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This case study describes the impact achieved by novel methodology for election exit-poll design and analysis, at the 2010 UK General Election. The context is that the underpinning research had already led to success in predicting the outcome of the May 2005 General Election for public broadcasts by BBC and ITV. Its direct impacts at the 2010 General Election were significant and far-reaching:
(i) The same statistical methods were used successfully in 2010 also by a third major UK and international broadcaster, Sky (in addition to BBC and ITV).
(ii) The TV, radio and internet audiences of the three channels combined totalled many millions of people who were thereby informed of the likely 2010 election outcome immediately after the close of polling stations.
(iii) The prediction that was produced and broadcast at close of polls in May 2010 was both surprising to political commentators and extremely accurate.
As a result of these successes, the statistical methods we developed are now the "industry standard" for electoral exit-poll design and analysis in the UK.
This research on party and voter behaviour in the 2012 Scottish Local Government elections influenced the understanding and behaviour of two audiences. First, it directly informed the Scottish Parliament's Local Government and Regeneration Committee's inquiry into the 2012 Scottish Local Government Elections, which recommended reforms to electoral law as well as other measures to enhance local democracy. Second, it made a distinct contribution to improving the understanding of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system among party agents and candidates. In particular, there is clear evidence that it informed the campaign strategy of some Scottish National Party candidates and agents.
Building on innovative statistical models developed at Oxford, initially conducted by Dr Clive Payne and Prof David Firth, Dr Stephen Fisher's research facilitates quick generation of predictions for the share of seats won by each party from exit poll data. As a consequence, Fisher has provided the BBC with prediction and analysis of election results from 1997 to the present.
At the 2010 General Election, the forecast was jointly commissioned by the BBC, ITV, and Sky News. This forecast reached a television audience of 17.7 million on the BBC alone. Exit poll forecasts are of benefit to television companies and journalists in providing accurate reporting on elections and in developing programmes that interest the public and help to inform them of voting patterns. This public information and engagement is beneficial to electoral politics more broadly.
Researchers in the Centre for Media, Elections and Participation (CEMaP) have improved the quality of electoral administration and enhanced the quality of understanding and debate about electoral systems in New Zealand. Following a transition from a First Past the Post to a Mixed Member Proportional System in 1996, New Zealand has become an electoral reform model of international interest and the country held a referendum in 2011 on whether to retain the new system. CEMaP research has had impacts on the NZ Electoral Commission, the general public and electoral system campaigners. The main impacts of the research have been:
A new procedure for defining UK Parliamentary constituencies was strongly influenced by research led and directed by Professor Ron Johnston of the University of Bristol. The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act, 2011, created new rules for the redistribution of seats and also reduced the size of the House of Commons from 650 Members to 600. Throughout the proceedings, from initial meetings with the Conservative Party to completion of the legislation, Johnston was a key advisor to all three main political parties, civil servants, MPs (including a House of Commons Select Committee), the Boundary Commissions and members of the House of Lords (in whose debates his advice was cited on several occasions). He co-authored reports, gave oral evidence, and advised individuals. His expertise was called upon by the media during the debates on the Bill, to explain its intricacies and the many amendments. For this work, Johnston received the Political Studies Association's `Political Communicator of the Year' award in 2011.
The impact arises from research on electoral malpractice and electoral registration in the UK, carried out by Dr Stuart Wilks-Heeg, and which made a clear and identifiable contribution to public and parliamentary debate and to policy development. The research was published in the period April 2008 — March 2012 and the impact is identifiable from April 2008 onwards. The impact has been manifested in the influence of the research on national political debate, campaigning by a leading democracy pressure group in the UK, the work of the Electoral Commission and, ultimately in its contribution to bringing about legislative change.
The British Local Elections Database and accompanying research output comprise a unique national resource through which political parties, media organisations, official statistical sources, central and local government, and public affairs companies have been able to report on and analyse electoral trends. This has informed and impacted on political debate and policy-making, and in turn has led to an increased public understanding and awareness of how to benchmark and interpret election outcomes. The impact of the research peaked in reach and significance at the time of the 2010 general election, but is also apparent at the annual local elections and in the constant tracking of patterns of behaviour at local by-elections.
Researchers at Surrey have designed a new voting system commissioned by the Victorian Electoral Commission, for use in their State election, based on our Prêt à Voter system.
It will be the world's first fully verifiable e-voting system. Surrey's work has had a direct impact on Australian voting public services and on public policy on e-voting. The system provides secure and verifiable electronic support for voting in Victoria's State elections. Benefits include accessibility for blind and vision impaired voters, for those with motor impairments, for those who cannot read English, and greater efficiency and reach for remote voters nationally and internationally.
Research by Simon Hix on the democratic reform of the European Union has helped to transform the way politicians, policymakers, journalists and interest groups understand how EU politics works, and as a result has changed the way the EU institutions work. Hix's research has achieved the following key impacts: 1) www.VoteWatch.eu is the leading website for tracking the voting behaviour of MEPs and governments in the EU Council; 2) recorded ("roll-call votes") are now taken in the European Parliament (EP) on all final votes on EU legislative proposals; 3) the Duff Report on the reform of the EP electoral system proposed to introduce preferential-voting in all EU member states; and 4) there is growing support amongst think tanks, NGOs and political parties for a competitive election of the Commission President, which Hix has advocated for several years. In November 2012, on the 40th anniversary of British membership of the EU, the media group EurActiv named Simon Hix amongst "the 40 most influential Britons on EU policy". He was the only academic on the list (see http://www.euractiv.com/UK40).
Essex research on electoral administration has informed the development of practical measures to reduce electoral corruption in a number of different countries. Work led by Professor Sarah Birch has contributed significantly to promoting good practice in elections both in the UK and in a number of new and semi-democracies. In the UK, Birch's research played an important role in shaping the Electoral Administration Act 2006, which led to a significant reduction in postal voting abuse in the 2010 General Election. In Macedonia, Birch's research was used to inform a UN Development Programme project on proxy voting that fed directly into strategy documents from the State Election Commission and a Code of Conduct signed by all parties. Following the project, 'family voting' in Macedonia declined 17 per cent in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Birch extended her work in a series of training projects on parliamentary strengthening in Lebanon and Mozambique as part of a £5 million programme funded by DFID and the FCO and implemented through the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. In addition, her research regularly informs the practical work of various international organisations involved in the organisation and monitoring of elections.