The work of Professor Ferguson and colleagues at Imperial College on
modelling the effect of
different intervention measures on the spread and health impact of a new
influenza pandemic has
substantially shaped UK and international public policy-making over the
last 7 years. Prior to 2009,
this work shaped UK policy on antiviral and pre-pandemic vaccine
stockpiling and use, and on the
potential use of school closure and border restrictions during a pandemic.
During the 2009 H1N1
pandemic, real-time research provided the first estimates of key
epidemiological parameters of the
new pandemic virus, demonstrating the low-to-moderate severity and lower
transmissibility. In the UK, US and other countries, these data informed
public policy decisions to
pull back from use of economically costly interventions (such as reactive
school closure or antiviral
prophylaxis) and focus on targeted use of vaccination as the principal
Professor Spagat's ground-breaking research on civilian conflict
casualties has had a demonstrable impact on the practices of NATO, the
British military and humanitarian organisations operating in Afghanistan.
The output from the research has been used to reduce the civilian
casualties arising from military actions in Afghanistan.
This research has directly impacted the development of resources to
enhance professional practice and had an influence on
professional standards guidelines or training in these
organisations. There are numerous examples of citations in a public
discussion, consultation document or judgement and also of citation
by journalists, broadcasters or social media. In Section 5 we
provide documented evidence of influence on guidelines, legislation,
regulation, policy or standards on NATO, the British military and
humanitarian agencies in the form of an authorised statement and a podcast
made by Lieutenant Colonel Ewan Cameron, a senior medic in the British
In the present document we highlight one particular underpinning study
(reference 1 of Section 3) that introduced the Dirty War Index (DWI).
Joint follow-up work with Cameron (reference 2) applied the DWI concept to
create the Civilian Battle Damage Assessment Ratio (CBDAR). Cameron then
brought this construct to the field where NATO forces and humanitarian
organizations used it to minimize the civilian impact of military and
humanitarian operations in Afghanistan (sections 4 and 5). The DWI
research agenda, including further applications (references 3, 4 and 5),
has generated substantial public discussion by journalists and
broadcasters (Section 4).
Pioneering interdisciplinary research at the Royal Veterinary College
(RVC) has enabled governments internationally and global health
authorities to respond swiftly to the outbreak of a disease that causes
huge economic losses, threatens the livelihoods of vulnerable populations
in the developing world and endangers human lives. Supported by proactive
dissemination, it has shaped the control policies and risk management
strategies of the United Nations and governments across Asia, Africa and
Europe, as well as a national contingency plan for the UK. And it has
demonstrated that costly vaccination campaigns and mass culling programmes
can be avoided in efforts to bring the disease under control.
Impact: Influencing industry, governmental policy, insurance
industry policy and public
Significance: By establishing the actual risks posed by specific
carbon nanotubes (CNT), UK
Health and Safety Executive (HSE) guidance and workplace guidance and
Beneficiaries: CNT industry and users, governments and
policy-makers, the HSE and its
international equivalents, the public.
Attribution: Donaldson and colleagues (UoE) published the first
demonstrations of potential CNT
Reach: Global media coverage, encompassing UK, Europe, USA and
India. Results considered by
national and international policy-making bodies, for example, House of
Lords Science and
Technology committee, US National Institute for Occupational Safety and
The human influenza A (H5N1) infection emerged in China in 2003 and
quickly spread throughout Asia, killing more than half of those infected.
Researchers at the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam
(OUCRU) provided rapid information to the World Health Organization (WHO)
on the pathological and clinical features of H5N1 infection in humans, as
it emerged in Vietnam. The WHO used this front line information to inform
recommendations for the investigation, diagnosis, management, and
treatment of H5N1 globally, ultimately reducing mortality by up to 19%.
Research conducted by LSHTM into how governments and international
organisations are preparing for an influenza pandemic has made an
important contribution towards efforts to avoid the risks of up to 150m
deaths anticipated by WHO in the event of such a pandemic. Governments,
including the UK, and global institutions, have made policy changes and
resource allocation decisions directly as a result of this research and
Impact: Policy. Developed a humane culling method for large
numbers of poultry in preparation
for an outbreak of a notifiable disease such as avian flu (Highly
Pathogenic Avian Influenza, HPAI),
which was adopted by Defra.
Significance: In the event of a major disease outbreak, the large
scale culling of infected birds
would need to be accomplished in humane and cost-effective way.
Beneficiaries: Disease control authorities in all UK Government
domains (England & Wales,
Scotland, Northern Ireland) — more effective statutory controls; poultry
production industries —
reduced financial losses in case of outbreaks; the wider public — reduced
Attribution: Prof. Sparks, Dr. Sandilands (SRUC).
Reach: All UK animal health related Government domains.