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This case study is an example of the impact of the ERC, which specialises in furnace and utility boiler modelling and monitoring through research in collaboration with European Industrial partners. Modelling work primarily based around the zone method and physical acid-alkali modelling has led to significant NOx reductions (50%+) for the glass melting process and this work is currently being demonstrated on the furnaces of Owens Illinois and SiseCam. The monitoring work has demonstrated that by monitoring spectral information from individual flames it is possible to reduce NOx emissions from utility power station burners by as much as 40%.
KCL researchers made fundamental contributions to software modelling standards that have changed how people define software modelling languages and, through that process, the software modelling languages used by real software developers. Software modelling is a widely used technique to help design and comprehend large systems. Software developers use the international standard language UML, and its daughter languages OCL (for data queries) and QVT (for model transformations) for modelling purposes. KCL researchers played a pivotal part in transferring research into impact on practitioners, in the form of UML2, OCL2, and QVT standards which are used internationally in many tools and by software developers world-wide.
Research at the Maxwell Institute led by Radcliffe from 1996 onwards has developed new statistical models of the response of customers to targeted marketing. Traditional customer targeting misallocates resources by failing to estimate the change in the probability of customer behaviour that results from a given marketing action. This results in three kinds of waste: treating customers for whom intervention is ineffective, failing to treat customers for whom it would be effective, and treating customers for whom the intervention is counterproductive. The new models, known as uplift models, predict the change in behaviour, allowing lower target volumes, larger changes in customer behaviour, and suppressing counterproductive interventions. Uplift modelling has been commercialised in the form of software and consulting services from 2000: it is the core of the software Portrait Uplift sold by Pitney Bowes since 2010. The research has therefore had a major economic impact on Pitney Bowes and earlier companies selling uplift software and services, and on their customers which include US Bank and phone operators T-Mobile Austria and Telenor.
Waltham's software, developed at Royal Holloway, is impacting on the oil and gas industry. For Statoil, one of the beneficiaries, it "influenced multi-million pound decisions" (Doré, Statoil Chief Geologist 2012) in their exploitation of the Gudrun oilfield, which required a £5 billion exploration investment. The software predicts the location of oil and gas reservoirs by simulating their formation by turbidity currents. The Royal Holloway software was commercialized by Midland Valley Exploration Ltd (MVE), used in consultancy work and sold to major oil-companies. Sales have generated £120k (Q3-2008 to Q2-2011) and created high-quality employment for three staff members at MVE.
Bournemouth University (BU) researchers have developed economic modelling techniques that more accurately predict the outcome of events, policies or other major economic decisions. This type of modelling allows governments and organisations to effectively plan for the positive and negative impacts arising from decisions. The technique was used to inform estimates of the value of the 2012 Olympic Games and subsequent tourism legacy; to provide the evidence base for VisitScotland naming 2013 the `Year of Natural Scotland'; to inform a Parliamentary debate on music tourism and establish greater representation of music in VisitBritain marketing material; and to inform the Government of Gibraltar of the impact of changes, such as the benefits of cross-border activity.
A dedicated specialist mathematical modelling unit in the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, FL, USA, was set up — the Integrated Mathematical Oncology Unit (IMO) — through the movement of three staff with expertise in cancer modelling from the UoA's Mathematical Biology (MB) research group. Clinical practice has been changed and patient treatment improved through the work of IMO.
Modelling by members of the MB research group and the move of a former PDRA led to Cyclacel Ltd. and AstraZeneca obtaining a better understanding of the link between drug-dose and drug-efficacy in a class of cell-cycle-specific anti-tumour drugs called Aurora kinase inhibitors and has led to enhanced business performance.
Fluid modelling approaches devised by the Materials and Engineering Research Institute's (MERI's) materials and fluid flow modelling group have impacted on industrial partners, research professionals and outreach recipients. This case study focuses on economic impacts arising from improved understanding which this modelling work has given of commercial products and processes. These include: metal particulate decontamination methods developed by the UK small company Fluid Maintenance Solutions; liquid crystal devices (LCDs) manufactured by the UK SME ZBD Displays; and an ink-droplet dispenser module originally invented at the multinational Kodak. Additionally, the modelling group's computer simulation algorithms have been adopted by industrial research professionals and made available via STFC Daresbury's internationally distributed software package DL_MESO. Finally, the group has developed, presented and disseminated simulation-based materials and visualisations at major public understanding of science (PUS) events.
Acute stroke services in the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust have been reorganised using research on modelling stroke patient pathways through hospital, social and community services carried out in CSRI at Ulster. By suitably administering thrombolysis (clot-busting drugs), a stroke patient's time in hospital, community rehabilitation and nursing homes can be reduced, so that although the treatment costs money up front, it saves in the long-term and also improves quality-of- life. The work has contributed to changing stroke patient policy in the Belfast Trust as well as enhancing patient quality-of-life. It is applicable throughout the UK and beyond.
From 1995 Professor Munjiza's research at QMUL has led to the development of a series of algorithms which can predict the movement and relationship between objects. These algorithms have been commercialised by a range of international engineering and software companies including Orica, the world's leading blasting systems provider (via their MBM software package), and the software modelling company, Dassault Systems (via their Abaqus software). Through these commercialisation routes Munjiza's work has generated significant economic impact which is global in nature. For example, his predictive algorithms have enabled safer, more productive blast mining for Orica's clients — in one mine alone, software based on Munjiza's modelling approach has meant a 10% increase in productivity, a 7% reduction in costs and an annual saving of $2.8 million. It has also been used in Dassault Systems' Abaqus modelling software, which is the world's leading generic simulation software used to solve a wide variety of industrial problems across the defence, automobile, construction, aerospace and chemicals sectors with associated economic impact.
Researchers in the Epidemiology Group at the University of Warwick have an international reputation for high-quality mathematical modelling of human infectious diseases, with particular emphasis on population heterogeneity and variability. Such formulations and insights are an important component of predictive modelling performed by Public Health England (PHE), and are helping to shape national policy for a range of vaccine-preventable infections.
The Warwick group was instrumental in providing a range of real-time analyses and advice to UK authorities during the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) pandemic, acknowledged by the Department of Health (DoH) to be "fundamental to the construction of the UK's pandemic response" and making an important contribution to the overall programme which "led to the saving of many hundreds of millions of pounds of taxpayers money, while greatly increasing the health of the Nation". Modelling and analysis carried out at Warwick continue to provide insight into the control and containment of future pandemics and are considered "essential in determining UK pandemic policy".