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Research undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM) has contributed to the development of a new interdisciplinary field, `Mathematical Behavioural Finance' (MBF), that deals with mathematical models of financial markets based on behavioural principles. These models go far beyond the conventional paradigm of fully rational utility maximization, and reflect a whole variety of patterns of market behaviour. A particular emphasis is on evolutionary aspects: growth, domination or just survival, especially in crisis environments.
Impacts can be seen in investment strategies based on MBF that have been successfully employed in large scale funds, since 2008, by Swiss and German corporate investors (AllMountain Capital AG and Deutsche Bank). These strategies have demonstrated high rates of return combined with relatively low volatility, coping exceptionally well with one of the most severe financial crises in recent history.
Research of Professor Brigo in the areas of credit risk, pricing models for the valuation of counterparty risk, and the development of accurate calibration methods of various credit risk models has generated significant impact both on public policy and on practitioners and professional services. His models were implemented and his calibration methods adopted in the financial industry. The significance attached to his work by the industry also resulted in a collaboration with the German regulator (BAFIN). Further evidence of his impact can be found in the fact that a Court of Law based its analysis in a financial intermediation case on Brigo's research.
The largest investment banks in London each have thousands of servers largely devoted to Monte Carlo simulations, and to quantify their risks and satisfy regulatory demands they need to be able to calculate huge numbers of sensitivities (defined below) known collectively as "Greeks". An adjoint technique developed by Professor Mike Giles in 2006 greatly reduced the computational complexity of these calculations. The technique is used extensively by Credit Suisse and other major banks, reducing their computing costs and energy consumption. It has also led to the Numerical Algorithms Group developing new software to support the banks in exploiting this new adjoint approach to computing sensitivities.
The Computational Optimization Group (COG) in the Department of Computing produced new models, algorithms, and approximations for supporting confident decision-making under uncertainty — when computational alternatives are scarce or unavailable. The impact of this research is exemplified by the following:
Spatial decomposition methods have been extended to apply to spatial, scale, and temporal domains as a result of work at the Numerical and Applied Mathematics Research Unit (NAMU) at the University of Greenwich. This work has led to a numerical framework for tackling many nonlinear problems which have been key bottlenecks in software design and scientific computing. The work has benefitted the welding industry in the UK because these concepts are now embedded, with parallel computing, in the industry's modern welding design process software.
Research of Tiziana Di Matteo on network-based filtering techniques has lead to powerful new tools for the characterization of dependencies in large complex data sets. This has generated impact on practitioners and professional services in the biotechnology industry and with financial regulators. The Swiss biotechnology firm THERAMetrics Holding AG has used Di Matteo's techniques for developing a quantitative methodology to validate their knowledge based research platform for drug repositioning research. Within a consultancy project awarded to her by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the information filtering techniques where used to provided advice on methodological correctness of Econophysics techniques applied to a market cleanliness event study.
Research by Oxford econometricians provided the basis for innovative new methods for predicting periods of potential financial stress and providing protection for investors against extreme events. During periods of financial stress, equity funds tend to sharply lose value while volatility tends to increase. Adding some long volatility exposure to a standard equity portfolio can significantly improve the tail behaviour of a portfolio. However, it is expensive to continually hold volatility contracts due to the volatility risk premium. Researchers at Man Group have applied the Oxford research to create new strategies to protect against tail risk and these are incorporated in their Tail Protect fund launched in October 2009.
Research by Cathcart, McNeil (both Maxwell Institute) and Morrison (Barrie & Hibbert) during the period 2008-2012 has developed a methodology based on least squares Monte Carlo to value complex insurance liabilities and manage their risks. This methodology has been adopted by Barrie & Hibbert (B&H, part of Moody's Analytics) and has enabled the company to develop an internationally leading proposition for valuing insurance products. This has generated £2.5M in revenue since 2011, through implementation in 5 new products and use in 12 new consulting projects.
As part of our commitment to public sociology (see REF3a), we have prioritised making Edinburgh sociological research on financial crises available to wider audiences: financial practitioners, policy makers and interested members of the general public. This has been primarily via six essays by Donald MacKenzie in the London Review of Books (LRB) and two invited articles in the Financial Times, listed in section 5.3. The impact of this research is in enhancing cultural understanding of finance and contributing to critical public debate. Evidence of its significance and reach includes: (a) public recognition (eg Prospect magazine naming MacKenzie amongst the 25 intellectuals with most impact on the "public conversation" about the financial crisis); (b) articles by others in prominent sources (the Financial Times and Economist) drawing on his work; (c) use of the Edinburgh University research in a major US corporate lawsuit; (d) reprints of the LRB articles eg in French and German public affairs magazines, in the booklets accompanying a Swedish exhibition and a Belgian art video, and in two financial-practitioner magazines.
Research carried out by Cairns (Maxwell Institute), Blake (Cass Business School) and Dowd (Nottingham, now Durham) in 2006 produced the `CBD' model for predicting future life expectancy. The CBD model and its extensions developed in 2009 by Cairns and collaborators have had a major impact on pensions and life industry risk management practices: multinational financial institutions [text removed for publication] and other stakeholders have relied on the CBD model to risk assess, price and execute financial deals [text removed for publication] since 2010. CBD is also used by risk management consultants to advise clients, is embedded in both open-source and commercial software, and is used by the UK's Pension Protection Fund to measure and manage longevity risk.