Summary of the impact

Building on innovative statistical models developed at Oxford, initially conducted by Dr Clive Payne and Prof David Firth, Dr Stephen Fisher's research facilitates quick generation of predictions for the share of seats won by each party from exit poll data. As a consequence, Fisher has provided the BBC with prediction and analysis of election results from 1997 to the present.

At the 2010 General Election, the forecast was jointly commissioned by the BBC, ITV, and Sky News. This forecast reached a television audience of 17.7 million on the BBC alone. Exit poll forecasts are of benefit to television companies and journalists in providing accurate reporting on elections and in developing programmes that interest the public and help to inform them of voting patterns. This public information and engagement is beneficial to electoral politics more broadly.

Summary of the impact

Based on his acknowledged research expertise in the areas of voting behaviour, electoral systems and survey methodology, John Curtice was widely consulted by the media before and after the 2010 UK general election to provide expert predictions on the likely outcome and to explain the results. By engaging with a variety of non-academic audiences, he informed public debate and understanding, and influenced pre-election planning by the UK Civil Service. He also contributed to the election night coverage by the three major UK broadcasters by accurately predicting the final result based on exit poll data. This informed much of the election night coverage, particularly on the BBC.

Summary of the impact

The British Local Elections Database and accompanying research output comprise a unique national resource through which political parties, media organisations, official statistical sources, central and local government, and public affairs companies have been able to report on and analyse electoral trends. This has informed and impacted on political debate and policy-making, and in turn has led to an increased public understanding and awareness of how to benchmark and interpret election outcomes. The impact of the research peaked in reach and significance at the time of the 2010 general election, but is also apparent at the annual local elections and in the constant tracking of patterns of behaviour at local by-elections.

Summary of the impact

This research on party and voter behaviour in the 2012 Scottish Local Government elections influenced the understanding and behaviour of two audiences. First, it directly informed the Scottish Parliament's Local Government and Regeneration Committee's inquiry into the 2012 Scottish Local Government Elections, which recommended reforms to electoral law as well as other measures to enhance local democracy. Second, it made a distinct contribution to improving the understanding of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system among party agents and candidates. In particular, there is clear evidence that it informed the campaign strategy of some Scottish National Party candidates and agents.

Summary of the impact

Researchers at Surrey have designed a new voting system commissioned by the Victorian Electoral Commission, for use in their State election, based on our Prêt à Voter system.

It will be the world's first fully verifiable e-voting system. Surrey's work has had a direct impact on Australian voting public services and on public policy on e-voting. The system provides secure and verifiable electronic support for voting in Victoria's State elections. Benefits include accessibility for blind and vision impaired voters, for those with motor impairments, for those who cannot read English, and greater efficiency and reach for remote voters nationally and internationally.

Summary of the impact

A new procedure for defining UK Parliamentary constituencies was strongly influenced by research led and directed by Professor Ron Johnston of the University of Bristol. The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act, 2011, created new rules for the redistribution of seats and also reduced the size of the House of Commons from 650 Members to 600. Throughout the proceedings, from initial meetings with the Conservative Party to completion of the legislation, Johnston was a key advisor to all three main political parties, civil servants, MPs (including a House of Commons Select Committee), the Boundary Commissions and members of the House of Lords (in whose debates his advice was cited on several occasions). He co-authored reports, gave oral evidence, and advised individuals. His expertise was called upon by the media during the debates on the Bill, to explain its intricacies and the many amendments. For this work, Johnston received the Political Studies Association's `Political Communicator of the Year' award in 2011.

Summary of the impact

Researchers in the Centre for Media, Elections and Participation (CEMaP) have improved the quality of electoral administration and enhanced the quality of understanding and debate about electoral systems in New Zealand. Following a transition from a First Past the Post to a Mixed Member Proportional System in 1996, New Zealand has become an electoral reform model of international interest and the country held a referendum in 2011 on whether to retain the new system. CEMaP research has had impacts on the NZ Electoral Commission, the general public and electoral system campaigners. The main impacts of the research have been:

• improvements to electoral administration in recording official voting data in elections;
• better understanding by the Electoral Commission of voter attitudes towards elections for more effective electoral administration;
• improvements to information campaigns to increase public understanding of the mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system and informing media debate during a national referendum;
• informing a national review of the MMP system including to maintain thresholds on party electoral support necessary for admission to Parliament in the light of public concern about the potential of MMP to admit too many small parties.