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The work of Professor Ferguson and colleagues at Imperial College on modelling the effect of different intervention measures on the spread and health impact of a new influenza pandemic has substantially shaped UK and international public policy-making over the last 7 years. Prior to 2009, this work shaped UK policy on antiviral and pre-pandemic vaccine stockpiling and use, and on the potential use of school closure and border restrictions during a pandemic. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, real-time research provided the first estimates of key epidemiological parameters of the new pandemic virus, demonstrating the low-to-moderate severity and lower than typical transmissibility. In the UK, US and other countries, these data informed public policy decisions to pull back from use of economically costly interventions (such as reactive school closure or antiviral prophylaxis) and focus on targeted use of vaccination as the principal pandemic mitigation measure.
Research carried out by the Health Protection and Influenza Research Group (HPIRG), Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, impacted directly on the UK Government's response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, feeding directly into policy-making decisions. The group was appointed as an official WHO Collaborating Centre for pandemic influenza in 2010 and through its related research has "reduced the economic impact on Member States for pandemic preparedness" (quote from reference 7, section 5). In 2011, it secured £7M funding from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to lead `once only' work to determine the modes of influenza transmission using a human challenge model.
Research undertaken at UCL's Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology has provided evidence about vaccination of different groups against influenza which have influenced policy and practice. In particular, our work underpins the government's ongoing policy on vaccination of healthcare workers, and is cited every year in the Chief Medical Officer's letter to healthcare workers as well as international recommendations on influenza vaccination of healthcare workers, including widespread mandatory vaccination programmes in North America. Research on influenza and acute cardiovascular events has informed US recommendations for prevention of stroke through vaccination. Recent work also informed the decision in the UK to extend regular influenza vaccination to children.
Researchers in the Epidemiology Group at the University of Warwick have an international reputation for high-quality mathematical modelling of human infectious diseases, with particular emphasis on population heterogeneity and variability. Such formulations and insights are an important component of predictive modelling performed by Public Health England (PHE), and are helping to shape national policy for a range of vaccine-preventable infections.
The Warwick group was instrumental in providing a range of real-time analyses and advice to UK authorities during the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) pandemic, acknowledged by the Department of Health (DoH) to be "fundamental to the construction of the UK's pandemic response" and making an important contribution to the overall programme which "led to the saving of many hundreds of millions of pounds of taxpayers money, while greatly increasing the health of the Nation". Modelling and analysis carried out at Warwick continue to provide insight into the control and containment of future pandemics and are considered "essential in determining UK pandemic policy".
Researchers in the University of Cambridge's Department of Zoology have developed a new methodology to analyse pathogen evolution. This `antigenic cartography' has led to the group becoming integrally involved in the World Health Organisation (WHO) influenza vaccine strain selection process, and has directly contributed to more accurate and appropriate flu vaccine design, with associated international impacts on disease prevention and public health (the flu vaccine is given to ~350 million people annually). The research has directly affected how public health professionals conduct disease surveillance and sampling.
Research from the University of Oxford has played a major role in the development of effective vaccines to combat the urgent worldwide problem of influenza. This methodology, licensed to AstraZeneca, has been used to prepare the currently licensed live attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist. Since its introduction in 2006 it is estimated that FluMist or other vaccines produced using reverse genetics have saved the lives of thousands of people worldwide who would otherwise have died from flu and its complications. FluMist has generated close to $1 billion income for the manufacturers (MedImmune, owned by AstraZeneca).
Pioneering interdisciplinary research at the Royal Veterinary College (RVC) has enabled governments internationally and global health authorities to respond swiftly to the outbreak of a disease that causes huge economic losses, threatens the livelihoods of vulnerable populations in the developing world and endangers human lives. Supported by proactive dissemination, it has shaped the control policies and risk management strategies of the United Nations and governments across Asia, Africa and Europe, as well as a national contingency plan for the UK. And it has demonstrated that costly vaccination campaigns and mass culling programmes can be avoided in efforts to bring the disease under control.
Research by the Community and Health Research Unit (CaHRU) has had broad international and national impact on community-based prevention, influencing influenza and pneumococcal vaccination policy and practice in the UK, North America and Australia, and impacting on general practitioner and primary healthcare. This has led to improvements in influenza vaccination in the elderly aged 65 years and over as well as younger people aged two years and over at risk of influenza and pneumonia, in Lincolnshire, UK and internationally via policy, education and guidance since 1999.
The research has increased public and practitioner awareness of the link between influenza and cardiovascular disease and the potential for influenza vaccination to prevent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke. It has affected international vaccination policy; through the findings being incorporated into national guidance for general practices and e-learning on how to improve UK influenza vaccination rates. Overall there has been a substantial take-up of our findings and recommendations.
Research by G Favato of Kingston University established that it is cost-effective to vaccinate males against the HPV virus, overturning previous studies that had suggested such vaccination was not cost-effective.
This research was presented to the Italian Agency for Drug Approval (AIFA). As a result, AIFA changed its vaccination policy for HPV, removing its previous restriction of vaccination to females only and approving vaccination also for males.
The Italian regions of Emilia-Romagna and Sicily have now begun voluntary vaccination programmes for males under 26, with economic benefits amounting to €98.9 million. In addition, Emilia-Romagna has introduced a vaccination programme for HIV-infected males under 26, providing health benefits for a high-risk sub-population.