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Protecting London from the threat of flooding is of prime importance to the nation. Work in the Unit on regional sea-level rise and on the effect of storm surges was used in the Environment Agency's Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) plan to assess potential change in risk. The Unit's work estimated a very unlikely maximum rise in sea level of 2.7m by 2100, considerably lower than the previous worst-case scenario of 4.2m. It confirmed that 90 centimetres was the figure that should be used for developing the plan. TE2100 concluded that a second Thames Barrier (estimated cost £10-20 billion at today's prices) would not be needed not by 2030, but may be needed by 2070. Our results have been used to define procedures for the monitoring of regional sea and Thames water levels over the next few decades, and to review decision-making procedures to ensure that the risk of flooding in London is kept within acceptable levels, while avoiding unnecessary costs
The United Kingdom is today better adapted to climate risks as a result of a sustained programme of research completed by the School into the impacts of climate change on ecological, social and infrastructural systems. This work has had significant and continuing impact on the design and implementation of UK (and international) climate adaptation strategies and policies, especially with regard to flooding, the built environment and water and coastal management. Decision-support tools (such as climate scenarios and options appraisal) and direct policy advice produced by the School have been used by numerous public and private sector organisations to inform and guide their adaptation strategies and investments.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.
A comparative methodology to assess the impact of climate change in different countries, implemented by Gosling for a report commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), informed EU negotiations at the 2011 UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa. The conference concluded with the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action - a `road map' by which global legal agreement on climate change is to be implemented no later than 2015. For the first time, government ministers and their advisers attending an international conference were able to compare the impact of climate change in different countries, including those where scientific institutions have limited research capacity.
The US government's announcement of an increase in the `social cost of carbon' (SCC) from $24 to $38 a tonne has been made on the basis of research by Richard Tol, of the University of Sussex. Regulation based on the new SCC (a measure of the damage of releasing an additional tonne of carbon into the atmosphere) initially applies to microwave ovens, where it is anticipated to save US consumers billions on their energy bills over coming decades and prevent 38 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. From June 2013, the new SCC applies to any new or revised regulation by any branch of the US government and will eventually affect a wide range of products and investments, including cars, white goods and power plants.
Tol, who works as an adviser to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has been instrumental in helping the agency to understand the economic impacts of climate change and the methods and assumptions that underpin SCC estimates. The US government's estimates of the SCC are widely used by other decision-makers in the private sector, banks and NGOs and in other countries.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
A novel large-area process-based crop simulation model developed at the University of Reading and published in 2004 has been used to explore how climate change may affect crop production and global food security. The results of Reading's modelling work have been used as evidence to support the case for action on climate change for international agreements and used by the UK Government to inform various areas of policy and, in particular, to help frame its position on climate change at international negotiations. The database and knowledge from this model also informed the development of Reading's innovative web-based tool that locates sites where the climate today is similar to the projected climate in another location - providing insight into potential adaptation practices for crop production in the future by linking to present-day examples. This tool has been used to inform and train farmers and policy-makers in developing countries and has supported policy implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.
Research at York provided strong empirical evidence that species are responding rapidly to recent anthropogenic climate change, and that climate change threatens many species with extinction. This research underpins key climate change impacts reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transforming international understanding of the magnitude of the threats to biodiversity and steering major national and international policy decisions affecting many sectors of society in 2008-13. The research stimulated governmental and non-governmental policy development at regional, national and intergovernmental levels, influencing climate change mitigation and adaption strategies throughout the world.
The research has had significant impact on the design and implementation of public-private partnerships at the international level (theme 1). It has led to new professional groups within the finance sector (theme 2). In particular research has directly influenced the investments of the International Climate Fund (£2.9 billion) set up by the UK Government; the Little Rock Accord signed in December 2012, with the Club de Madrid group of former world leaders; credit rating analysis of energy and water utilities by Standard & Poor's; and a new Board in the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Collectively these groups influence substantial capital flows into climate and resource solutions globally.
Research within the Unit was used to create the "TRACK" storm-tracking and analysis software package, which is used to automatically identify storms from both observed and simulated weather data. The software has been used in academic research to improve understanding of how storms develop and how they may change over time, but TRACK has also found widespread applications outside academia. It has been used to quantify errors in current operational weather forecasts, enabling users to produce more accurate storm forecasts better tailored to their needs. It has been used to develop catalogues of historical storms used in the insurance industry for risk assessment. TRACK has also been used to evaluate the performance of climate models and inform their development and improvement.