology for the quantification of judicial evidence derived from forensic analyses. They proposed and implemented procedures for (i) determining the optimal size of samples that should be taken from potentially incriminating material (such as drugs seized); and (ii) the estimation of likelihood ratios characterising evidence provided by multivariate hierarchical data (such as the chemical composition of crime-scene samples). Their procedures have been recommended in international guideline documents (including a 2009 publication by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) and have been routinely used by forensic science laboratories worldwide since 2008. The research has therefore had an impact on the administration of justice, leading to a better use of evidence and accompanying judicial and economic benefits. Examples are given from laboratories in Australia, Sweden and The Netherlands.
The Thermal Oxide Reprocessing Plant (THORP) at Sellafield in Cumbria has 20% of the world's current annual nuclear reprocessing capacity. Statistical methods developed in Newcastle during commissioning of THORP are integral to the nuclear material accountancy systems that are used in all stages of reprocessing. Since 2008 a Newcastle volumetric calibration system has been the only means of determining input into the plant. Regulatory approval of the system has ensured that THORP has been able to operate throughout the REF period, that customer costing has been accurate, and that the plant has complied with international standards for the close control of nuclear materials.
Since 2008, statistical research at the University of Bristol has significantly influenced policies, practices and tools aimed at evaluating and promoting the quality of institutional and student learning in the education sector in the UK and internationally. These developments have also spread beyond the education sector and influence the inferential methods employed across government and other sectors. The underpinning research develops methodologies and a much-used suite of associated software packages that allows effective inference from complicated data structures, which are not well-modelled using traditional statistical techniques that assume homogeneity across observational units. The ability to analyse complicated data (such as pupil performance measures when measured alongside school, classroom, context and community factors) has resulted in a significant transformation of government and institutional policies and their practices in the UK, and recommendations in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) policy documents. These techniques for transforming complex data into useful evidence are well-used across the UK civil service, with consequent policy shifts in areas such as higher education admissions and the REF2014 equality and diversity criteria.
Several National Statistics Agencies (NSAs) in Europe now use tools based on UWE research to ensure published tables are protected from hacking attempts to breach data privacy. Provision of high-quality data to policy and decision makers is so important that supplying it to NSAs is often mandatory for organisations and individuals. In return, NSAs, such as the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS), must guarantee a degree of confidentiality. Our research has benefitted ONS, its clients and data providers, by exposing serious flaws in existing methodologies and techniques for protecting confidentiality and by creating tools for (i) auditing and (ii) protecting large complex tables.