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In response to the deficiencies in bank risk management revealed following the 2008 financial crisis, one of the mandated requirements under the Basel III regulatory framework is for banks to backtest the internal models they use to price their assets and to calculate how much capital they require should a counterparty default. Qiwei Yao worked with the Quantitative Analyst — Exposure team at Barclays Bank, which is responsible for constructing the Barclays Counterpart Credit Risk (CCR) backtesting methodology. They made use of several statistical methods from Yao's research to construct the newly developed backtesting methodology which is now in operation at Barclays Bank. This puts the CCR assessment and management at Barclays in line with the Basel III regulatory capital framework.
Research led by Professor Roger Fletcher has resulted in the development of a suite of algorithms that are now widely used throughout industry. An algorithm of fundamental importance constructed by Fletcher and co-workers is the filter method — a radically different approach to solving large and complex nonlinear optimization problems typical of those faced by industry. This algorithm was developed with the principal aim of providing a computationally reliable and effective method for solving such problems. The filter method is now utilised by a variety of high-profile industry end-users including IBM, Schlumberger, Lucent, EXXON, Boeing, The Ford Motor Company, QuantiSci and Thomson CSF. The use of the filter method has had a significant economic and developmental impact in these companies through enhanced business performance and cost savings.
Professor Parrish at Leicester developed a unique high sensitivity urine, soil and particle isotope assay for detection of DU pollution and applied this to Gulf War veterans to quantify exposure to DU munitions. None of the Gulf War veterans tested in a UK MoD study had detectable DU; this allowed the UK government to conclude that DU exposure was limited, and that the harm to veterans was small, although residual environmental issues of chronic exposure have yet to be quantified. The test was also applied to munitions' factory workers and nearby residents, and allowed the exposure to DU to be quantified in individuals and environmental materials. This latter study gave rise to a $0.5M exposure and health study near by the New York State Dept. of Health to better assess the health impacts of DU aerosol exposure.
Research on novel statistical methods for disease surveillance and influenza vaccine effectiveness has led to the development of a suite of automatic systems for detecting outbreaks of infectious diseases at Health Protection Scotland (HPS). This work has improved the public health response and helped to reduce costs in Scotland and also in the wider UK and EU by providing real-time early warning of disease outbreaks and timely estimates of the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine. This research, commissioned by the Scottish Government, through HPS, and also the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the European Centres for Disease Control (ECDC), but used in a wider context by many others, formed the basis for the HPS response to the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic and monitoring of the effects of Influenza Vaccines.
Professor Hutton has applied her research on statistical models for survival analysis to cerebral palsy, a neurological disorder which afflicts around 1 in 500 of newborn children globally. The body of research has established medically-accepted norms for the life expectancy of people with cerebral palsy. Her research extends to the study of life expectancy for patients suffering from spinal cord injuries.
The impact of this work has been internationally substantial, influencing medical and legal professionals, and informing lay people with involvement in cerebral palsy. Her work is also widely cited by patient-networks and textbooks.
Hutton is regularly called by both defence and plaintiff lawyers, as an expert witness worldwide, assessing life expectancy for damages arising from negligence in obstetric or paediatric care, or from accidents. Her expertise is also used in brain and spinal cord injury cases, which also result in substantial awards. The award of appropriate damages in legal cases ensures that patients receive the best care for the rest of their lives. From Jan 2008 to July 2013 Hutton has provided expert evidence in 103 such cases around the world, which had impact on decisions about compensation totalling in the range £100M-450M.
This case study concerns economic impact accruing in the aerospace engineering industry in Europe from software developed to perform stress analysis. Durham research has led to a spinout company, Concept Analyst, Ltd., and the software resulting from the research (Concept Analyst) is currently licensed by the following companies: BAE Systems (Brough, Samlesbury, Warton, Prestwick sites), Agusta Westland, Assystem, Jesmond Engineering, Spirit Aerospace. Trials are currently in place at Airbus UK and Bombardier, Canada. An agreement has been signed with the fatigue consultancy Jesmond Engineering, Ltd. to market the software within the aerospace sector. Economic impact arises from time savings for designers using Concept Analyst as compared to conventional commercial tools.
Our research team has developed new approaches to classifying demand series as `intermittent' and `lumpy', and devised new variants of the standard Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting, which improve forecast accuracy and stock performance. These approaches have impacted the forecasting software of Syncron and Manugistics, through the team's consultancy advice and knowledge transfer. Subsequently, this impact has extended to Syncron International and JDA Software, which took over Manugistics. These companies' forecasting software packages have a combined client base turnover of over £200 billion per annum, and their clients benefit from substantial inventory savings from the new approaches adopted.
This study describes two atomistic methods that have been used to explain better the behaviour and improve performance of materials. The research at Loughborough University from 2006-2013 has led to improved awareness and understanding in the areas of thin film growth and in irradiated structural materials for nuclear power. It has also led to changes in the operational models that Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) use. One of the algorithms developed has been incorporated into standard quantum chemistry packages, due to its increased accuracy and efficiency. The outcomes of the research have also contributed to changing UK government policy with regards to working with India in the area of nuclear research.
Age Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is by far the leading cause of blindness in older people in the developed world, affecting 30% of those aged over 65, and is set to increase. The naturally-occurring carotenoids lutein (L) and zeaxanthin (Z) are located in the central retina (macula) and are collectively called the macular pigment (MP). High MP levels confer protection from AMD. Murray and colleagues have developed a new instrument, the Macular Pigment Screener (MPS), which allows regular, non-invasive monitoring of MP in ophthalmic practice. This means that, for the first time, the MPS can show the effect of intervention on the MP, providing a management strategy for AMD patients, and allowing early identification of those at risk of developing AMD. Over 750 instruments have been sold to date, with more than 1M patients in the US alone estimated to be benefiting from routine MP testing.
Garthwaite has collaborated with Professor John Crawford, a neuropsychologist at the University of Aberdeen, to develop novel statistical methods for drawing inferences on the performance of an individual patient. The methods have become the standard way of analysing single-patient studies in neuropsychology and are widely used by clinicians to compare individual patients with normative data.
The methods have also been implemented in easy-to-use software, freely accessible over the web, and have been linked to databases containing the results of large normative samples on psychological test batteries. They have been the focus of review papers for clinical practice that have strongly recommended their use.