Log in
Geman's research has made contributions to exotic option pricing, insurance and catastrophic risk, high frequency trading, and the whole spectrum of commodities, from crude oil and electricity to metals and agricultural commodities. Her research identified complex options and derivatives for commodities, and their applications for risk management and the valuation of physical assets for energy and mining companies, as a relatively under-researched and neglected field, and has made several scientific contributions to it (detailed in section 2).
There are four impacts detailed in this case study:
The energy regulator, Ofgem, drew on research from the University of Birmingham when it instructed the electricity industry to re-design transmission charges that recover £1.6 billion per year. This instruction, issued in May 2012, was the culmination of Project TransmiT which Ofgem launched in September 2010. As part of TransmiT, Ofgem commissioned three teams of academics to consider whether changes to transmission prices were desirable and, if so, to recommend changes. One of these teams was from the Universities of Birmingham and Strathclyde. The changes introduced by Ofgem — which aimed to send more accurate signals of the cost of dealing with low-carbon electricity — were those recommended by the Birmingham and Strathclyde team. As a consequence, the research has fundamentally shaped a significant change to the future of electricity pricing in Great Britain, affecting the costs incurred by the industry and the payments made by every consumer in the country.
The banking crisis that followed the collapse of Northern Rock in 2007 resulted in an urgent need to inject liquidity into the financial system. In order to resolve these issues, the Bank of England asked Professor Klemperer, an expert in auction theory, to help re-dseign its long-term market operations to allow the Bank of England to auction loans backed by financial collateral of varying quality. Since 2010, this has been adopted as the Bank of England's standard mechanism for its long-term repurchase operations. The potential impact of the new auction design extends beyond the Bank of England to other central banks, private industry and to industry regulators.
Financial engineering and optimisation provide both power companies and consumers with better decision support in deregulated energy sectors. UCL research has delivered the following benefits to decision makers: (i) a clearer understanding of the role of statistical analysis in imputing missing data on wind speeds and (ii) reduction in energy costs by optimised scheduling of energy technologies. Other benefits have been (i) investment in follow-up research projects by industrial companies and (ii) knowledge transfer via workshops.
Pricing optimisation and revenue management systems represent fundamental progress from the art of pricing to the science of pricing. Our research led the scientific approach in demand modelling and pricing optimization, and produced the first computerised Intelligent Pricing Decision Support Systems (IPDSS) for retail and petroleum, which have led to economic impact and changes in pricing practice. Our research led to spin-off companies that employ over 150 people, with a turnover of £19.2m in 2012, which are the leading providers of IPDSS, used by more than 400 retailers across 80 countries to improve their performance in competitive markets.
This study is part of a research project on China's electricity industry conducted jointly with the Université de la Méditerranée in France, and Swiss Electricity Ltd, and is funded by the EU. Despite three decades of market-oriented reforms in China, the electricity price-formation process is still state-controlled. The study shows how this process induces electricity producers to manipulate costs to gain an advantage when negotiating prices with the state. Consequently, despite government intervention, industrial consumers in China pay as much as their counterparts in developed Western economies with liberalised electricity sectors. These findings have informed the latest plans for price reform being prepared by the electricity regulator in China.
The Electricity Policy Research Group (EPRG), led by Professor David Newbery, has undertaken research into electricity market restructuring, privatisation and regulation that has achieved internationally leading status among public policy makers. Government users, both national and international (in the UK, Ireland and the European Commission) request EPRG policy advice on electricity market design, monitoring for market abuse, regulation of transmission and distribution, and design of access pricing. Industrial users demand analytical briefings and credit EPRG for moving the debate from rhetoric to more quantitative approaches.
The Coalition government's manifesto commitments to remove compulsion in the annuity market necessitated a decision about a Minimum Income Requirement (MIR). Cannon's contribution to the government consultation played a significant role in setting the MIR. Previous research by Cannon had shown that the UK compulsory-purchase annuity market was efficient because compulsion expanded market size (more than half of all annuities are sold in the UK) and reduced selection effects. This research enabled the government to justify retaining an element of compulsion. The precise level of the MIR used in the 2011 Finance Bill was based upon the methodology proposed by Cannon.
Research led by Stephen Taylor has resulted in the development of forecasting methods for financial market prices and [text removed for publication] analytical tool at the Macro-Financial Analysis Division of the Bank of England. These methods have been cited in papers by employees of the European Central Bank, the Central Banks of Brazil, Norway and Mexico and the Italian Securities and Exchange Commission. The ability to manage risk by making more accurate predictions about financial market prices has been particularly important since the onset of the economic and financial crisis in 2008. Taylor has developed forecasting methods to make the best use of information recorded about recent asset and derivative prices, providing more precise expectations about future stock index levels, exchange rates and interest rates. Taylor's 2005 text on `Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility and Prediction' has also had significant and far-reaching impact on students learning about Finance and Economics worldwide.
From the 1990s UCL Economics invested in the capacity to conduct fundamental and applied research in behavioural and experimental economics. This was the basis for the research which provided the evidence base for the Office of Fair Trading to identify and act upon misleading pricing practices, particularly `drip pricing', in 2010. As a result, 12 major airlines announced that they would include debit card charges in their headline prices, and government announced that the EU-wide Consumer Rights Directive would be implemented a year earlier than it was due to go into effect.