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University of Manchester (UoM) research has made a key contribution to adaptation planning strategy for urban climate change, at a range of scales. Impact was achieved via the generation of data, and the creation and refinement of tools and frameworks that offer a distinct geographical perspective and a means of generating local evidence on urban climate risks, vulnerabilities and adaptation potential. Proof of principle was established within Greater Manchester, with extensive and ongoing use of research findings to support urban adaptation. Subsequently, the research has guided additional localities, and contributed to national policy formulation. More recently, a number of cities — including on mainland Europe and the African continent — have used the research within local adaptation planning, and related green infrastructure policy and practice.
Research work into the development and transference of methods for climate readiness and resilience by Allen et al has created impacts at every stage of the planning process. In major cities of the Global South, such as Dhaka and Maputo, this research has made visible the material practices adopted by ordinary citizens to cope with climate variability, and has provided a systematic evaluation for policymakers and funders of strategies for proofing cities at scale. In turn it has facilitated new approaches to risk and vulnerability assessment — for instance, by integrating new perspectives into Maputo city planning, supporting methodological approaches to projects by Oxfam, and helping to shape policy tools and funding with organisations such as the Department for International Development (DFID).
Significant climate change is forecast for the Middle East by the end of this century, leading to — amongst other things — greater water scarcity and falling agricultural productivity. LSE research resulted in the development of the Palestinian Authority's first climate change adaptation strategy. This in turn led to the creation of a Palestinian national committee on climate change and, with the implementation of specific recommendations from this research, the strengthening of climate change planning within the Palestinian Authority. The research also shifted regional priorities for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which subsequently included climate change in its 2011-2013 Strategic Framework as a policy priority for development work in the occupied Palestinian territory.
The United Kingdom is today better adapted to climate risks as a result of a sustained programme of research completed by the School into the impacts of climate change on ecological, social and infrastructural systems. This work has had significant and continuing impact on the design and implementation of UK (and international) climate adaptation strategies and policies, especially with regard to flooding, the built environment and water and coastal management. Decision-support tools (such as climate scenarios and options appraisal) and direct policy advice produced by the School have been used by numerous public and private sector organisations to inform and guide their adaptation strategies and investments.
A comparative methodology to assess the impact of climate change in different countries, implemented by Gosling for a report commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), informed EU negotiations at the 2011 UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa. The conference concluded with the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action - a `road map' by which global legal agreement on climate change is to be implemented no later than 2015. For the first time, government ministers and their advisers attending an international conference were able to compare the impact of climate change in different countries, including those where scientific institutions have limited research capacity.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.
The research has had significant impact on the design and implementation of public-private partnerships at the international level (theme 1). It has led to new professional groups within the finance sector (theme 2). In particular research has directly influenced the investments of the International Climate Fund (£2.9 billion) set up by the UK Government; the Little Rock Accord signed in December 2012, with the Club de Madrid group of former world leaders; credit rating analysis of energy and water utilities by Standard & Poor's; and a new Board in the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Collectively these groups influence substantial capital flows into climate and resource solutions globally.
Extreme heat events are likely to occur more frequently in a warmer future climate. Cities worldwide are concerned that the urban heat island effect will exacerbate the impact of climate change on urban populations and infrastructure. The UK government expects local councils to play a vital role in making sure the country is prepared for climate change. Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in the UK, has worked in partnership with the University of Birmingham (UoB) in the BUCCANEER project (Birmingham Urban Climate Change Adaptation with Neighbourhood Estimates of Environmental Risk). The city has drawn extensively on BUCCANEER to design climate resilience into their city systems. The project has had public policy impact by informing the City's influential Green Commission and by being included in the City Council's new development Guidance — urban temperature change has become a mandatory factor to be considered for every new development requiring permission in the city. The guidance explicitly points developers towards BUCCANEER as the tool with which to consider this factor. A second public policy impact derives from the value of the tool for health planning: a significant proportion of the inner-city population is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures through age or ill-health and live where the heat island effect is shown to be largest. This aspect is now being increasingly employed by Public Health analysts and managers in the city. As a result of the city/university partnership, Birmingham has been recognised by the European Union as a Peer City and source of best practice for urban climate resilience.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
The government expects local councils to play a vital role in making sure the UK is prepared for climate change. Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in the UK, has worked in partnership with University of Birmingham (UoB) researchers in the BUCCANEER project (Birmingham Urban Climate Change Adaptation with Neighbourhood Estimates of Environmental Risk). The city has drawn extensively on the tool developed from BUCCANEER to inform their approach to adapting city systems to the increased likelihood of extreme temperatures in the future. This is a particular risk to cities like Birmingham where the projected higher overall temperatures in the UK as a result of climate change would exacerbate the existing urban heat island effect and produce potentially-damaging consequences for inner city areas. The project has had public policy impact by informing the approach taken by the City's influential Green Commission and by direct inclusion in the City Council's new development guidance. Temperature change and the urban heat island have now become mandatory factors to be considered for all developments requiring permission and guidance explicitly points developers towards BUCCANEER as the tool with which to consider this factor. A second public policy impact derives from the value of the tool for health planning: a significant proportion of the inner-city population is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures through age or ill-health and live where the heat island effect is shown to be largest. This aspect is now being increasingly employed by Public Health analysts and managers in the City.