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The Warner-McIntyre parametrization scheme for non-topographic atmospheric gravity waves, developed at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (DAMTP), University of Cambridge, during the period from 1993 to 2004, has since 2010 been used by the UK Met Office in their operational models for seasonal forecasting and climate prediction .The parametrization is regarded by the Met Office as a vital part of improved representation of the stratosphere in those models, which in turn has been shown to lead to significant operational benefits.
Large-amplitude horizontally propagating internal solitary waves commonly occur in the interior of the ocean. This case study presents evidence to demonstrate the impact of research conducted by Professor Grimshaw at Loughborough University on the development and utilisation of Korteweg- de Vries (KdV) models of these waves, which has formed the paradigm for the theoretical modelling and practical prediction of these waves.
These waves are highly significant for sediment transport, continental shelf biology and interior ocean mixing, while their associated currents cause strong forces on marine platforms, underwater pipelines and submersibles, and the strong distortion of the density field has a severe impact on acoustic signalling.
The theory developed at Loughborough University has had substantial impact on the strategies developed by marine and naval engineers and scientists in dealing with these issues.
A two-dimensional flood inundation model called LISFLOOD-FP, which was created by a team led by Professor Paul Bates at the University of Bristol, has served as a blueprint for the flood risk management industry in the UK and many other countries. The documentation and published research for the original model, developed in 1999, and the subsequent improvements made in over a decade of research, have been integrated into clones of LISFLOOD-FP that have been produced by numerous risk management consultancies. This has not only saved commercial code developers' time but also improved the predictive capability of models used in a multimillion pound global industry that affects tens of millions of people annually. Between 2008 and 2013, clones of LISFLOOD-FP have been used to: i) develop national flood risk products for countries around the world; ii) facilitate the pricing of flood re-insurance contracts in a number of territories worldwide; and iii) undertake numerous individual flood inundation mapping studies in the UK and overseas. In the UK alone, risk assessments from LISFLOOD-FP clones are used in the Environment Agency's Flood Map (accessed on average 300,000 times a month by 50,000 unique browsers), in every property legal search, in every planning application assessment and in the pricing of the majority of flood re-insurance contracts. This has led to more informed and, hence, better flood risk management. A shareware version of the code has been available on the University of Bristol website since December 2010. As of September 2013, the shareware had received over 312 unique downloads from 54 different countries.
Data assimilation is playing an ever increasing role in weather forecasting. Implementing four- dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is part of the long term strategy of the UK Met Office.
In this case study, an idealised 4DVAR scheme, developed by a team from the Universities of Surrey and Reading working with the UK Met Office, based on the integration of Hamiltonian dynamics and nonlinearity into data assimilation, has now been taken up by the Met Office. It is being used to evaluate options for improving operational 4DVAR. The simplicity of the scheme developed by this team has facilitated careful analyses of some generic problems with the operational model. The outcome includes direct impact on the environment and indirect impact on the economy, both through improvements in weather forecasting.
Examples are provided of significant impact by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Flow Analysis (CMMFA) upon the Marine Renewables and Offshore Wind communities. In particular, CMMFA informed the design of a novel wave energy converter being commercialised for connection to the national grid. CMMFA has also contributed to a study of the design parameters for an offshore wind power station as part of a larger interdisciplinary collaborative research effort. This work responds to and informs the RCUK Energy Programme via underpinning research, capacity building and provision of trained personnel thus enacting UK Government Energy Policy.
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland caused prolonged closure of European airspace, costing the global airline industry an estimated $200 million per day and disrupting 10 million passengers. We have developed and tested models that predict the dispersal of volcanic ash and developed instrumentation to monitor ash clouds during flight bans and used it to test the models. Our research played a key role in establishing the need for a flight ban and in the adoption of a more flexible approach to its staged lifting as the emergency continued. It also led to increased levels of readiness and to new emergency procedures being put in place across Europe which have minimised the economic costs and human inconvenience without an unacceptable rise in the risks to passengers and crew. The new procedures safely eliminated unnecessary disruption to flights in the latter days of the crisis and during the subsequent eruption of another Icelandic volcano, Grímsvötn in 2011.
The impact arises from the study of extreme ocean waves and their interaction with marine structures. It is relevant to the offshore, shipping, coastal and marine renewables industries and has been both economic and regulatory, involving:
(a) The establishment of revised guidelines for the design of new structures / vessels.
(b) Enhancing best practice, both from an economic and a safety perspective.
(c) Reducing the uncertainty in critical design issues, thereby improving overall reliability.
(d) Enabling "end-of-life" extensions for existing structures.
(e) Facilitating the effective decommissioning of redundant structures.
(f) Contributing to the development of new industrial R&D equipment, thereby assisting specialist UK manufacturers to secure international orders.
Ocean circulation accounts for much of the energy that drives weather and climate systems; errors in the representation of the ocean circulation in computational models affect the validity of forecasts of the dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere on daily, seasonal and decadal time scales. Research undertaken by the University of Reading investigated systematic model errors that resulted from data assimilation schemes embedded in the key processes used to predict ocean circulation. The researchers developed a new bias correction technique for use in ocean data assimilation that alleviates these errors. This has led to significant improvements in the accuracy of the forecasts of ocean dynamics. The technique has been implemented by the Met Office and by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in their forecasting systems, resulting in major improvements to the prediction of the weather and climate from oceanic and atmospheric models. The assimilation technique is also leading to better use of expensively acquired satellite and in-situ data and improving ocean and atmosphere forecasts used by shipping and civil aviation, energy providers, insurance companies, the agriculture and fishing communities, food suppliers and the general public. The impact of the correction procedure is also important for anticipating and mitigating hazardous weather conditions and the effects of long-term climate change.
Research carried out at the University of Leeds has led to the development of a system for predicting severe air turbulence at airports and elsewhere. The research modelled highly localised `rotor streaming' turbulence which is too small-scale to predict using today's numerical weather prediction models. The Met Office now uses the highly efficient 3DVOM computer prediction model, based on the Leeds research, to improve its operational weather forecasting, especially for providing warnings of `gustiness' to the public and airports and to highlight risks of overturning of high-sided vehicles. In addition, the model is used by forecasters to predict dangerous turbulence at Mount Pleasant Airport in the Falkland Islands, and has led to the prevention of around five flight diversions per year at an estimated cost saving of £1.25 million.
Edinburgh Designs Ltd., (EDL) was spun-out to exploit ERPE research from the original Wave Power Group. With six staff and an annual turnover approaching £2M EDL has supplied the equipment and control systems for wave tanks in 19 countries including the world's largest computer-controlled wave test facility, the US Navy Manoeuvring and Station Keeping Tank. They are currently completing the world's first circular tank, combining waves with currents in any relative direction, which is operated by the 6 person company, "FloWave" EDL, still run by the founding staff, it is the world-leading supplier of wave-making technology for scientific and recreational facilities.