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Protecting London from the threat of flooding is of prime importance to the nation. Work in the Unit on regional sea-level rise and on the effect of storm surges was used in the Environment Agency's Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) plan to assess potential change in risk. The Unit's work estimated a very unlikely maximum rise in sea level of 2.7m by 2100, considerably lower than the previous worst-case scenario of 4.2m. It confirmed that 90 centimetres was the figure that should be used for developing the plan. TE2100 concluded that a second Thames Barrier (estimated cost £10-20 billion at today's prices) would not be needed not by 2030, but may be needed by 2070. Our results have been used to define procedures for the monitoring of regional sea and Thames water levels over the next few decades, and to review decision-making procedures to ensure that the risk of flooding in London is kept within acceptable levels, while avoiding unnecessary costs
Data generated by sensors on-board satellites orbiting the Earth have become extremely important to businesses and public sector organisations. They are the essential ingredient in satellite-enabled consumer services, from GoogleEarth to disaster management, insurance and agriculture. The Earth Observation Science group at Leicester has played a leading role in the transfer of cutting-edge Earth Observation techniques and know-how to the private and public sectors, enabling more businesses to use the technology for commercial gain. Leicester experience in technology translation led to its invited contribution to the UK space industry-led report to government, an Innovation and Growth Strategy for Space.
Research carried out at the University of Leeds has led to the development of a system for predicting severe air turbulence at airports and elsewhere. The research modelled highly localised `rotor streaming' turbulence which is too small-scale to predict using today's numerical weather prediction models. The Met Office now uses the highly efficient 3DVOM computer prediction model, based on the Leeds research, to improve its operational weather forecasting, especially for providing warnings of `gustiness' to the public and airports and to highlight risks of overturning of high-sided vehicles. In addition, the model is used by forecasters to predict dangerous turbulence at Mount Pleasant Airport in the Falkland Islands, and has led to the prevention of around five flight diversions per year at an estimated cost saving of £1.25 million.
Exeter's Centre for Energy and the Environment has created novel probabilistic weather files for 50 locations across the UK, consisting of hourly weather conditions over a year, which have been used by the construction industry to test resilience of building designs to climate change. They have already had significant economic impact through their use in more than £3bn worth of infrastructure projects, for example, Great Ormond Street Hospital, Leeds Arena, and the Zero Carbon Passivhaus School. The weather files are widely available to professionals and endorsed by internationally leading building simulation software providers such as Integrated Environmental Solutions.
Human activity leads to the emission of many greenhouse gases that differ from carbon dioxide (CO2) in their ability to cause climate change. International climate policy requires the use of an "exchange rate" to place emissions of such gases on a "CO2-equivalent" scale. These exchange rates are calculated using "climate emission metrics" (hereafter "metrics") which enable the comparison of the climate effect of the emission of a given gas with emissions of CO2. Research in the Unit has contributed directly to (i) the calculation of inputs required for such metrics, (ii) the compilation of listings of the effects for a large number of gases and (iii) the consideration of alternative metric formulations. During the assessment period this work has been used in the implementation of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and in decisions and discussions (which began in 2005) on the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period (2013-2020), as well to intergovernmental debate on aspects of the use of metrics in climate agreements.
A novel approach to climate science has resulted in over 260,000 members of the public worldwide choosing to engage in a climate modelling project. By contributing resources that require their time and attention, they have become `citizen scientists'. The project has resulted in greater interest, understanding and engagement with climate science by participants; wider public discussion of climate science; and influence on policy and practice. Over 3000 people, including professionals in developing countries, have benefitted through education and training. The project has also advanced the development and awareness of `volunteer computing'.
Urban greenspace cools cities and reduces rainfall runoff but these effects have been difficult to quantify. Ennos's research is the first to give realistic figures for the contribution of greenspace and assess its potential to climate-proof cities. Key research findings have furthered the concept of green infrastructure, influenced local and national planning policy [text removed for publication]. Novel mapping tools developed by Ennos have had international impact, including use in the city master plan for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Community forests have altered their planting practises as a result of Ennos's research findings.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
Over one quarter of the estimated 886 million undernourished people in the world live in sub-Saharan Africa and their lives and livelihoods depend critically on rain-fed agriculture. However this region has lacked the equipment and the infrastructure to monitor rainfall. Over the past 20 years, the Unit's TAMSAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite Data and Ground-Based Observations) research group has developed a reliable and robust means for monitoring rainfall, appropriate for use in Africa. In addition, the Unit pioneered the use of such data to predict crop yields over large areas. TAMSAT data and methods are now used in food security (to anticipate drought and predict crop and livestock yields); in health planning (to predict outbreaks of rain-promoted diseases such as malaria); in aid (to guide the allocation and distribution of relief food and water); and in economic planning (to plan mitigation activities and investment in infrastructure). The Unit's programme of development and validation has extended the method to all of Africa, at all times of year. Our work with national meteorological services in Africa has helped them to build their own capabilities and to both contribute to TAMSAT and exploit it. The data provided by TAMSAT has had major impact in increasing the resilience of African populations to weather and climate, saving and improving the quality of lives, and strengthening economies in developing nations.
Climate change is one of the most critical challenges facing modern society and there is a paramount requirement for government policy informed by science, and scientifically credible public information. Observations of sea surface temperatures, and their corroboration, are a focus for governments — climate change mitigation is economically important in a warming world. This UoA has provided the science leadership for a major satellite programme, the ATSRs, specifically designed to provide high-quality sea temperature data. Results from our research reduce uncertainties on global temperature change with unexpectedly wide benefits also to operational oceanography and weather forecasting. Public visibility through the Science Museum is also high.