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QRISK is a new algorithm which predicts an individual's risk of cardiovascular over 10 years. It was developed using the QResearch database and is in routine use across the NHS. It is included in national guidelines from NICE and the Department of Health and in the GP quality and outcomes framework. It is incorporated into > 90% of GP computer systems as well as pharmacy and secondary care systems. The web calculator has been used >500,000 times worldwide. ClinRisk Ltd was incorporated in 2008 to develop software to ensure the reliable widespread implementation of the QRISK algorithm into clinical practice.
New health-evidence-based water quality criteria affecting over 24,000 EU bathing waters were implemented throughout the EU in 2012. These quantitative standards for microbial concentrations in sea water were based on WHO guidelines that were developed by Aberystwyth University's Centre for Research into Environment and Health (CREH) and founded on CREH's world-leading research. These standards (i) shape public policy by providing more rigorously-defined, quantitative health-based criteria, and (ii) improve implementation of environmental policy by facilitating the incorporation of real-time prediction of water quality, designed to provide `informed-choice' to bathers. Application of the standards on their own, i.e., without the prediction element, will result in the loss of 50% of UK's `Blue Flag' beach awards. With CREH's predictive element, however, the UK will both keep its blue flags and have higher standards of health protection. This prediction element is estimated by Defra to be worth between £1.4 and £5.3 billion to the UK economy over a period of 25 years following its initial implementation in 2012.
QRisk is a statistical model / score derived from routine general practice (GP) records to calculate an individual's risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Queen Mary researchers formed the London arm of a multi-centre study and were particularly instrumental in testing the tool in general practice. QRisk targets treatment more effectively than other scores; it is also more equitable for disadvantaged and minority ethnic groups and cheaper per event prevented. QRisk is used in the NHS Health Checks programme covering 20 million people in England and is available at a keystroke in all GP computer systems in England. It has contributed to the identification of an additional 2.8 million people in England at high risk of CVD and their treatment with statins, reducing CVD deaths and events by an estimated 9,000 per year — about 50,000 to date since the NHS Checks programme started in 2009.
Research at the University of Manchester (UoM) has developed new approaches, methods and algorithms to improve the statistical confidentiality practices of data stewardship organisations (DSOs), such as the UK's Office for National Statistics. The research and its products have had significant impacts on data dissemination practice, both in the UK and internationally, and have been adopted by national statistical agencies, government departments and private companies. The primary beneficiaries of this work are DSOs, who are able to both disseminate useful data products, and protect respondent confidentiality more effectively. Secondary beneficiaries are respondents, whose confidentiality is better protected, and the research community, as without `gold standard' disclosure risk analysis, data holders can be overcautious.
Research by Cathcart, McNeil (both Maxwell Institute) and Morrison (Barrie & Hibbert) during the period 2008-2012 has developed a methodology based on least squares Monte Carlo to value complex insurance liabilities and manage their risks. This methodology has been adopted by Barrie & Hibbert (B&H, part of Moody's Analytics) and has enabled the company to develop an internationally leading proposition for valuing insurance products. This has generated £2.5M in revenue since 2011, through implementation in 5 new products and use in 12 new consulting projects.
A University of Glasgow bovine tuberculosis (bTB) surveillance model was fundamental to new Scottish Government policy on bTB testing. Implemented on 1st January 2012, the policy change used the Glasgow model to indicate which cattle herds can be exempt from routine testing while still maintaining Scotland's Officially bTB Free status. In 2012 this translated to exemption of more than 30% of Scottish herds from routine testing, with an associated government saving of £150,000. The revised policy also provided savings to the Scottish farming industry in the region of £100,000 (2012) and limited the risks of bTB testing to farmers, veterinarians and cattle. The rapid success of the ground-breaking Scottish research-led bTB policy development has been highlighted by the Civil Service as best practice and has been presented to numerous policy audiences including the European Commission, providing the opportunity to transform industry practices and livestock surveillance policy across the UK and beyond.
A new method for classifying aircraft accidents and modelling the effectiveness of runway end safety areas was developed by Pitfield and colleagues at Loughborough University (1997-present) to improve global airfield safety. It was adopted by the US Airports Cooperative Research Program in 2008, validated at eight airports, and empirically applied at three, including San Francisco and Toronto (2009-2010). It resulted in: the use of enhanced aircraft accident modelling methodologies by aviation practitioners; improvements to global airport risk assessment and safety management regimes; the utilisation of empirical techniques by a commercial consultancy; and evidence being presented to the 2011 UK Public Inquiry into the proposed expansion of London Ashford Airport.
Credit scoring, the process of estimating the risk of lending to consumers, has traditionally estimated the likelihood of default over a fixed period, usually 12 months. Research carried out at Southampton's School of Management has led to a gradual shift by many financial institutions in the UK and elsewhere towards an alternative method that estimates default over any period. This approach provides accurate risk estimates over any time period. It also allows for the inclusion in the "scorecard" of economic conditions and the lending rates charged — features whose absence from previous scorecards was identified as contributing to the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Since 2004, researchers in Cambridge have developed a series of generic and flexible models to predict the spread of plant diseases in agricultural, horticultural and natural environments. These now underpin policy decisions relating to the management and control of a number of such diseases, including sudden oak death and ash dieback in the UK (by Defra and the Forestry Commission), and sudden oak death in the US (by the United States Department of Agriculture). This has subsequently had an impact on how practitioners manage these diseases in the field, and on the environment through the implementation of disease mitigation strategies. In the case of ash dieback, the Cambridge work has also directly contributed to public involvement in mapping the spread of the disease.
The Cambridge-led Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC) is a global consortium involving individual-participant data on 2.5 million participants from 130 cohort studies. The ERFC has helped optimise approaches to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment by: 1) quantifying the incremental predictive value provided by assessment of risk factors 2) evaluating the independence of associations between risk factors and CVD and 3) addressing uncertainties related to the implementation of screening. ERFC publications on lipids, lipoproteins, and inflammation biomarkers have been cited by 9 guidelines published since 2010, including those of the European Society of Cardiology and the American Heart Association.