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Research undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM) has enhanced capacity for assessing and responding to climate change impacts and risks in urban areas, by moving from basic research around user requirements to the development of scaleable decision support tools. The needs of end users have been considered from the outset, with a co-production model of research — academics working in joint enterprise with stakeholders from the public, private and third sectors — leading to enhanced take-up of the resulting ideas, tools and techniques. Impacts are based upon supporting climate change adaptation responses within planning authorities, at local, regional, national and international scales, with the web-based climate change adaptation tools, developed at UoM, now freely available to municipalities worldwide.
Significant climate change is forecast for the Middle East by the end of this century, leading to — amongst other things — greater water scarcity and falling agricultural productivity. LSE research resulted in the development of the Palestinian Authority's first climate change adaptation strategy. This in turn led to the creation of a Palestinian national committee on climate change and, with the implementation of specific recommendations from this research, the strengthening of climate change planning within the Palestinian Authority. The research also shifted regional priorities for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which subsequently included climate change in its 2011-2013 Strategic Framework as a policy priority for development work in the occupied Palestinian territory.
The United Kingdom is today better adapted to climate risks as a result of a sustained programme of research completed by the School into the impacts of climate change on ecological, social and infrastructural systems. This work has had significant and continuing impact on the design and implementation of UK (and international) climate adaptation strategies and policies, especially with regard to flooding, the built environment and water and coastal management. Decision-support tools (such as climate scenarios and options appraisal) and direct policy advice produced by the School have been used by numerous public and private sector organisations to inform and guide their adaptation strategies and investments.
The research has had significant impact on the design and implementation of public-private partnerships at the international level (theme 1). It has led to new professional groups within the finance sector (theme 2). In particular research has directly influenced the investments of the International Climate Fund (£2.9 billion) set up by the UK Government; the Little Rock Accord signed in December 2012, with the Club de Madrid group of former world leaders; credit rating analysis of energy and water utilities by Standard & Poor's; and a new Board in the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Collectively these groups influence substantial capital flows into climate and resource solutions globally.
LSE philosophers have encouraged the Dutch Government to approach sustainability and climate change through experimenting with behavioural policies (rather than through regulation and taxation) and through scenario-based planning (rather than through probabilistic approaches). LSE research on behavioral policies is reflected in a key recommendation to Government by the Dutch Council for the Environment and Infrastructure (RLI) which has affected the way in which behavioural policies concerning sustainability enter the public debate in the Netherlands. LSE research on scenario-based planning is reflected in the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute [KNMI] Advisory Board Report entitled "Towards the KNMI's13 Scenarios". The Delta Programme, which is geared towards climate change adaptation (flooding and freshwater) in the Dutch lowlands, has incorporated this scenario-based approach in their planning.
The US government's announcement of an increase in the `social cost of carbon' (SCC) from $24 to $38 a tonne has been made on the basis of research by Richard Tol, of the University of Sussex. Regulation based on the new SCC (a measure of the damage of releasing an additional tonne of carbon into the atmosphere) initially applies to microwave ovens, where it is anticipated to save US consumers billions on their energy bills over coming decades and prevent 38 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. From June 2013, the new SCC applies to any new or revised regulation by any branch of the US government and will eventually affect a wide range of products and investments, including cars, white goods and power plants.
Tol, who works as an adviser to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has been instrumental in helping the agency to understand the economic impacts of climate change and the methods and assumptions that underpin SCC estimates. The US government's estimates of the SCC are widely used by other decision-makers in the private sector, banks and NGOs and in other countries.
Preference-satisfaction models of welfare dominate environmental policy but are problematic both in respect to the value placed on environmental goods and as a basis for environmental decision making. The Philosophy Department at the University of Manchester (UoM) has developed an alternative characterisation of well-being, along with tools for its measurement and employment in policy making. Impact is delivered via a UK-based project on climate justice, focused on a need to conceptualise, measure and map vulnerability to the impacts of climate change associated with flooding and heatwaves. The framework developed has had a major influence on adaptation planning at both local and national levels, allowing authorities to identify concentrations of climate disadvantage, and to formulate policies that address specific sources of disadvantage in different locations.
Climate change is one of the defining challenges of our time. The net costs of climate change in the UK could be tens of billions of pounds per year in the 2050s, and tidal flooding alone could affect over half a million UK properties by 2100. Dr Jonathan Rougier worked with the UK Met Office (UKMO) to produce the climate scenarios for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) 2009 report (UKCP09). His research and advice (funded as a UKMO External Expert) was critical in a key innovation in the UKCP09: a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. A Director of the UKCIP writes "The UKMO team with Dr Rougier [have] put the UK at the leading edge of the science and service aspects of providing climate information for users" [b].
The UKCP09 formed the basis of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and the recommendations of the UK National Adaptation Programme, which was submitted to Parliament as part of the Government's obligations under the Climate Change Act. The UKCP09 has been used for the assessment of the impact of climate change by hundreds of organisations, including agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), utilities companies, consultancies, and County Councils and Local Authorities.
Research by Professor Wilby since 1993 has led to the development of regional climate modelling techniques, climate risk assessment frameworks, and adaptation planning approaches for long- lived water and energy infrastructure. Benefits were delivered through public domain software, practitioner training, and technical advice to policy-makers. This case study provides examples of impact conveyed via these services to national and international agencies, non-governmental organisations and commercial partners who are formulating strategies to manage exposure of their portfolios to climate risks. The work helped build technical capacities in climate risk management and adaptation options appraisal, particularly in vulnerable parts of Asia and the Middle East.
Lived experiences of ordinary people and how they rationalise events provides rich insights for several disciplines e.g. medicine. With climate change, whilst the value of anthropogenic activity is increasingly recognised, models based on positivist scientific rationality still dominate. What is yet unclear is how a global citizenery understands climate change through its own individual and group "lived experiences". This research is significant in that it seeks to conceptualise and theorise what is meant by the "lived experience" of climate change and how this shapes the "lay rationality" and actions of people in both the developed and the developing world.