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A novel approach to climate science has resulted in over 260,000 members of the public worldwide choosing to engage in a climate modelling project. By contributing resources that require their time and attention, they have become `citizen scientists'. The project has resulted in greater interest, understanding and engagement with climate science by participants; wider public discussion of climate science; and influence on policy and practice. Over 3000 people, including professionals in developing countries, have benefitted through education and training. The project has also advanced the development and awareness of `volunteer computing'.
As the realities of climate change have become more widely accepted over the last decade, decision makers have requested projections of future changes and impacts. Founded in 2002, the Centre for Analysis of Time Series (CATS) has conducted research revealing how the limited fidelity of climate models reduces the relevance of cost-benefit style management in this context: actions based on ill-founded projections (including probabilistic projections) can lead to maladaptation and poor policy choice. CATS' conclusions were noted in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and led in turn to the toning down of the UK Climate Projections 2009 and the 2012 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Members of the insurance sector, energy sector, national security agencies, scientific bodies and governments have modified their approaches to climate risk management as a direct result of understanding CATS' research. Attempts to reinterpret climate model output and design computer experiments for more effective decision support have also resulted.
Information on the potential impacts of climate change across the world, and on the effects of policies designed to reduce emissions, is fundamental to inform the development of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Research conducted at the Unit has been critical to the establishment of a target 80% cut in UK carbon emissions by 2050, as enforced by the Climate Change Act (2008), and provided an affirmation of the relevance of the 2f0b0C global mean temperature rise target central to national and international climate mitigation policy. Research into the global consequences of climate change, particularly for water resources and river flooding, has been used by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to assess the impacts of un-mitigated climate change and the effects of different mitigation policy options.
The US government's announcement of an increase in the `social cost of carbon' (SCC) from $24 to $38 a tonne has been made on the basis of research by Richard Tol, of the University of Sussex. Regulation based on the new SCC (a measure of the damage of releasing an additional tonne of carbon into the atmosphere) initially applies to microwave ovens, where it is anticipated to save US consumers billions on their energy bills over coming decades and prevent 38 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. From June 2013, the new SCC applies to any new or revised regulation by any branch of the US government and will eventually affect a wide range of products and investments, including cars, white goods and power plants.
Tol, who works as an adviser to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has been instrumental in helping the agency to understand the economic impacts of climate change and the methods and assumptions that underpin SCC estimates. The US government's estimates of the SCC are widely used by other decision-makers in the private sector, banks and NGOs and in other countries.
A novel large-area process-based crop simulation model developed at the University of Reading and published in 2004 has been used to explore how climate change may affect crop production and global food security. The results of Reading's modelling work have been used as evidence to support the case for action on climate change for international agreements and used by the UK Government to inform various areas of policy and, in particular, to help frame its position on climate change at international negotiations. The database and knowledge from this model also informed the development of Reading's innovative web-based tool that locates sites where the climate today is similar to the projected climate in another location - providing insight into potential adaptation practices for crop production in the future by linking to present-day examples. This tool has been used to inform and train farmers and policy-makers in developing countries and has supported policy implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.
UK upland peatlands constitute the world's greatest area of blanket bog, an endangered biome, and are the UK's largest natural habitat, carbon store, and pure water resource. The multi-institutional project "Climate Change Impacts on UK Upland Soils" identified models to predict the response of blanket bog to climatic and environmental changes and drew the attention of diverse stakeholders to the challenge of conserving these peatlands in a warming climate. The results have had impact on public policy and the environment by stimulating and informing debate. Since 2011, they have been (i) used by local and national agencies such as the Forestry Commission, (ii) included in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, (iii) cited by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Commission of Enquiry on Peatlands, and (iv) used in evidence for policy making by Defra and the Scottish Parliament.
The United Kingdom is today better adapted to climate risks as a result of a sustained programme of research completed by the School into the impacts of climate change on ecological, social and infrastructural systems. This work has had significant and continuing impact on the design and implementation of UK (and international) climate adaptation strategies and policies, especially with regard to flooding, the built environment and water and coastal management. Decision-support tools (such as climate scenarios and options appraisal) and direct policy advice produced by the School have been used by numerous public and private sector organisations to inform and guide their adaptation strategies and investments.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.
Protecting London from the threat of flooding is of prime importance to the nation. Work in the Unit on regional sea-level rise and on the effect of storm surges was used in the Environment Agency's Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) plan to assess potential change in risk. The Unit's work estimated a very unlikely maximum rise in sea level of 2.7m by 2100, considerably lower than the previous worst-case scenario of 4.2m. It confirmed that 90 centimetres was the figure that should be used for developing the plan. TE2100 concluded that a second Thames Barrier (estimated cost £10-20 billion at today's prices) would not be needed not by 2030, but may be needed by 2070. Our results have been used to define procedures for the monitoring of regional sea and Thames water levels over the next few decades, and to review decision-making procedures to ensure that the risk of flooding in London is kept within acceptable levels, while avoiding unnecessary costs