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Improving the Met Office Weather and Climate Prediction Model

Summary of the impact

Research by Professor John Thuburn and his group at the University of Exeter has made several key contributions to the formulation and development of ENDGame, the new dynamical core of the Met Office weather and climate prediction model. ENDGame has been shown to deliver improved accuracy and better computational performance at high processor counts compared to the current operational dynamical core, directly impacting the technological tools available to the Met Office. These improvements will benefit users when ENDGame becomes operational in early 2014: the economic value to the UK of the weather forecasts produced by the Met Office has been estimated to be in excess of £600M pa, while climate change projections inform policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation with huge economic implications.

Submitting Institution

University of Exeter

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering

Modelling oceanic internal waves to enhance marine and naval predictions and practices

Summary of the impact

Large-amplitude horizontally propagating internal solitary waves commonly occur in the interior of the ocean. This case study presents evidence to demonstrate the impact of research conducted by Professor Grimshaw at Loughborough University on the development and utilisation of Korteweg- de Vries (KdV) models of these waves, which has formed the paradigm for the theoretical modelling and practical prediction of these waves.

These waves are highly significant for sediment transport, continental shelf biology and interior ocean mixing, while their associated currents cause strong forces on marine platforms, underwater pipelines and submersibles, and the strong distortion of the density field has a severe impact on acoustic signalling.

The theory developed at Loughborough University has had substantial impact on the strategies developed by marine and naval engineers and scientists in dealing with these issues.

Submitting Institution

Loughborough University

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

2: Modelling extreme waves and their loads on offshore structures

Summary of the impact

The impact arises from the study of extreme ocean waves and their interaction with marine structures. It is relevant to the offshore, shipping, coastal and marine renewables industries and has been both economic and regulatory, involving:

(a) The establishment of revised guidelines for the design of new structures / vessels.

(b) Enhancing best practice, both from an economic and a safety perspective.

(c) Reducing the uncertainty in critical design issues, thereby improving overall reliability.

(d) Enabling "end-of-life" extensions for existing structures.

(e) Facilitating the effective decommissioning of redundant structures.

(f) Contributing to the development of new industrial R&D equipment, thereby assisting specialist UK manufacturers to secure international orders.

Submitting Institution

Imperial College London

Unit of Assessment

Civil and Construction Engineering

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering

13 - Advanced Wavemaker Designs

Summary of the impact

Edinburgh Designs Ltd., (EDL) was spun-out to exploit ERPE research from the original Wave Power Group. With six staff and an annual turnover approaching £2M EDL has supplied the equipment and control systems for wave tanks in 19 countries including the world's largest computer-controlled wave test facility, the US Navy Manoeuvring and Station Keeping Tank. They are currently completing the world's first circular tank, combining waves with currents in any relative direction, which is operated by the 6 person company, "FloWave" EDL, still run by the founding staff, it is the world-leading supplier of wave-making technology for scientific and recreational facilities.

Submitting Institutions

Heriot-Watt University,University of Edinburgh

Unit of Assessment

General Engineering

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering
Medical and Health Sciences: Neurosciences

Flood risk management is strengthened across the world as a result of inundation models developed at Bristol

Summary of the impact

A two-dimensional flood inundation model called LISFLOOD-FP, which was created by a team led by Professor Paul Bates at the University of Bristol, has served as a blueprint for the flood risk management industry in the UK and many other countries. The documentation and published research for the original model, developed in 1999, and the subsequent improvements made in over a decade of research, have been integrated into clones of LISFLOOD-FP that have been produced by numerous risk management consultancies. This has not only saved commercial code developers' time but also improved the predictive capability of models used in a multimillion pound global industry that affects tens of millions of people annually. Between 2008 and 2013, clones of LISFLOOD-FP have been used to: i) develop national flood risk products for countries around the world; ii) facilitate the pricing of flood re-insurance contracts in a number of territories worldwide; and iii) undertake numerous individual flood inundation mapping studies in the UK and overseas. In the UK alone, risk assessments from LISFLOOD-FP clones are used in the Environment Agency's Flood Map (accessed on average 300,000 times a month by 50,000 unique browsers), in every property legal search, in every planning application assessment and in the pricing of the majority of flood re-insurance contracts. This has led to more informed and, hence, better flood risk management. A shareware version of the code has been available on the University of Bristol website since December 2010. As of September 2013, the shareware had received over 312 unique downloads from 54 different countries.

Submitting Institution

University of Bristol

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Engineering: Geomatic Engineering

Guidelines and standards which improve design and safety of marine structures subject to steep wave impact.

Summary of the impact

Guidelines and standards underpinned by Strathclyde research have improved the design, assessment and the safety of marine structures subjected to wave impact in large steep waves. The guidelines and standards are widely used in the design of floating structures, particularly Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSOs) and offshore wind turbines. Since January 2008 the work has impacted the design, strength assessment and failure analysis of fixed offshore oil and gas platforms, renewable energy devices and ships. The guidelines and standards are used by designers to mitigate against damage caused by breaking wave impact, thereby improving the safety of mariners and offshore workers, reducing lost production due to downtime, and cutting the risk of environmental impact due to oil pollution. The research has also been used by Strathclyde researchers in industry-focussed studies, in legal work related to the loss of the oil tanker Prestige (2009-2013), in the assessment of the Schiehallion FPSO for BP (2010), and design of a Scottish harbour wave screen (2009) that allows ferries to access and stay in the harbour in more severe weather.

Submitting Institution

University of Strathclyde

Unit of Assessment

Aeronautical, Mechanical, Chemical and Manufacturing Engineering

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

Exploiting nonlinearity in operational data assimilation for weather prediction

Summary of the impact

Data assimilation is playing an ever increasing role in weather forecasting. Implementing four- dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is part of the long term strategy of the UK Met Office.

In this case study, an idealised 4DVAR scheme, developed by a team from the Universities of Surrey and Reading working with the UK Met Office, based on the integration of Hamiltonian dynamics and nonlinearity into data assimilation, has now been taken up by the Met Office. It is being used to evaluate options for improving operational 4DVAR. The simplicity of the scheme developed by this team has facilitated careful analyses of some generic problems with the operational model. The outcome includes direct impact on the environment and indirect impact on the economy, both through improvements in weather forecasting.

Submitting Institution

University of Surrey

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences
Economics: Econometrics

Offshore Renewable Energy Deployment

Summary of the impact

Examples are provided of significant impact by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Flow Analysis (CMMFA) upon the Marine Renewables and Offshore Wind communities. In particular, CMMFA informed the design of a novel wave energy converter being commercialised for connection to the national grid. CMMFA has also contributed to a study of the design parameters for an offshore wind power station as part of a larger interdisciplinary collaborative research effort. This work responds to and informs the RCUK Energy Programme via underpinning research, capacity building and provision of trained personnel thus enacting UK Government Energy Policy.

Submitting Institution

Manchester Metropolitan University

Unit of Assessment

Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

The Violent Forces on Coastal Structures due to Storm Waves

Summary of the impact

Mathematical models of violent flows developed by Dr Mark Cooker at UEA have been adopted by industry. The work enhances the capabilities of coastal engineers to design and repair seawalls and coastal structures, and enhances their interpretation of damage inflicted by storm waves. The research has direct industrial application, and is used to contain, interpret and lessen sea-wave damage to structures. Commercial software has proved inadequate in this field, compared with Cooker's mathematical modelling, because computations alone cannot resolve the brief time- scales and short length-scales over which there are large changes in pressure, and sudden excursions of the liquid as splashes. An example of this impact is the design of an observation gantry exposed to storm waves.

Submitting Institution

University of East Anglia

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

9. Predicting turbulence – improved weather forecasts and £1.25 million annual savings for MoD

Summary of the impact

Research carried out at the University of Leeds has led to the development of a system for predicting severe air turbulence at airports and elsewhere. The research modelled highly localised `rotor streaming' turbulence which is too small-scale to predict using today's numerical weather prediction models. The Met Office now uses the highly efficient 3DVOM computer prediction model, based on the Leeds research, to improve its operational weather forecasting, especially for providing warnings of `gustiness' to the public and airports and to highlight risks of overturning of high-sided vehicles. In addition, the model is used by forecasters to predict dangerous turbulence at Mount Pleasant Airport in the Falkland Islands, and has led to the prevention of around five flight diversions per year at an estimated cost saving of £1.25 million.

Submitting Institution

University of Leeds

Unit of Assessment

Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

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