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Researchers in the Global Environmental Modelling and Earth Observation (GEMEO) group at Swansea University have used satellite data to improve weather forecasts and climate predictions. Using observations of the Earth's land surface from NASA's orbiting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) flying on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, Swansea University has worked directly with two leading meteorological agencies — the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) — to refine the way in which land is represented in their numerical weather prediction models. Improved weather forecasting is of clear benefit to society, facilitating day-to-day planning by the public, agriculture, commerce, utility suppliers and transport sectors, as well as preparation for extreme weather events such as floods, heat waves and droughts. The Met Office provides daily weather forecasts for the UK, while the ECMWF model is routinely used by over 30 countries for weather, aviation planning and extreme event warning. The Met Office states that the research presented here has resulted in significantly improved weather forecasts, in particular of rainfall and temperature, and more realistic climate simulations to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ECMWF reports improvement of precipitation forecast, increasing predicted summer rainfall by 7%, and its variability, which is relevant to flood and drought forecast, increased by 30%.
Departmental research led to changes in how radiation forces on several classes of space vehicle (low earth orbit environmental measurement satellites and medium earth orbit navigation missions like GPS) are modelled by two NASA laboratories (Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Goddard Space Flight Centre). This includes NASA's adoption of a UCL model as an operational standard for Jason-1, which measured global sea level change from 2001 to 2013. Jason-1 measurements are a critical component of data supplied to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, thereby feeding into policy formulation seeking to mitigate the effects of climate change upon the entire population of Earth. The techniques also changed the way in which GPS satellite orbits are calculated, with products used by many millions of users.
University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO2 emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.
Research at the University of Manchester on the risk and cost of wildfire has altered government policy, changed firefighting practice and help conserve a National Park. Aylen's advice to the Resilience & Emergencies Division of the Department for Communities & Local Government in 2012 ahead of a submission to the Cabinet Office helped build the case for inclusion of wildfire in the Government's National Risk Assessment. His confidential briefings drew extensively on his published research on the novel topic of forecasting and costing wildfire incidents in the UK and his unpublished work on the costs of the Swinley wildfire in 2011.