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A Numbers Game: Revamping Official Statistics on Migration and Population

Summary of the impact

In the UK and the rest of Europe, public bodies and policymakers have struggled to quantify migration and make accurate population forecasts because of inconsistent data from a variety of disparate sources. The University of Southampton has demonstrated how, via the use of statistical modelling, conceptual frameworks and migration modelling, policymakers can radically improve the information they glean from the data sources at their disposal. The team successfully guided the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in overhauling their methodologies, finally making them compliant with European Union (EU) regulations. The wider impact of accurate numbers is significant for public service provision, planning, and the UK economy. Furthermore, ONS data feeds into numerous areas of public policy, hence the provision of accurate estimates by Southampton researchers has significant reach and impact on such policies.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Social Work and Social Policy

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Estimating local populations with far greater accuracy using administrative data

Summary of the impact

There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial UK Census are inaccurate at the local authority level, the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. The use of locally-available administrative data sets for counting populations can result in more timely and geographically more flexible data which are more cost-effective to produce than the survey-based Census. Professor Mayhew of City University London has spent the last 13 years conducting research on administrative data and their application to counting populations at local level. This work has focused particularly on linking population estimates to specific applications in health and social care, education and crime. Professor Mayhew developed a methodology that is now used as an alternative to the decennial UK Census by a large number of local councils and health care providers. They have thereby gained access to more accurate, detailed and relevant data which have helped local government officials and communities make better policy decisions and save money. The success of this work has helped to shape thinking on statistics in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland and has contributed to the debate over whether the decennial UK Census should be discontinued.

Submitting Institution

City University, London

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Political

Research Subject Area(s)

Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Making It Count: Improving the Census

Summary of the impact

Statistical techniques developed at the University of Southampton have transformed the accuracy with which Census data can estimate the UK population's size and characteristics, delivering far-reaching socio-economic impact. The methodologies developed by Southampton have increased the accuracy and availability of the 2011 UK Census data, not only for the Office for National Statistics but for central government, local authorities, the NHS and the private sector, who all use the data as a basis for policy decisions. Preserving the privacy of the UK population, Southampton's work allowed, for the first time, the release of highly localised data, which is used by local authorities to target resources efficiently and meet the demands imposed by the Localism and Equality Acts.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services
Economics: Applied Economics

Small Area Estimation: Data Provision for Smarter Local Policymaking

Summary of the impact

Southampton statisticians have made a valuable contribution to government policy formulation across the UK and further afield to areas of North America and Europe. Novel methods for delivering more accurate estimates of socio-economic indicators at neighbourhood level have given local authorities, national government agencies and MPs the tools to implement more effective policies designed to assist the poorest communities and strengthen community cohesion. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has described Southampton's contribution as `a breakthrough', while the Mexican government agency, CONEVAL, regards this work as `the most prestigious' of its kind.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics

Defining functional areas for policy development and implementation

Summary of the impact

Coombes' research to advance spatial-analysis methodology has re-defined Travel-to-Work Areas (TTWAs) — the only official UK boundaries defined by academics — and produced three distinct strands of impact.

  • Use of Boundaries: TTWA boundaries are widely used by the UK government and others because they accurately map economic geography; they are used to select areas for major funding support.
  • Use of Concept: TTWAs are cited as `bench-mark' functional economic area definitions in the guidance for implementing UK policies such as that on Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs).
  • Use of Methodology: Countries in three continents have adapted the TTWA method to define functional areas for their official statistics.

Submitting Institution

Newcastle University

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics

Redrawing the Lines: Developing New Census Output Geographies

Summary of the impact

Research by the University of Southampton has led to an entirely new approach to the creation and management of small geographical areas for the publication of official statistics, including those from the 2001 and 2011 UK Censuses and the Neighbourhood Statistics Service. The software at the heart of this transformation is now used in 10 countries, while the academics responsible for it have helped inform government decisions, are integral to the policy and practice of the Office of National Statistics and have presented evidence to various influential committees. The research continues to deliver benefits to a large user community.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics

Impact of Demographic Projections on Sub-national Planning

Summary of the impact

Research on demographic projection methods, undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM), provided the basis for POPGROUP, a software package recognised as the industry standard for local demographic planning in Great Britain and adopted by the Local Government Association (LGA) in 2010. Three impacts emerge from POPGROUP. Firstly, in estimating how migration will be restricted or stimulated according to the provision of housing, the software permits local government to assess a range of house-building scenarios, enabling the effective implementation of, most recently, the `National Planning Policy Framework' (2012). Secondly, by extending demographic projections to areas other than local authority boundaries, it enables national statistical agencies to project demographic demand (e.g. in National Parks). Thirdly, the ubiquity of POPGROUP has led to the increasing use of demographic tools within the commercial sector.

Submitting Institution

University of Manchester

Unit of Assessment

Sociology

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics
Studies In Human Society: Demography, Human Geography

The Ensuring Council: An Alternative Vision for Local Government

Summary of the impact

The Local Governance Research Unit (LGRU) undertook a Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) with the Association for Public Service Excellence (APSE), a not-for-profit local government association that provides policy and operational advice to over 300 councils. This partnership informed APSE's strategic policy review, co-producing a new model of the Ensuring Council, which was adopted by its national council, and used to brand and position APSE within local government. Seven evidence-based policy tools were created through the partnership and taken up and used by APSE for consultancy and membership services. Externally, APSE used these outputs to increase its influence over national policy.

Submitting Institution

De Montfort University

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Political

Research Subject Area(s)

Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration, Political Science, Sociology

Transforming the Collection, Presentation, and Use of Data in the UK Migration Policy Debate

Summary of the impact

Research carried out at the University of Oxford's Centre on Migration Policy and Society (COMPAS) and disseminated through an accessible multimedia website, `The Migration Observatory', has transformed public and policy debate on migration and changed the practices of government departments, media, and third-sector organizations regarding migration data. As a result of COMPAS's research on public attitudes to immigration, migrants' remittance payments, and employers' demand for migrant labour, these groups have been able to make stronger, evidence-based arguments and decisions.

The impact has occurred in two main ways: (1) direct impact on public debates; and (2) changes in the practices of those participating in, or reporting on, those debates. The direct impact has included evidence for arguments against new restrictions on student immigration, and related arguments in favour of changing the way student immigration statistics are tracked. It has also included shaping deliberations on the potential for developing new measures of remittances by the Office of National Statistics. Changes in practice have involved the dissemination of research and data through the vehicle of the Migration Observatory. The Observatory has enabled journalists, civil servants, parliamentarians, and NGOs to use a more accurate and impartial evidence base in debates on migration issues, and to inform the public about such issues.

Submitting Institution

University of Oxford

Unit of Assessment

Anthropology and Development Studies

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics
Studies In Human Society: Demography

North East Economic Model (NEEM)

Summary of the impact

The North East Economic Model (NEEM) was designed and developed at Durham University Business School (DUBS) from 2003. Customized to the regional economy, the aim of the research was for NEEM to model intra- and extra-regional economic relationships to provide quantitative estimates/projections of the impact of both long-term economic trends and shorter-term economic `shocks'. Its application has had significant impacts on policy practitioners in the region by: (1) facilitating more robust evidence-based policy analysis; (2) giving rise to knowledge transfer to policy-makers regarding the structure and workings of the regional economy; and (3) acting as a catalyst for an extended regional policy-modeling capacity. By influencing professional practice, it has had demonstrable impacts on regional economic policy, regional economic restructuring and local planning.

Submitting Institution

University of Durham

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics

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