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Techniques developed at The University of Nottingham (UoN) have enabled organisations to deal with uncertainty in complex industrial and policy problems that rely on the elicitation of expert opinion and knowledge. The statistical toolkit produced for use in complex decision-making processes has been deployed in a wide range of applications. It has been particularly useful in asset management planning in organisations such as the London Underground, government approaches to evidence-based policy, and the Met Office UK Climate Projection tool (UKCP09), which is used by hundreds of organisations across the UK such as environment agencies, city and county councils, water companies and tourist boards.
Methods of emulation, model calibration and uncertainty analysis developed by Professor Tony O'Hagan and his team at The University of Nottingham (UoN) have formed the basis of Pratt & Whitney's Design for Variation (DFV) initiative which was established in 2008. The global aerospace manufacturers describe the initiative as a `paradigm shift' that aims to account for all sources of uncertainty and variation across their entire design process.
Pratt & Whitney considers their implementation of the methods to provide competitive advantage, and published savings from Pratt & Whitney adopting the DFV approach for a fleet of military aircraft are estimated to be approximately US$1billion.