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Wildfire was barely recognised as a significant hazard in the UK prior to University of Manchester (UoM) research, that significantly changed stakeholders' and national policy-makers' awareness. This work on mapping and forecasting moorland wildfire risk has informed the Cabinet Office, and has demonstrated clear impact on fire preparedness planning in the Peak District National Park (where it is estimated that a large fire is potentially avoided each year). Following an ESRC-NERC seminar series (FIRES), the England and Wales Wildfire Forum (EWWF) was established, with EWWF persuading Government to further amend national policy on wildfire. This impact is ongoing, with DEFRA including wildfire in its `National Adaptation Programme', and the Cabinet Office recently including wildfire within the `National Risk Assessment' framework.
This case study concerns research in the fields of fire prevention and community safety. A novel causal factor model of accidental dwelling fire risk was developed and incorporated into a geographical information system for fire prevention management, which has been used by Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service (MF&RS) to support delivery of fire prevention activities within the region since 2010.
In addition, a novel customer segmentation approach was developed to provide an enhanced understanding of at-risk social groups in terms of combined fire risk, health risk, social care risk, and crime risk. This formed the basis for further analysis of causal factors within the same geographical area, enabling the deployment of yet more accurate targeting of fire prevention resources.
The impact of the research has been the adoption of the approach as a form of best practice to improve targeting of fire prevention activities, which is a contributing factor to the observed reduction in fire incidence. This was associated with a reduction in accidental dwelling fires by approximately 12% (163 incidents) observed across Merseyside between 2009/10 and 2012/13.
Research by Reimer Kühn (RK) and collaborators has produced a framework to study and quantify the influence of interactions on risk in complex systems, including default risk in economy-wide networks of financial exposures. This work has had impact on practitioners and professional services dealing with financial risk, including research groups at central banks, who — partly in response to the recent financial crisis — have adopted such network oriented approaches to analyse and quantify systemic risk. The Financial Stability Division at the Bank of England has, for instance, developed refined versions of the network-oriented models proposed by Kühn and collaborators to specifically assess risk in the British banking system.
RVC's Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health team (VEEPH) has been at the forefront of applying and evaluating new techniques for modelling disease risk, for policy and decision makers to use in surveillance and control of animal and zoonotic infections. Application of their recommendations, including European `Commission Decision' legislation, is contributing to ensuring that Europe remains free from African swine fever (ASF). The status of FAO Reference Centre in Veterinary Epidemiology, awarded by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation in 2012, recognises the RVC as a centre of excellence in this field and reinforces its role in guiding policies relating to animal health.
QRISK is a new algorithm which predicts an individual's risk of cardiovascular over 10 years. It was developed using the QResearch database and is in routine use across the NHS. It is included in national guidelines from NICE and the Department of Health and in the GP quality and outcomes framework. It is incorporated into > 90% of GP computer systems as well as pharmacy and secondary care systems. The web calculator has been used >500,000 times worldwide. ClinRisk Ltd was incorporated in 2008 to develop software to ensure the reliable widespread implementation of the QRISK algorithm into clinical practice.
A new method for classifying aircraft accidents and modelling the effectiveness of runway end safety areas was developed by Pitfield and colleagues at Loughborough University (1997-present) to improve global airfield safety. It was adopted by the US Airports Cooperative Research Program in 2008, validated at eight airports, and empirically applied at three, including San Francisco and Toronto (2009-2010). It resulted in: the use of enhanced aircraft accident modelling methodologies by aviation practitioners; improvements to global airport risk assessment and safety management regimes; the utilisation of empirical techniques by a commercial consultancy; and evidence being presented to the 2011 UK Public Inquiry into the proposed expansion of London Ashford Airport.
Research at the University of Manchester on the risk and cost of wildfire has altered government policy, changed firefighting practice and help conserve a National Park. Aylen's advice to the Resilience & Emergencies Division of the Department for Communities & Local Government in 2012 ahead of a submission to the Cabinet Office helped build the case for inclusion of wildfire in the Government's National Risk Assessment. His confidential briefings drew extensively on his published research on the novel topic of forecasting and costing wildfire incidents in the UK and his unpublished work on the costs of the Swinley wildfire in 2011.
QRisk is a statistical model / score derived from routine general practice (GP) records to calculate an individual's risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Queen Mary researchers formed the London arm of a multi-centre study and were particularly instrumental in testing the tool in general practice. QRisk targets treatment more effectively than other scores; it is also more equitable for disadvantaged and minority ethnic groups and cheaper per event prevented. QRisk is used in the NHS Health Checks programme covering 20 million people in England and is available at a keystroke in all GP computer systems in England. It has contributed to the identification of an additional 2.8 million people in England at high risk of CVD and their treatment with statins, reducing CVD deaths and events by an estimated 9,000 per year — about 50,000 to date since the NHS Checks programme started in 2009.
Research by Cathcart, McNeil (both Maxwell Institute) and Morrison (Barrie & Hibbert) during the period 2008-2012 has developed a methodology based on least squares Monte Carlo to value complex insurance liabilities and manage their risks. This methodology has been adopted by Barrie & Hibbert (B&H, part of Moody's Analytics) and has enabled the company to develop an internationally leading proposition for valuing insurance products. This has generated £2.5M in revenue since 2011, through implementation in 5 new products and use in 12 new consulting projects.
LSE research has become a focal point for understanding how the `crowding' effects of auditable targets can have unintended and often dysfunctional consequences for organisations and the public. The impact has two elements. First, challenging conventional wisdom and stimulating debate among stakeholders and practitioners in their search for best practice. The reach of this challenge has been global and across different fields, including accounting, risk management, public administration, social policy, education and psychiatry. Second, influencing actual changes to auditing and risk management policy and practice arising from these debates.