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Research on extreme value methods by Heffernan and Tawn at Lancaster, which proved critical in determining the conclusions of the High Court's investigation of the sinking of the M.V. Derbyshire, also identified that design standards for the strength of hatch covers of ocean-going carriers (bulk carriers, ore carriers and combination carriers) needed to be increased by 35%. This new level was set as a worldwide mandatory standard in 2004. During the REF census period this change has impacted on the design of 1720 new carriers and strengthening for the 5830 in service. There have been no sinkings of ocean-going bulk carriers since the new design standards were introduced in 2004, whereas on past evidence over 100 such sinkings of ocean-going bulk carriers would have been expected in the REF census period.
The impact arises from the study of extreme ocean waves and their interaction with marine structures. It is relevant to the offshore, shipping, coastal and marine renewables industries and has been both economic and regulatory, involving:
(a) The establishment of revised guidelines for the design of new structures / vessels.
(b) Enhancing best practice, both from an economic and a safety perspective.
(c) Reducing the uncertainty in critical design issues, thereby improving overall reliability.
(d) Enabling "end-of-life" extensions for existing structures.
(e) Facilitating the effective decommissioning of redundant structures.
(f) Contributing to the development of new industrial R&D equipment, thereby assisting specialist UK manufacturers to secure international orders.
This case study is based on impact on the Flood Warning Service of the Environment Agency. A new coastal flooding forecasting system combines forecasts of weather and sea conditions with modelling of wave transformation close to the coast, and from this information, using the outcomes of research at University of Liverpool between 1998 and 2005, predicts the wave overtopping of seawalls. The new system allows wind and wave conditions to be incorporated into coastal flooding predictions, improving on the previous methodology that was largely based on sea level. The Liverpool contribution to the system specifically improves on the conservatism of the previous overtopping prediction, leading to a model which issues less false alerts. Versions of the system are now in operation on the North East coast of England, and around the Firths or Forth and Tay, and over 200 alerts have been issued from the North East system since 2008.
Research by Rowan and ERG colleagues Black, Bragg, Cutler, Duck has addressed the science and policy challenges faced by statutory authorities meeting their duty to implement the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000. Assessing the sensitivity of aquatic systems to physical, chemical and biological pressures is the central theme, and through a series of commissioned projects funded by UK environment and conservation agencies, the research has:
Over one quarter of the estimated 886 million undernourished people in the world live in sub-Saharan Africa and their lives and livelihoods depend critically on rain-fed agriculture. However this region has lacked the equipment and the infrastructure to monitor rainfall. Over the past 20 years, the Unit's TAMSAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite Data and Ground-Based Observations) research group has developed a reliable and robust means for monitoring rainfall, appropriate for use in Africa. In addition, the Unit pioneered the use of such data to predict crop yields over large areas. TAMSAT data and methods are now used in food security (to anticipate drought and predict crop and livestock yields); in health planning (to predict outbreaks of rain-promoted diseases such as malaria); in aid (to guide the allocation and distribution of relief food and water); and in economic planning (to plan mitigation activities and investment in infrastructure). The Unit's programme of development and validation has extended the method to all of Africa, at all times of year. Our work with national meteorological services in Africa has helped them to build their own capabilities and to both contribute to TAMSAT and exploit it. The data provided by TAMSAT has had major impact in increasing the resilience of African populations to weather and climate, saving and improving the quality of lives, and strengthening economies in developing nations.
Improved flood risk modelling based on the application of research led by Keith Beven at Lancaster has had global impacts in improved flood defence policies and planning by governments, and in assisting insurers with their underwriting (for example in pricing and policy decisions). The benefits are not just financial — they are human too: improved understanding of flood risk and resilience protects life and assets, and has a positive impact on the well-being of many of those at risk. These impacts are at the centre of flood risk management across the UK, are being applied in nine other European countries, and now becoming the methods of choice for flood mapping in developing countries such as Thailand.
Statistical modelling of storms by Professor David Stephenson and co-workers in the mathematics institute at the U. of Exeter, has improved the understanding and thereby the pricing of insurance risk due to European windstorms and tropical cyclones. Temporal clustering in these catastrophic natural hazards has been quantified using novel process-based statistical models, which have then been implemented by industry to improve insurance pricing, e.g. on the integrated financial platform used by Willis actuaries to provide a more reliable view of risk as required by EU solvency 2 regulation. This research has also raised awareness in the industry about storm clustering, and has stimulated significant improvements in the main vendor catastrophe models, which are the main tools used by insurance companies to price European windstorm insurance.