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UOA09-02: Climateprediction.net: engaging the public in climate science

Summary of the impact

A novel approach to climate science has resulted in over 260,000 members of the public worldwide choosing to engage in a climate modelling project. By contributing resources that require their time and attention, they have become `citizen scientists'. The project has resulted in greater interest, understanding and engagement with climate science by participants; wider public discussion of climate science; and influence on policy and practice. Over 3000 people, including professionals in developing countries, have benefitted through education and training. The project has also advanced the development and awareness of `volunteer computing'.

Submitting Institution

University of Oxford

Unit of Assessment

Physics

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography

Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty

Summary of the impact

University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO2 emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.

Submitting Institution

University of Southampton

Unit of Assessment

Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography
Medical and Health Sciences: Public Health and Health Services

9. Predicting turbulence – improved weather forecasts and £1.25 million annual savings for MoD

Summary of the impact

Research carried out at the University of Leeds has led to the development of a system for predicting severe air turbulence at airports and elsewhere. The research modelled highly localised `rotor streaming' turbulence which is too small-scale to predict using today's numerical weather prediction models. The Met Office now uses the highly efficient 3DVOM computer prediction model, based on the Leeds research, to improve its operational weather forecasting, especially for providing warnings of `gustiness' to the public and airports and to highlight risks of overturning of high-sided vehicles. In addition, the model is used by forecasters to predict dangerous turbulence at Mount Pleasant Airport in the Falkland Islands, and has led to the prevention of around five flight diversions per year at an estimated cost saving of £1.25 million.

Submitting Institution

University of Leeds

Unit of Assessment

Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Technological

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

Using land-surface satellite data to improve weather forecasts and climate predictions

Summary of the impact

Researchers in the Global Environmental Modelling and Earth Observation (GEMEO) group at Swansea University have used satellite data to improve weather forecasts and climate predictions. Using observations of the Earth's land surface from NASA's orbiting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) flying on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, Swansea University has worked directly with two leading meteorological agencies — the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) — to refine the way in which land is represented in their numerical weather prediction models. Improved weather forecasting is of clear benefit to society, facilitating day-to-day planning by the public, agriculture, commerce, utility suppliers and transport sectors, as well as preparation for extreme weather events such as floods, heat waves and droughts. The Met Office provides daily weather forecasts for the UK, while the ECMWF model is routinely used by over 30 countries for weather, aviation planning and extreme event warning. The Met Office states that the research presented here has resulted in significantly improved weather forecasts, in particular of rainfall and temperature, and more realistic climate simulations to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ECMWF reports improvement of precipitation forecast, increasing predicted summer rainfall by 7%, and its variability, which is relevant to flood and drought forecast, increased by 30%.

Submitting Institution

Swansea University

Unit of Assessment

Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience

Improving the Met Office Weather and Climate Prediction Model

Summary of the impact

Research by Professor John Thuburn and his group at the University of Exeter has made several key contributions to the formulation and development of ENDGame, the new dynamical core of the Met Office weather and climate prediction model. ENDGame has been shown to deliver improved accuracy and better computational performance at high processor counts compared to the current operational dynamical core, directly impacting the technological tools available to the Met Office. These improvements will benefit users when ENDGame becomes operational in early 2014: the economic value to the UK of the weather forecasts produced by the Met Office has been estimated to be in excess of £600M pa, while climate change projections inform policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation with huge economic implications.

Submitting Institution

University of Exeter

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Mathematical Sciences: Statistics
Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering

Improving weather and climate forecasting

Summary of the impact

Our research since 1993 has led directly to demonstrable improvements in the physical representation of atmospheric particulates in the suite of Met Office numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. These models have had enormous reach and significance across the REF period in both public sector and commercial Met Office activities. Our measurements impact directly on the model prediction of air quality, extreme pollution events (for fire brigade, police and public agencies), visibility, cloud cover, rainfall, and snowfall (for defence and the public weather service, commercial aviation, utilities, road and rail sectors).

Submitting Institution

University of Manchester

Unit of Assessment

Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience

Crops and climate change research informs international policy

Summary of the impact

A novel large-area process-based crop simulation model developed at the University of Reading and published in 2004 has been used to explore how climate change may affect crop production and global food security. The results of Reading's modelling work have been used as evidence to support the case for action on climate change for international agreements and used by the UK Government to inform various areas of policy and, in particular, to help frame its position on climate change at international negotiations. The database and knowledge from this model also informed the development of Reading's innovative web-based tool that locates sites where the climate today is similar to the projected climate in another location - providing insight into potential adaptation practices for crop production in the future by linking to present-day examples. This tool has been used to inform and train farmers and policy-makers in developing countries and has supported policy implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.

Submitting Institution

University of Reading

Unit of Assessment

Agriculture, Veterinary and Food Science

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Atmospheric Sciences
Economics: Applied Economics

Modelling oceanic internal waves to enhance marine and naval predictions and practices

Summary of the impact

Large-amplitude horizontally propagating internal solitary waves commonly occur in the interior of the ocean. This case study presents evidence to demonstrate the impact of research conducted by Professor Grimshaw at Loughborough University on the development and utilisation of Korteweg- de Vries (KdV) models of these waves, which has formed the paradigm for the theoretical modelling and practical prediction of these waves.

These waves are highly significant for sediment transport, continental shelf biology and interior ocean mixing, while their associated currents cause strong forces on marine platforms, underwater pipelines and submersibles, and the strong distortion of the density field has a severe impact on acoustic signalling.

The theory developed at Loughborough University has had substantial impact on the strategies developed by marine and naval engineers and scientists in dealing with these issues.

Submitting Institution

Loughborough University

Unit of Assessment

Mathematical Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Maritime Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

7 - Demonstrating the vulnerability of upland peatland ecosystems to climate change

Summary of the impact

UK upland peatlands constitute the world's greatest area of blanket bog, an endangered biome, and are the UK's largest natural habitat, carbon store, and pure water resource. The multi-institutional project "Climate Change Impacts on UK Upland Soils" identified models to predict the response of blanket bog to climatic and environmental changes and drew the attention of diverse stakeholders to the challenge of conserving these peatlands in a warming climate. The results have had impact on public policy and the environment by stimulating and informing debate. Since 2011, they have been (i) used by local and national agencies such as the Forestry Commission, (ii) included in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, (iii) cited by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Commission of Enquiry on Peatlands, and (iv) used in evidence for policy making by Defra and the Scottish Parliament.

Submitting Institution

Imperial College London

Unit of Assessment

Biological Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
Environmental Sciences: Environmental Science and Management

Turbulence research improves ocean forecasting and marine energy infrastructure

Summary of the impact

New techniques for measuring, and novel measurements of, turbulence in continental shelf seas and estuaries, developed by Bangor University's Turbulence and Mixing Group, have revolutionised the representation of key vertical exchange processes within state-of-the-art numerical ocean models. These measurements have directly improved modelling accuracy of coastal sea mixing dynamics and the forecasts produced are directly applied in development of government policy, marine energy technology, and search and rescue activities in the UK (e.g. Met Office, Cefas) and Baltic Sea regions of Europe. This measurement of marine turbulence has also provided critical information in determining the effective siting of marine renewable energy plants.

Submitting Institutions

Bangor University,Aberystwyth University

Unit of Assessment

Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

Summary Impact Type

Environmental

Research Subject Area(s)

Earth Sciences: Oceanography
Engineering: Environmental Engineering, Interdisciplinary Engineering

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