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The ash cloud from the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 caused the cancellation of over 100,000 flights and cost an estimated £3 billion. The much larger eruption of Grimsvötn (also in Iceland) the following year caused only 900 flights to be cancelled and its economic cost was around one per cent of that associated with the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. A key factor in this huge reduction was the improved understanding of ash clouds provided by researchers at the University of Bristol. Drawing on research conducted over two decades and immediately after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the Bristol team were able to inform and advise airlines and major decision-makers such as the Civil Aviation Authority, the UK Government and the European Space Agency. The input has since had a beneficial impact around the globe and has directly affected decisions and research strategies made by the Met Office and Rolls-Royce regarding operational developments associated with volcanic ash monitoring and forecasting.
Impacts: I) Operational decision making during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, including that of the UK Civil Aviation Authority to relax airspace restrictions over Europe. II) Strategic planning for future volcanic hazards, including the 2012 classification by the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies of Icelandic volcanic eruptions as a `highest priority risk'.
Significance and reach: The relaxation of airspace restrictions over Europe affected up to ten million travellers and mitigated on-going airline industry costs of up to £130 million per day.
Underpinned by: Research into the size, frequency and dynamics of Icelandic volcanic eruptions, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (2006 — January 2013).
Our research since 1993 has led directly to demonstrable improvements in the physical representation of atmospheric particulates in the suite of Met Office numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. These models have had enormous reach and significance across the REF period in both public sector and commercial Met Office activities. Our measurements impact directly on the model prediction of air quality, extreme pollution events (for fire brigade, police and public agencies), visibility, cloud cover, rainfall, and snowfall (for defence and the public weather service, commercial aviation, utilities, road and rail sectors).
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland caused prolonged closure of European airspace, costing the global airline industry an estimated $200 million per day and disrupting 10 million passengers. We have developed and tested models that predict the dispersal of volcanic ash and developed instrumentation to monitor ash clouds during flight bans and used it to test the models. Our research played a key role in establishing the need for a flight ban and in the adoption of a more flexible approach to its staged lifting as the emergency continued. It also led to increased levels of readiness and to new emergency procedures being put in place across Europe which have minimised the economic costs and human inconvenience without an unacceptable rise in the risks to passengers and crew. The new procedures safely eliminated unnecessary disruption to flights in the latter days of the crisis and during the subsequent eruption of another Icelandic volcano, Grímsvötn in 2011.
Measurements made by unique radiosondes, conceived at and built by the university to count and size atmospheric aerosols, were used to validate UK Met Office models that forecast the amount and trajectory of the volcanic ash from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. These first in situ measurements justified the authorities' cautious approach in grounding flights, thereby not jeopardising air passenger safety, despite huge pressure from commercial interests. The Met Office subsequently purchased further radiosondes for future deployment, and the underpinning particle detection technology is now licensed to a UK company for worldwide exploitation in areas of environmental monitoring, air quality and industrial safety.
The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that global society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Research at the University of Leeds has shown that volcanic gases and airborne particles could be a significant health hazard to humans — potentially more fatal than seasonal `flu. Leeds scientists used computer models to demonstrate that a long-lasting, gas-rich eruption in Iceland could degrade air quality and lead to well over 100,000 deaths across Europe. In January 2012, the number of potential fatalities was used as evidence by the UK government for the decision to add large-magnitude effusive Icelandic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies as a high priority risk with potentially widespread effects on health, agriculture and transport. Leeds researchers continue to advise the UK government on the mitigation of potential volcanic hazards through the Civil Contingencies Secretariat.
Particulate Matter is now recognised as the air pollutant with the greatest public health impact, estimated to cost up to £8.5-20.2 billion per annum (in 2005).Roy Harrison has engaged closely with UK policy-makers for decades. This impact case study focuses specifically on the take-up of PM mass-closure techniques developed by Harrison's group into a UK policy-making tool called Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM). Work by the Harrison group forms the basis of the component dealing with airborne particles in the PCM model used by Defra. The work described in this case study has economic impact in the form of costs avoided by the UK national, devolved and local governments (reallocation of public budgets away from expensive air pollution monitoring and avoidance of EU financial penalties), public policy impact in the form of cost-effective delivery of air pollution mapping, and environmental impact in the form of traceable inclusion of research in government policies for air quality improvement.
Since 1994, the university has pioneered the development of spatial light scattering for the rapid detection and classification of various types of airborne particle. This `particle thumbprint' technology, based on an analysis of the detailed 2-dimensional pattern of light scattered by each particle, has since found worldwide application.
Over the 2008-13 period, the technology was exploited by commercial companies and research organisations from the USA, mainland Europe, the UK and Japan in areas including military bioaerosol detection; atmospheric cloud microphysics and climate research; particle/powder process control; stack emissions monitoring; environmental pollution assessment; and, most recently, the real-time detection of hazardous airborne asbestos fibres.
Andrew McGonigle's research is focused on the development of improved techniques for monitoring volcanic gases, data which are vital for assessing hazard levels and issuing pre-eruption evacuation alerts. The instrumentation derived from this research is considerably cheaper, more reliable and accurate and samples far more frequently than possible previously. These devices have been disseminated to at least 25 countries and are now used as internationally adopted standards by governmental agencies in monitoring and forecasting operations. McGonigle's work led to a Rolex Award for Enterprise in 2008, the Award citation stating that "his combination of science and advanced technology has the potential to save thousands of lives".
Research focussed on understanding volcanic degassing and developing monitoring methods to forecast volcanic activity forms the basis of this impact case; this work was carried out by a group of academic staff and early-career researchers based in Cambridge. The arrival of large fluxes of sulphur-rich gases at the surface can be used to assess magma movement and forecast volcanic activity. This assessment feeds into local governmental decisions regarding risk mitigation and development planning, and the viability of commercial enterprises requiring access to volcanic areas. The development of automatic spectrometer networks for monitoring sulphur dioxide emissions was pioneered by this group. The prototype system was developed at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat and since then, the design has been patented and adopted at 20 volcano observatories worldwide.