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The work of Professor Ferguson and colleagues at Imperial College on modelling the effect of different intervention measures on the spread and health impact of a new influenza pandemic has substantially shaped UK and international public policy-making over the last 7 years. Prior to 2009, this work shaped UK policy on antiviral and pre-pandemic vaccine stockpiling and use, and on the potential use of school closure and border restrictions during a pandemic. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, real-time research provided the first estimates of key epidemiological parameters of the new pandemic virus, demonstrating the low-to-moderate severity and lower than typical transmissibility. In the UK, US and other countries, these data informed public policy decisions to pull back from use of economically costly interventions (such as reactive school closure or antiviral prophylaxis) and focus on targeted use of vaccination as the principal pandemic mitigation measure.
Professor Spagat's ground-breaking research on civilian conflict casualties has had a demonstrable impact on the practices of NATO, the British military and humanitarian organisations operating in Afghanistan. The output from the research has been used to reduce the civilian casualties arising from military actions in Afghanistan.
This research has directly impacted the development of resources to enhance professional practice and had an influence on professional standards guidelines or training in these organisations. There are numerous examples of citations in a public discussion, consultation document or judgement and also of citation by journalists, broadcasters or social media. In Section 5 we provide documented evidence of influence on guidelines, legislation, regulation, policy or standards on NATO, the British military and humanitarian agencies in the form of an authorised statement and a podcast made by Lieutenant Colonel Ewan Cameron, a senior medic in the British Army.
In the present document we highlight one particular underpinning study (reference 1 of Section 3) that introduced the Dirty War Index (DWI). Joint follow-up work with Cameron (reference 2) applied the DWI concept to create the Civilian Battle Damage Assessment Ratio (CBDAR). Cameron then brought this construct to the field where NATO forces and humanitarian organizations used it to minimize the civilian impact of military and humanitarian operations in Afghanistan (sections 4 and 5). The DWI research agenda, including further applications (references 3, 4 and 5), has generated substantial public discussion by journalists and broadcasters (Section 4).
Pioneering interdisciplinary research at the Royal Veterinary College (RVC) has enabled governments internationally and global health authorities to respond swiftly to the outbreak of a disease that causes huge economic losses, threatens the livelihoods of vulnerable populations in the developing world and endangers human lives. Supported by proactive dissemination, it has shaped the control policies and risk management strategies of the United Nations and governments across Asia, Africa and Europe, as well as a national contingency plan for the UK. And it has demonstrated that costly vaccination campaigns and mass culling programmes can be avoided in efforts to bring the disease under control.
Impact: Influencing industry, governmental policy, insurance industry policy and public awareness/engagement.
Significance: By establishing the actual risks posed by specific carbon nanotubes (CNT), UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) guidance and workplace guidance and industry was influenced internationally.
Beneficiaries: CNT industry and users, governments and policy-makers, the HSE and its international equivalents, the public.
Attribution: Donaldson and colleagues (UoE) published the first demonstrations of potential CNT toxicity.
Reach: Global media coverage, encompassing UK, Europe, USA and India. Results considered by national and international policy-making bodies, for example, House of Lords Science and Technology committee, US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.
The human influenza A (H5N1) infection emerged in China in 2003 and quickly spread throughout Asia, killing more than half of those infected. Researchers at the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam (OUCRU) provided rapid information to the World Health Organization (WHO) on the pathological and clinical features of H5N1 infection in humans, as it emerged in Vietnam. The WHO used this front line information to inform recommendations for the investigation, diagnosis, management, and treatment of H5N1 globally, ultimately reducing mortality by up to 19%.
Research conducted by LSHTM into how governments and international organisations are preparing for an influenza pandemic has made an important contribution towards efforts to avoid the risks of up to 150m deaths anticipated by WHO in the event of such a pandemic. Governments, including the UK, and global institutions, have made policy changes and resource allocation decisions directly as a result of this research and technical advice.
Impact: Policy. Developed a humane culling method for large numbers of poultry in preparation for an outbreak of a notifiable disease such as avian flu (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, HPAI), which was adopted by Defra.
Significance: In the event of a major disease outbreak, the large scale culling of infected birds would need to be accomplished in humane and cost-effective way.
Beneficiaries: Disease control authorities in all UK Government domains (England & Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) — more effective statutory controls; poultry production industries — reduced financial losses in case of outbreaks; the wider public — reduced welfare concerns.
Attribution: Prof. Sparks, Dr. Sandilands (SRUC).
Reach: All UK animal health related Government domains.