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Research by Oxford econometricians provided the basis for innovative new methods for predicting periods of potential financial stress and providing protection for investors against extreme events. During periods of financial stress, equity funds tend to sharply lose value while volatility tends to increase. Adding some long volatility exposure to a standard equity portfolio can significantly improve the tail behaviour of a portfolio. However, it is expensive to continually hold volatility contracts due to the volatility risk premium. Researchers at Man Group have applied the Oxford research to create new strategies to protect against tail risk and these are incorporated in their Tail Protect fund launched in October 2009.
Aston Business School has changed business activities of major reinsurance firms and awareness and understandings in the global reinsurance industry. It has done so by producing an integrated suite of strategy tools to support strategic positioning, relationship management and risk analysis and trading. Reinsurance firms have adopted these tools in their internal practices, for example, to increase premium income from target clients. The implementation of these tools was facilitated through 58 tailored reports to firms worldwide, 22 commissioned company-specific strategy workshops, targeted distribution of our industry reports, invited presentations at prestigious events, and training activities for reinsurance professionals.
Research by Reimer Kühn (RK) and collaborators has produced a framework to study and quantify the influence of interactions on risk in complex systems, including default risk in economy-wide networks of financial exposures. This work has had impact on practitioners and professional services dealing with financial risk, including research groups at central banks, who — partly in response to the recent financial crisis — have adopted such network oriented approaches to analyse and quantify systemic risk. The Financial Stability Division at the Bank of England has, for instance, developed refined versions of the network-oriented models proposed by Kühn and collaborators to specifically assess risk in the British banking system.
Equity investors have twice suffered large losses, known as `drawdowns' on their investments in the last dozen years: in 2001 and 2009. This applies to both individuals and institutions and has had an adverse effect on both individuals' living standards entering retirement and the attitude of individuals to the advantages of long-term asset accumulation. The research of Professor Andrew Clare and Professor Stephen Thomas at City University London has created commercially available investment products that offer superior risk-adjusted returns with a transparent strategy supported by published, peer-reviewed research and which avoid such large losses. They developed a simple `trend following' 'smoothing` technique to create a diversified, developed market equity fund which was launched by WAY Fund Managers in March 2011. At the start of 2013, following the success of this strategy, the researchers launched an investible index, the Cass Trend Master Index, in collaboration with Credit Suisse. This index now forms the basis of several structured products predominantly aimed at institutional investors. In April 2013 the researchers launched another set of investible indices, based on the same investment principles, with Goldman Sachs and Indexx Markets. These focus on single asset classes including equities and commodities.
Research by Cathcart, McNeil (both Maxwell Institute) and Morrison (Barrie & Hibbert) during the period 2008-2012 has developed a methodology based on least squares Monte Carlo to value complex insurance liabilities and manage their risks. This methodology has been adopted by Barrie & Hibbert (B&H, part of Moody's Analytics) and has enabled the company to develop an internationally leading proposition for valuing insurance products. This has generated £2.5M in revenue since 2011, through implementation in 5 new products and use in 12 new consulting projects.
The largest investment banks in London each have thousands of servers largely devoted to Monte Carlo simulations, and to quantify their risks and satisfy regulatory demands they need to be able to calculate huge numbers of sensitivities (defined below) known collectively as "Greeks". An adjoint technique developed by Professor Mike Giles in 2006 greatly reduced the computational complexity of these calculations. The technique is used extensively by Credit Suisse and other major banks, reducing their computing costs and energy consumption. It has also led to the Numerical Algorithms Group developing new software to support the banks in exploiting this new adjoint approach to computing sensitivities.
As part of our commitment to public sociology (see REF3a), we have prioritised making Edinburgh sociological research on financial crises available to wider audiences: financial practitioners, policy makers and interested members of the general public. This has been primarily via six essays by Donald MacKenzie in the London Review of Books (LRB) and two invited articles in the Financial Times, listed in section 5.3. The impact of this research is in enhancing cultural understanding of finance and contributing to critical public debate. Evidence of its significance and reach includes: (a) public recognition (eg Prospect magazine naming MacKenzie amongst the 25 intellectuals with most impact on the "public conversation" about the financial crisis); (b) articles by others in prominent sources (the Financial Times and Economist) drawing on his work; (c) use of the Edinburgh University research in a major US corporate lawsuit; (d) reprints of the LRB articles eg in French and German public affairs magazines, in the booklets accompanying a Swedish exhibition and a Belgian art video, and in two financial-practitioner magazines.
Research undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM) has contributed to the development of a new interdisciplinary field, `Mathematical Behavioural Finance' (MBF), that deals with mathematical models of financial markets based on behavioural principles. These models go far beyond the conventional paradigm of fully rational utility maximization, and reflect a whole variety of patterns of market behaviour. A particular emphasis is on evolutionary aspects: growth, domination or just survival, especially in crisis environments.
Impacts can be seen in investment strategies based on MBF that have been successfully employed in large scale funds, since 2008, by Swiss and German corporate investors (AllMountain Capital AG and Deutsche Bank). These strategies have demonstrated high rates of return combined with relatively low volatility, coping exceptionally well with one of the most severe financial crises in recent history.
The Life Market is a major new global capital market for transferring longevity risk from corporate pension plans and annuity providers to long-term capital market investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and endowments, in exchange for a longevity risk premium (paid to the investors by the institutions laying off their longevity risk). Previously, the only source of longevity risk hedging was the insurance industry which, given that so many people are living much longer than anticipated, now has insufficient capacity to deal with this risk (estimated at $25trillion) on a global basis. The size of their future pension liabilities now present serious threats to the solvency of many companies. The longevity bonds and swaps designed by Professor David Blake at the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School, City University London, were integral to the creation and operation of the Life Market. The adoption of these bonds and swaps by investors has served to establish a global capital market investor base contributing towards the long-term availability of longevity solutions, benefiting the insurance and pensions industries, employers and, in turn, employees through greater security of their pensions in retirement.
This case study looks at the impact on the international finance industry and big business of research conducted at Heythrop College by Catherine Cowley. Cowley's work is transforming the ethical framework with which some of the most powerful corporations in the world operate and how they understand their role in society, as well as influencing the direction and content of the public debate over the ethics of finance and business.