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The ash cloud from the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 caused the cancellation of over 100,000 flights and cost an estimated £3 billion. The much larger eruption of Grimsvötn (also in Iceland) the following year caused only 900 flights to be cancelled and its economic cost was around one per cent of that associated with the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. A key factor in this huge reduction was the improved understanding of ash clouds provided by researchers at the University of Bristol. Drawing on research conducted over two decades and immediately after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the Bristol team were able to inform and advise airlines and major decision-makers such as the Civil Aviation Authority, the UK Government and the European Space Agency. The input has since had a beneficial impact around the globe and has directly affected decisions and research strategies made by the Met Office and Rolls-Royce regarding operational developments associated with volcanic ash monitoring and forecasting.
Technology developed at UoM on clouds and aerosols proved vital in deriving ash mass concentrations during the 2010 eruption of the Iceland volcano, verifying the Met Office model that was defining the airspace exclusion zone and predict ash loadings for the Civil Aviation Authority. The shutdown of airspace cost the airline industry worldwide an estimated $1.7bn, reaching $400m per day on April 19th. Reassurance provided by our verification allowed lifting of flight restrictions which had the immediate effect of re-opening airspace, relieving the impact on hundreds of thousands of people globally, leading to an estimated global saving to the industry of $10bn The approach has resulted in new long term airborne response capability at the Met Office.
The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that global society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Research at the University of Leeds has shown that volcanic gases and airborne particles could be a significant health hazard to humans — potentially more fatal than seasonal `flu. Leeds scientists used computer models to demonstrate that a long-lasting, gas-rich eruption in Iceland could degrade air quality and lead to well over 100,000 deaths across Europe. In January 2012, the number of potential fatalities was used as evidence by the UK government for the decision to add large-magnitude effusive Icelandic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies as a high priority risk with potentially widespread effects on health, agriculture and transport. Leeds researchers continue to advise the UK government on the mitigation of potential volcanic hazards through the Civil Contingencies Secretariat.
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland caused prolonged closure of European airspace, costing the global airline industry an estimated $200 million per day and disrupting 10 million passengers. We have developed and tested models that predict the dispersal of volcanic ash and developed instrumentation to monitor ash clouds during flight bans and used it to test the models. Our research played a key role in establishing the need for a flight ban and in the adoption of a more flexible approach to its staged lifting as the emergency continued. It also led to increased levels of readiness and to new emergency procedures being put in place across Europe which have minimised the economic costs and human inconvenience without an unacceptable rise in the risks to passengers and crew. The new procedures safely eliminated unnecessary disruption to flights in the latter days of the crisis and during the subsequent eruption of another Icelandic volcano, Grímsvötn in 2011.
Novel methods in applied physical volcanology, such as expert elicitation, and hazard and risk assessment, developed mostly during the ongoing volcanic crisis at Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat), continues to inform decision making, worker and public safety, and management of administrative hazard zones that control access. These methodologies have been adopted worldwide using Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) as an exemplar by the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO). Bristol researchers have advised on institutional programmes and informed international agencies, such as the United Nations and the World Bank, to reduce risk presented by volcanic hazards, and save lives. Such is the impact of Bristol's work at MVO it has been studied by up to nearly one million school children in the UK since 2008.
Andrew McGonigle's research is focused on the development of improved techniques for monitoring volcanic gases, data which are vital for assessing hazard levels and issuing pre-eruption evacuation alerts. The instrumentation derived from this research is considerably cheaper, more reliable and accurate and samples far more frequently than possible previously. These devices have been disseminated to at least 25 countries and are now used as internationally adopted standards by governmental agencies in monitoring and forecasting operations. McGonigle's work led to a Rolex Award for Enterprise in 2008, the Award citation stating that "his combination of science and advanced technology has the potential to save thousands of lives".
Our research since 1993 has led directly to demonstrable improvements in the physical representation of atmospheric particulates in the suite of Met Office numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. These models have had enormous reach and significance across the REF period in both public sector and commercial Met Office activities. Our measurements impact directly on the model prediction of air quality, extreme pollution events (for fire brigade, police and public agencies), visibility, cloud cover, rainfall, and snowfall (for defence and the public weather service, commercial aviation, utilities, road and rail sectors).
Measurements of sulphur dioxide emissions from volcanoes provide critical evidence for forecasting eruptions. From 2001 the research team led by Clive Oppenheimer (Department of Geography, University of Cambridge: Lecturer 1994-2003; Reader 2003-12; Professor 2012-) has shown that a new technique based on UV spectroscopy can revolutionise such measurements. The approach (awarded a US patent in 2006) has since 2008 come to underpin the state-of-the-art in operational surveillance of volcanic emissions worldwide, contributing significantly to hazard assessment and emergency management at over thirty volcanoes, and helping to save lives by providing early warning. The team has trained and supported volcanologists around the world in the methodology (in Costa Rica, 2008; Java, 2010; Iceland, 2012), and has helped in collecting data during volcanic crises (e.g. Merapi, 2010), contributing to planning decisions and the safety of local populations.
Kimberlite research at Bristol has been a collaborative enterprise with De Beers over the past 10 years. The research investigating the geology of kimberlites, and understanding the processes that form them and their associated diamond deposits, has clarified their importance to the diamond mining industry, ensuring high quality geological information informs their commercial activities. The success of this initiative has led to procedures and strategies being changed within De Beers, and led to the mitigation of potential future losses in the form of a decreased risk of failure of a resource model. Typically, such resource models can be valued at between tens and hundreds of millions of pounds.
Research focussed on understanding volcanic degassing and developing monitoring methods to forecast volcanic activity forms the basis of this impact case; this work was carried out by a group of academic staff and early-career researchers based in Cambridge. The arrival of large fluxes of sulphur-rich gases at the surface can be used to assess magma movement and forecast volcanic activity. This assessment feeds into local governmental decisions regarding risk mitigation and development planning, and the viability of commercial enterprises requiring access to volcanic areas. The development of automatic spectrometer networks for monitoring sulphur dioxide emissions was pioneered by this group. The prototype system was developed at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat and since then, the design has been patented and adopted at 20 volcano observatories worldwide.