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The use of multilevel statistical modelling has led to improved evidence-based policy making in education and other sectors

Summary of the impact

Since 2008, statistical research at the University of Bristol has significantly influenced policies, practices and tools aimed at evaluating and promoting the quality of institutional and student learning in the education sector in the UK and internationally. These developments have also spread beyond the education sector and influence the inferential methods employed across government and other sectors. The underpinning research develops methodologies and a much-used suite of associated software packages that allows effective inference from complicated data structures, which are not well-modelled using traditional statistical techniques that assume homogeneity across observational units. The ability to analyse complicated data (such as pupil performance measures when measured alongside school, classroom, context and community factors) has resulted in a significant transformation of government and institutional policies and their practices in the UK, and recommendations in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) policy documents. These techniques for transforming complex data into useful evidence are well-used across the UK civil service, with consequent policy shifts in areas such as higher education admissions and the REF2014 equality and diversity criteria.

Submitting Institution

University of Bristol

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Information and Computing Sciences: Computation Theory and Mathematics, Information Systems

UOA10-14: R, a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics

Summary of the impact

R is a free and open-source software programming language and software environment for expressing and implementing statistical algorithms and graphics. It has become the lingua franca for developing and implementing new statistical methodologies — not just in statistics, but in applications across the whole spectrum of industry, from marketing and pharmaceuticals to finance. It is used by companies for research, analysis and production. Its power in analysing and visualising data helps organisations from charities to government. About one half of the core statistical modelling and graphics engine included in R builds on research carried out in Oxford.

Submitting Institution

University of Oxford

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Information and Computing Sciences: Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing, Computer Software

Synthetic weather sequences informing engineering design and supporting decisions about infrastructure

Summary of the impact

Research conducted in UCL's Department of Statistical Science has led to the development of a state-of-the-art software package for generating synthetic weather sequences, which has been widely adopted, both in the UK and abroad. The synthetic sequences are used by engineers and policymakers when assessing the effectiveness of potential mitigation and management strategies for weather-related hazards such as floods. In the UK, the software package is used for engineering design; for example, to inform the design of flood defences. In Australia it is being used to inform climate change adaptation strategies. Another significant impact is that UCL's analysis of rainfall trends in southwest Western Australia directly supported the decision of the state's Department of Water to approve the expansion of a seawater desalination plant at a cost of around AUS$450 million. The capacity of the plant was doubled to 100 billion litres per year in January 2013 and it now produces nearly one third of Perth's water supply.

Submitting Institution

University College London

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences

C4 - BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling)

Summary of the impact

The WinBUGS software (and now OpenBUGS software), developed initially at Cambridge from 1989-1996 and then further at Imperial from 1996-2007, has made practical MCMC Bayesian methods readily available to applied statisticians and data analysts. The software has been instrumental in facilitating routine Bayesian analysis of a vast range of complex statistical problems covering a wide spectrum of application areas, and over 20 years after its inception, it remains the leading software tool for applied Bayesian analysis among both academic and non-academic communities internationally. WinBUGS had over 30,000 registered users as of 2009 (the software is now open-source and users are no longer required to register) and a Google search on the term `WinBUGS' returns over 205,000 hits (over 42,000 of which are since 2008) with applications as diverse as astrostatistics, solar radiation modelling, fish stock assessments, credit risk assessment, production of disease maps and atlases, drug development and healthcare provider profiling.

Submitting Institution

Imperial College London

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics

Improved Insurance Products for the Multinational Insurance Industry

Summary of the impact

Our research has been applied directly by Aviva plc. to develop improved products in the general insurance market (e.g. household and car) and in the more specialised area of enhanced pension annuities. As a result, Aviva has become more competitive in these markets and customers are enjoying better value for money. In the case of enhanced annuities, the benefits are in the form of higher pension income for those accurately identified as facing shortened life expectancies. Aviva is the largest insurance company in the UK and the sixth largest in the world.

Submitting Institution

University of East Anglia

Unit of Assessment

Computer Science and Informatics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics

Enabling the econometric analysis of policy interventions

Summary of the impact

The research created programs for the Stata statistical software environment that are used by thousands of researchers in economics and other fields around the world in academia, the private sector, government and quasi-governmental organisations, with approximately 400,000 downloads in the REF 2014 period. The core programs enable researchers to rigorously analyse the causal impact of a policy in settings where an experiment is infeasible and for experiments where take-up of treatment is incomplete, i.e. for the settings in which the vast majority of empirical work is done. The programmes are used to analyse complex data to establish causal links across a broad range of policy areas.

Submitting Institution

Heriot-Watt University

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics

Accurately dating the past – OxCal: free software for the calibration of radiocarbon dates

Summary of the impact

OxCal is the most popular software package world-wide for calibrating and analysing dates within the carbon dating process, enabling the accurate dating of objects from the past. The brainchild of Prof. Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Director of the Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit (ORAU), OxCal is based on chronologies refined by the use of Bayesian statistical methods, and provides users with access to high-quality calibration of chronological data, now the basis for global chronologies. It is available online and free to download, and has played a highly significant role in establishing the ORAU as one of the pre-eminent international radiocarbon dating facilities. Funded by the NERC, and used widely within professional archaeology as well as other disciplines, OxCal has also played a key role in research projects (within Oxford and beyond) brought to the attention of the general public by the media.

Submitting Institution

University of Oxford

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Earth Sciences: Geology
History and Archaeology: Archaeology

Improving data analysis via better statistical infrastructure

Summary of the impact

A generalized additive model (GAM) explores the extent to which a single output variable of a complex system in a noisy environment can be described by a sum of smooth functions of several input variables.

Bath research has substantially improved the estimation and formulation of GAMs and hence

  • driven the wide uptake, outside academia, of generalized additive models,
  • increased the scope of applicability of these models.

This improved statistical infrastructure has resulted in improved data analysis by practitioners in fields such as natural resource management, energy load prediction, environmental impact assessment, climate policy, epidemiology, finance and economics. In REF impact terms, such changes in practice by practitioners leads ultimately to direct economic and societal benefits, health benefits and policy changes. Below, these impacts are illustrated via two specific examples: (1) use of the methods by the energy company EDF for electricity load forecasting and (2) their use in environmental management. The statistical methods are implemented in R via the software package mgcv, largely written at Bath. As a `recommended' R package mgcv has also contributed to the global growth of R, which currently has an estimated 1.2M business users worldwide [A].

Submitting Institution

University of Bath

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Applied Mathematics, Statistics
Economics: Econometrics

Transforming the efficiency of Ford’s engine production line

Summary of the impact

Through a close collaboration with Ford Motor Company, simulation modelling software developed at the University of Southampton has streamlined the design of the car giant's engine production lines, increasing efficiency and delivering significant economic benefits in three key areas. Greater productivity across Ford Europe's assembly operations has generated a significant amount [exact figure removed] in direct cost savings since 2010. Automatic analysis of machine data has resulted in both a 20-fold reduction in development time, saving a large sum per year [exact figure removed], and fewer opportunities for human error that could disrupt the performance of production lines costing a large sum [exact amount removed] each to program.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics

Impact of Machine-Learning based Visual Analytics

Summary of the impact

Visual analytics is a powerful method for understanding large and complex datasets that makes information accessible to non-statistically trained users. The Non-linearity and Complexity Research Group (NCRG) developed several fundamental algorithms and brought them to users by developing interactive software tools (e.g. Netlab pattern analysis toolbox in 2002 (more than 40,000 downloads), Data Visualisation and Modelling System (DVMS) in 2012).

Industrial products. These software tools are used by industrial partners (Pfizer, Dstl) in their business activities. The algorithms have been integrated into a commercial tool (p:IGI) used in geochemical analysis for oil and gas exploration with a 60% share of the worldwide market.

Improving business performance. As an enabling technology, visual analytics has played an important role in the data analysis that has led to the development of new products, such as the Body Volume Index, and the enhancement of existing products (Wheelright: automated vehicle tyre pressure measurement).

Impact on practitioners. The software is used to educate and train skilled people internationally in more than 6 different institutions and is also used by finance professionals.

Submitting Institution

Aston University

Unit of Assessment

Computer Science and Informatics

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Information and Computing Sciences: Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing, Computation Theory and Mathematics, Information Systems

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