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The global financial crisis of 2008 required policy makers to restructure radically banking systems through re-capitalization, essentially injecting capital to the banks. The Unit's research has shown that recapitalization policy has the potential to impose significant costs on the wider economy and on the banking system in particular. This research brings this trade-off to the attention of policy-makers at central banks who will now be better informed about the nature of the associated costs. . Our research outputs enabled some of these policy-makers to decide at which point on the trade-off they might wish to locate their policy choices.
Since the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States, a key issue for central banks has been the extent to which they should use monetary policy, along with macroprudential tools, to promote financial stability. University of Manchester (UoM) research has developed small theoretical models, and more detailed quantitative macroeconomic models, to help address this issue. This analytical work has helped to: firstly, influence the policies and operations of several major central banks (Brazil, Turkey and Morocco); and secondly, fuel the debate about global reform of bank regulation in international forums, such as the Financial Stability Board, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and annual meetings of central banks from Latin America. Impact has been achieved through presentations to these forums, alongside discussions with senior policymakers from other countries.
Research by the School's Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) on the monetary transmission mechanism has been influential in improving the design, implementation and effectiveness of the monetary policies of a number of central banks, including the Bank of England, Banque de France and the European Central Bank. The research has influenced changes in the way that official monetary aggregates are measured so as to capture the impact of non-bank financial institutions on the money supply and credit availability, and in better understanding of how monetary policy affects different interest rates. This in turn has allowed for improved control by central banks of their policy targets, and for better understanding of the effects of their monetary policies on economic activity and inflation.
The risk of a systemic crisis and the inability of depositors to monitor how banks are governed are long-standing public policy concerns. Since joining Bangor University in 2008 Professor Klaus Schaeck and collaborators from central banks and international financial organisations have worked to inform the global policy debate on these issues. Specifically, how varying competitive conditions, corporate governance structures and regulatory innovations incentivise the development of safer and sounder banking systems. Notable impacts of Schaeck's research since 2008 include: the use by central banks of his new methodology to gauge banking sector competition; priority change in the policy debate over the structure of bank boards and, in particular, the influence of female executives; and finally heightened policy awareness of the unintended consequences of regulations imposed on troubled or bailed-out banks.
The making of monetary policy requires accurate forecasts of key monetary variables, and in particular of the inflation rate. Research conducted by Charemza has led to the development of new methods of forecasting inflation. The relevant information is summarised in a Monetary Policy Indicator (MPI) that can be used to identify the optimal timing of active monetary policy. Since June 2006, the MPI has been applied by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of Poland in the process of deciding on the levels of monetary instruments (interest rates and reserve levels). The use of these methods has contributed to Poland's economic stability and helped to ensure unprecedented growth of the Polish economy in the last decade.
The development and introduction of a new international regulatory framework for banking and financial markets (known as Basel III) following the 2007/8 financial crisis has been challenging for all parties. Murinde's research has helped shape the response to Basel III by banking and stock market regulators in Africa. In particular, this work has enhanced the competitiveness of the financial services sector underpinned the articulation of the African voice on the transition to Basel III as expressed at the G20 Summit in Seoul in 2010; and directly enhanced the skills and knowledge of stock exchange regulators. As a result of this impact, the African Development Bank invited Murinde to contribute directly to knowledge and capacity building in Africa, and he was subsequently appointed the first Director of the African Development Institute at the African Development Bank in May 2011, on a three-year secondment from the University of Birmingham.
Monetary policy and its effect on the wider economy are important for South Africa's objective of achieving both high economic growth and low inflation — which are deemed to contribute to the government's and electorate's greater objectives of reducing poverty and creating employment. The central bank (South African Reserve Bank, SARB) and the National Treasury have responsibility for both monetary policy and the oversight of the financial sector. Laurence Harris's research on the links between monetary policy, financial sector development, and their connection with the financing and investment decisions made by businesses has led both institutions to seek and act on his advice.
Research carried out at the University of Southampton into banking, economic growth and development has made Professor Richard Werner a trusted source of advice for economic policy-makers at the highest level, for example for the Financial Services Authority, the Independent Banking Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England. Through articles, books and many media contributions, he has promoted a greater public understanding of economics and the financial crisis. His credit creation analysis has also been adopted by two investment funds in their portfolio management, leading to financial gains for investors, outperforming the FTSE100.
Leyshon and French's research on the geography of UK bank and building society branch closures influenced the decision by the Financial Inclusion Taskforce to target 25 under-served local authority areas for additional support from the government's £42m Growth Fund between 2008 and 2011. The Growth Fund, which is targeted at Credit Unions, Community Development Financial Institutions and other, not-for-profit `third sector' lenders, enables financially excluded households to access credit on more affordable terms.