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Human activity leads to the emission of many greenhouse gases that differ from carbon dioxide (CO2) in their ability to cause climate change. International climate policy requires the use of an "exchange rate" to place emissions of such gases on a "CO2-equivalent" scale. These exchange rates are calculated using "climate emission metrics" (hereafter "metrics") which enable the comparison of the climate effect of the emission of a given gas with emissions of CO2. Research in the Unit has contributed directly to (i) the calculation of inputs required for such metrics, (ii) the compilation of listings of the effects for a large number of gases and (iii) the consideration of alternative metric formulations. During the assessment period this work has been used in the implementation of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and in decisions and discussions (which began in 2005) on the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period (2013-2020), as well to intergovernmental debate on aspects of the use of metrics in climate agreements.
University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO2 emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.
Successful policy formulation and effective action on ozone depletion and climate change, both of which have profound environmental implications, depend on the availability of credible data on atmospheric gases. Research conducted in the School of Chemistry at the University of Bristol between 1992 and 2013 has played a leading role in global efforts to achieve reliable, long-term measurement of climatically important gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O. When combined with models of atmospheric gas transport, these observations provide an independent means of assessing natural and man-made emissions. This work is used by the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for monitoring compliance with international and domestic legislation, identifying priorities for improving inventory accuracy, assessing the UK's progress towards targets set in the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols, evaluating the impact of policy, and informing international negotiations. These data have been central to recent World Meteorological Office (WMO) Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion produced between 2007 and 2010 and to the Nobel Prize-winning Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment of Climate Change published in 2007.
Research undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM) has enhanced capacity for assessing and responding to climate change impacts and risks in urban areas, by moving from basic research around user requirements to the development of scaleable decision support tools. The needs of end users have been considered from the outset, with a co-production model of research — academics working in joint enterprise with stakeholders from the public, private and third sectors — leading to enhanced take-up of the resulting ideas, tools and techniques. Impacts are based upon supporting climate change adaptation responses within planning authorities, at local, regional, national and international scales, with the web-based climate change adaptation tools, developed at UoM, now freely available to municipalities worldwide.
The government expects local councils to play a vital role in making sure the UK is prepared for climate change. Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in the UK, has worked in partnership with University of Birmingham (UoB) researchers in the BUCCANEER project (Birmingham Urban Climate Change Adaptation with Neighbourhood Estimates of Environmental Risk). The city has drawn extensively on the tool developed from BUCCANEER to inform their approach to adapting city systems to the increased likelihood of extreme temperatures in the future. This is a particular risk to cities like Birmingham where the projected higher overall temperatures in the UK as a result of climate change would exacerbate the existing urban heat island effect and produce potentially-damaging consequences for inner city areas. The project has had public policy impact by informing the approach taken by the City's influential Green Commission and by direct inclusion in the City Council's new development guidance. Temperature change and the urban heat island have now become mandatory factors to be considered for all developments requiring permission and guidance explicitly points developers towards BUCCANEER as the tool with which to consider this factor. A second public policy impact derives from the value of the tool for health planning: a significant proportion of the inner-city population is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures through age or ill-health and live where the heat island effect is shown to be largest. This aspect is now being increasingly employed by Public Health analysts and managers in the City.
Results from climate physics research at the University of Oxford have demonstrated that targets for cumulative carbon emissions, rather than greenhouse gas concentrations, are a more effective approach to limiting future climate change. This new approach and the resulting `trillionth tonne' concept have had substantial political and economic implications. Impacts since 2009 include (a) stimulus to policy developments; (b) influence on the business decisions of Shell e.g. to invest in a $1.35bn carbon capture and storage facility; and (c) significant public and media debate with a global reach.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
Impact type: Public Policy
Significance: The research provided evidence for formulation of government policies to ameliorate poor air quality, to which fine particulate matter (PM2.5), O3 and NO2 are the most important contributors; PM2.5 alone reduces average life expectancy in the UK by 6 months and costs £9bn-£20bn a year. The research has been incorporated into UK national guidance and policy-evidence documents for Defra, the Health Protection Agency, and the Environment Agencies.
Beneficiaries are the public and the environment.
Research; date; attribution: EaStCHEM research (1995-2011) (a) established reliable techniques to measure NO2 for a national protocol, and (b) quantified the impact of pollutant emissions on PM2.5 and O3 concentrations, and on hospital admissions and deaths. Heal (EaStCHEM) led the research and wrote, collaboratively in some cases, the reports and the work cited.
Reach: UK wide.
Extreme heat events are likely to occur more frequently in a warmer future climate. Cities worldwide are concerned that the urban heat island effect will exacerbate the impact of climate change on urban populations and infrastructure. The UK government expects local councils to play a vital role in making sure the country is prepared for climate change. Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in the UK, has worked in partnership with the University of Birmingham (UoB) in the BUCCANEER project (Birmingham Urban Climate Change Adaptation with Neighbourhood Estimates of Environmental Risk). The city has drawn extensively on BUCCANEER to design climate resilience into their city systems. The project has had public policy impact by informing the City's influential Green Commission and by being included in the City Council's new development Guidance — urban temperature change has become a mandatory factor to be considered for every new development requiring permission in the city. The guidance explicitly points developers towards BUCCANEER as the tool with which to consider this factor. A second public policy impact derives from the value of the tool for health planning: a significant proportion of the inner-city population is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures through age or ill-health and live where the heat island effect is shown to be largest. This aspect is now being increasingly employed by Public Health analysts and managers in the city. As a result of the city/university partnership, Birmingham has been recognised by the European Union as a Peer City and source of best practice for urban climate resilience.
A novel approach to climate science has resulted in over 260,000 members of the public worldwide choosing to engage in a climate modelling project. By contributing resources that require their time and attention, they have become `citizen scientists'. The project has resulted in greater interest, understanding and engagement with climate science by participants; wider public discussion of climate science; and influence on policy and practice. Over 3000 people, including professionals in developing countries, have benefitted through education and training. The project has also advanced the development and awareness of `volunteer computing'.