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Professor Hutton has applied her research on statistical models for survival analysis to cerebral palsy, a neurological disorder which afflicts around 1 in 500 of newborn children globally. The body of research has established medically-accepted norms for the life expectancy of people with cerebral palsy. Her research extends to the study of life expectancy for patients suffering from spinal cord injuries.
The impact of this work has been internationally substantial, influencing medical and legal professionals, and informing lay people with involvement in cerebral palsy. Her work is also widely cited by patient-networks and textbooks.
Hutton is regularly called by both defence and plaintiff lawyers, as an expert witness worldwide, assessing life expectancy for damages arising from negligence in obstetric or paediatric care, or from accidents. Her expertise is also used in brain and spinal cord injury cases, which also result in substantial awards. The award of appropriate damages in legal cases ensures that patients receive the best care for the rest of their lives. From Jan 2008 to July 2013 Hutton has provided expert evidence in 103 such cases around the world, which had impact on decisions about compensation totalling in the range £100M-450M.
The National Institute for health Care Excellence (NICE) in England and Wales makes timely and equitable decisions regarding the use of health technologies (medical devices and pharmaceuticals) within the NHS in order to improve patient care. Such decisions are reliant on Health Technology Assessment (HTA) — the processes of evidence generation and synthesis, and the methods that underpin these. Methods pioneered and developed at Leicester over the last 15 years are now used routinely in HTA both by NICE and the pharmaceutical industry and healthcare consultancy companies who make submissions to NICE. Internationally, these methods are also now being adopted in the US by Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), as well as in rapidly developing countries such as Brazil and Colombia.
Software has been developed by City University London in cooperation with Rolls-Royce that exploits the strengths of Bayesian statistics in improving the design of aircraft engines. The software, `4Cast', allows engineers to elicit design characteristics that in turn allow the design to be modelled relative to reliability targets. The targets are determined by failure rates. This enables better evaluation of design choices and of the risk of faults and failures in engines and supports rapid decisions as to whether a proposed design meets requirements.
By using 4Cast to enumerate reliability, Rolls-Royce has been able to determine confidence in asset management and in project management policies. 4Cast also supports Rolls-Royce's programme to reduce the so-called `Disruption Index', a measure of the cost of supporting an engine.
The software has had a significant impact on the business performance and consequent economic achievement of Rolls-Royce, a global company supporting civil and defence aerospace, marine and energy markets worldwide.
Since 2008, statistical research at the University of Bristol has significantly influenced policies, practices and tools aimed at evaluating and promoting the quality of institutional and student learning in the education sector in the UK and internationally. These developments have also spread beyond the education sector and influence the inferential methods employed across government and other sectors. The underpinning research develops methodologies and a much-used suite of associated software packages that allows effective inference from complicated data structures, which are not well-modelled using traditional statistical techniques that assume homogeneity across observational units. The ability to analyse complicated data (such as pupil performance measures when measured alongside school, classroom, context and community factors) has resulted in a significant transformation of government and institutional policies and their practices in the UK, and recommendations in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) policy documents. These techniques for transforming complex data into useful evidence are well-used across the UK civil service, with consequent policy shifts in areas such as higher education admissions and the REF2014 equality and diversity criteria.
In a series of papers from 2003, Gibson (Maxwell Institute) and collaborators developed Bayesian computational methods for fitting stochastic models for epidemic dynamics. These were subsequently applied to the design of control programmes for pathogens of humans and plants. A first application concerns the bacterial infection Clostridium difficile in hospital wards. A stochastic model was developed which was instrumental in designing control measures, rolled out in 2008 across NHS Lothian region, and subsequently adopted across NHS Scotland. Incidence in Lothian reduced by around 65%, saving an estimated £3.5M per annum in treatment and other costs, reducing mortality and improving patient outcomes, with similar impacts elsewhere in Scotland. A second application concerns the spread of epidemics of plant disease in agricultural, horticultural and natural environments. Models developed in collaboration with plant scientists from Cambridge have been exploited by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Forestry Commission under a £25M scheme, initiated in 2009, to control sudden oak death in the UK, and by the United States Department of Agriculture to control sudden oak death in the USA.
Professor Hutton's research considers the biasing effect of selection of data due to consent procedures or selective reporting, and its consequences for the validity of conclusions and reliability of results. This research has had impacts on patients directly; on health and legal professionals by informing and influencing national and international guidelines for the treatment of epilepsy used by healthcare professionals and practitioners; and has provided expert evidence to legal professionals for the conclusion of civil litigations and a General Medical Council professional misconduct trial. Hutton's research also informs ethical debate associated with the validity and robustness of study results. This work has determined guidelines for ethical conduct of research, and requirements for publications, which are significant for all biomedical researchers.