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Research of Professor Brigo in the areas of credit risk, pricing models for the valuation of counterparty risk, and the development of accurate calibration methods of various credit risk models has generated significant impact both on public policy and on practitioners and professional services. His models were implemented and his calibration methods adopted in the financial industry. The significance attached to his work by the industry also resulted in a collaboration with the German regulator (BAFIN). Further evidence of his impact can be found in the fact that a Court of Law based its analysis in a financial intermediation case on Brigo's research.
Research on risk assessment of SMEs conducted at the University of Edinburgh Business School (2005-current) in conjunction with the international credit industry has improved understanding of SME behaviour with a view to assisting lending bodies in their decision-making. It has led to refinements in the process of developing commercial credit risk models by providing valuable additional details to enhance existing models. It has developed methodologies now used by some of the leading lenders [text removed for publication] to cut the cost of providing credit, thereby making more credit available to SMEs. The reach of the work has extended across 349 credit practitioners from 38 countries.
Research carried out by members of the Credit Research Centre (CRC) at the University of Edinburgh has changed the way that credit risk modelling teams in major multinational retail banks think about and model the probability that an applicant will default on a loan. Such models are used monthly to assess the risk associated with most of the 58 million credit cards in the UK and hundreds of millions of credit cards elsewhere in the world. The research has also changed the way banks model a crucial parameter in the amount of capital they have to hold to comply with international regulations, and has allayed their concerns about estimating models based on only samples of previously accepted applicants.
Research carried out at the University of Southampton into banking, economic growth and development has made Professor Richard Werner a trusted source of advice for economic policy-makers at the highest level, for example for the Financial Services Authority, the Independent Banking Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England. Through articles, books and many media contributions, he has promoted a greater public understanding of economics and the financial crisis. His credit creation analysis has also been adopted by two investment funds in their portfolio management, leading to financial gains for investors, outperforming the FTSE100.
Research by Reimer Kühn (RK) and collaborators has produced a framework to study and quantify the influence of interactions on risk in complex systems, including default risk in economy-wide networks of financial exposures. This work has had impact on practitioners and professional services dealing with financial risk, including research groups at central banks, who — partly in response to the recent financial crisis — have adopted such network oriented approaches to analyse and quantify systemic risk. The Financial Stability Division at the Bank of England has, for instance, developed refined versions of the network-oriented models proposed by Kühn and collaborators to specifically assess risk in the British banking system.
The research group investigated UK borrowers' payment protection insurance (PPI) decision making using randomised-groups experiments and a novel cognitive process-tracing methodology. This contributed to the design and interpretation of a consumer survey, a key element of the Office of Fair Trading's 2006 market study of PPI, via the involvement of the principal investigator as consultant. The survey played a major role in the referral of PPI to the competition commission and subsequent major changes implemented by the FSA to the regulation of the PPI market and associated consumer support. This has been of direct benefit to millions of UK borrowers and has also had a major impact on the competitiveness of the UK personal insurance market.
Research at the University of Manchester (UoM) has developed new approaches, methods and algorithms to improve the statistical confidentiality practices of data stewardship organisations (DSOs), such as the UK's Office for National Statistics. The research and its products have had significant impacts on data dissemination practice, both in the UK and internationally, and have been adopted by national statistical agencies, government departments and private companies. The primary beneficiaries of this work are DSOs, who are able to both disseminate useful data products, and protect respondent confidentiality more effectively. Secondary beneficiaries are respondents, whose confidentiality is better protected, and the research community, as without `gold standard' disclosure risk analysis, data holders can be overcautious.
RVC's Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health team (VEEPH) has been at the forefront of applying and evaluating new techniques for modelling disease risk, for policy and decision makers to use in surveillance and control of animal and zoonotic infections. Application of their recommendations, including European `Commission Decision' legislation, is contributing to ensuring that Europe remains free from African swine fever (ASF). The status of FAO Reference Centre in Veterinary Epidemiology, awarded by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation in 2012, recognises the RVC as a centre of excellence in this field and reinforces its role in guiding policies relating to animal health.
Aston Business School has changed business activities of major reinsurance firms and awareness and understandings in the global reinsurance industry. It has done so by producing an integrated suite of strategy tools to support strategic positioning, relationship management and risk analysis and trading. Reinsurance firms have adopted these tools in their internal practices, for example, to increase premium income from target clients. The implementation of these tools was facilitated through 58 tailored reports to firms worldwide, 22 commissioned company-specific strategy workshops, targeted distribution of our industry reports, invited presentations at prestigious events, and training activities for reinsurance professionals.
The Cambridge-led Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC) is a global consortium involving individual-participant data on 2.5 million participants from 130 cohort studies. The ERFC has helped optimise approaches to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment by: 1) quantifying the incremental predictive value provided by assessment of risk factors 2) evaluating the independence of associations between risk factors and CVD and 3) addressing uncertainties related to the implementation of screening. ERFC publications on lipids, lipoproteins, and inflammation biomarkers have been cited by 9 guidelines published since 2010, including those of the European Society of Cardiology and the American Heart Association.