Log in
Software has been developed by City University London in cooperation with Rolls-Royce that exploits the strengths of Bayesian statistics in improving the design of aircraft engines. The software, `4Cast', allows engineers to elicit design characteristics that in turn allow the design to be modelled relative to reliability targets. The targets are determined by failure rates. This enables better evaluation of design choices and of the risk of faults and failures in engines and supports rapid decisions as to whether a proposed design meets requirements.
By using 4Cast to enumerate reliability, Rolls-Royce has been able to determine confidence in asset management and in project management policies. 4Cast also supports Rolls-Royce's programme to reduce the so-called `Disruption Index', a measure of the cost of supporting an engine.
The software has had a significant impact on the business performance and consequent economic achievement of Rolls-Royce, a global company supporting civil and defence aerospace, marine and energy markets worldwide.
This study demonstrates how Bayes linear methodologies developed at Durham University have impacted on industrial practice. Two examples are given. The approach has been applied by London Underground Ltd. to the management of bridges, stations and other civil engineering assets, enabling a whole-life strategic approach to maintenance and renewal to reduce costs and increase safety. The approach has won a major award for innovation in engineering and technology. The methodology has also been applied by Unilever and Fera to improve methods of assessing product safety and in particular the risk of chemical ingredients in products causing allergic skin reactions.
The petrochemical industry is eager to develop advanced fuels which improve fuel efficiency both for economic and environmental reasons. Statistics plays a crucial role in this costly process. Innovative Bayesian methodology developed by Gilmour was applied at Shell Global Solutions to data from fuel experiments to solve a recurring statistical problem. The usefulness of this approach to the wider petrochemical industry has been recognized by the industry-based Coordinating European Council (CEC) for the Development of Performance Tests for Fuels, Lubricants and other Fluids, who in their statistics manual have included Gilmour's method as an alternative to procedures in the ISO 5725 standard.
New business models, technological innovations and global markets, demand that engineering firms better manage how they grow and achieve reliability during product development. A reliability growth modelling framework, developed from research at the University of Strathclyde, is being used by and influencing UK industry practice in the aerospace & defence sector. Our model underpins the modern approach to reliability growth management in Aero-Engine Controls (a Rolls-Royce company), Selex ES, and contributes to the Reliability Case required by the Ministry of Defence. The Strathclyde model is included in the international reliability growth standard (IEC 61164) which is adopted globally by manufacturing firms and procurement agencies.
Our research has been applied directly by Aviva plc. to develop improved products in the general insurance market (e.g. household and car) and in the more specialised area of enhanced pension annuities. As a result, Aviva has become more competitive in these markets and customers are enjoying better value for money. In the case of enhanced annuities, the benefits are in the form of higher pension income for those accurately identified as facing shortened life expectancies. Aviva is the largest insurance company in the UK and the sixth largest in the world.
Improvements in traffic flow on urban road networks have a direct daily impact on citizens, business and tourism. To make improvements, transportation planners and signal engineers rely on modelling and control software that implements mathematical methods designed to optimize traffic flows, signal timings or both. Research by Mike Smith's group at York since 1993 has led to:
R is a free and open-source software programming language and software environment for expressing and implementing statistical algorithms and graphics. It has become the lingua franca for developing and implementing new statistical methodologies — not just in statistics, but in applications across the whole spectrum of industry, from marketing and pharmaceuticals to finance. It is used by companies for research, analysis and production. Its power in analysing and visualising data helps organisations from charities to government. About one half of the core statistical modelling and graphics engine included in R builds on research carried out in Oxford.
The research at the University of Reading has developed statistical methods and information systems for two global monitoring systems for elephants: MIKE (Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants) and ETIS (Elephant Trade Information System). The systems provide quantitative evidence, via bias-adjusted indicators, on global and regional trends in the illegal killing of elephants and the illicit ivory trade. This evidence forms the substance of reports discussed at the Convention for International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Based on this information, CITES has adopted decisions to introduce interventions targeting over 20 countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East aimed at curbing the illegal ivory trade. As well as providing the underpinning data that has informed international policy on illicit trading of this threatened species, the evidence has also helped raise public awareness of the threats to elephants as well as improving monitoring systems and increasing their reach.
The WinBUGS software (and now OpenBUGS software), developed initially at Cambridge from 1989-1996 and then further at Imperial from 1996-2007, has made practical MCMC Bayesian methods readily available to applied statisticians and data analysts. The software has been instrumental in facilitating routine Bayesian analysis of a vast range of complex statistical problems covering a wide spectrum of application areas, and over 20 years after its inception, it remains the leading software tool for applied Bayesian analysis among both academic and non-academic communities internationally. WinBUGS had over 30,000 registered users as of 2009 (the software is now open-source and users are no longer required to register) and a Google search on the term `WinBUGS' returns over 205,000 hits (over 42,000 of which are since 2008) with applications as diverse as astrostatistics, solar radiation modelling, fish stock assessments, credit risk assessment, production of disease maps and atlases, drug development and healthcare provider profiling.