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The new research reported on in this case study on the determinants of household indebtedness and dynamics of household finances has informed government policy decisions, aided monetary policymakers and benefited the third sector. Work on measurement and analysis of over- indebtedness was used by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) to create new criteria for `over-indebtedness', monitor its development over time and model the Financial Services Authority (FSA) funding levy for free-to-client money advice services. Insights on how house prices affect consumption influenced the Bank of England in revising its understanding of the `collateral channel' of house price movements in its Quarterly Model. Through serving as an expert witness to a House of Commons Select Committee Inquiry into `Debt Management' the researchers challenged existing policy measures prompting policy response. The authors also disseminated research findings through a series of non-technical reports and applied projects which have been used to inform indebtedness policy by a broad constituency of free-to-client money advice providers.
As part of our commitment to public sociology (see REF3a), we have prioritised making Edinburgh sociological research on financial crises available to wider audiences: financial practitioners, policy makers and interested members of the general public. This has been primarily via six essays by Donald MacKenzie in the London Review of Books (LRB) and two invited articles in the Financial Times, listed in section 5.3. The impact of this research is in enhancing cultural understanding of finance and contributing to critical public debate. Evidence of its significance and reach includes: (a) public recognition (eg Prospect magazine naming MacKenzie amongst the 25 intellectuals with most impact on the "public conversation" about the financial crisis); (b) articles by others in prominent sources (the Financial Times and Economist) drawing on his work; (c) use of the Edinburgh University research in a major US corporate lawsuit; (d) reprints of the LRB articles eg in French and German public affairs magazines, in the booklets accompanying a Swedish exhibition and a Belgian art video, and in two financial-practitioner magazines.
Research undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM) has contributed to the development of a new interdisciplinary field, `Mathematical Behavioural Finance' (MBF), that deals with mathematical models of financial markets based on behavioural principles. These models go far beyond the conventional paradigm of fully rational utility maximization, and reflect a whole variety of patterns of market behaviour. A particular emphasis is on evolutionary aspects: growth, domination or just survival, especially in crisis environments.
Impacts can be seen in investment strategies based on MBF that have been successfully employed in large scale funds, since 2008, by Swiss and German corporate investors (AllMountain Capital AG and Deutsche Bank). These strategies have demonstrated high rates of return combined with relatively low volatility, coping exceptionally well with one of the most severe financial crises in recent history.
The Coalition government's manifesto commitments to remove compulsion in the annuity market necessitated a decision about a Minimum Income Requirement (MIR). Cannon's contribution to the government consultation played a significant role in setting the MIR. Previous research by Cannon had shown that the UK compulsory-purchase annuity market was efficient because compulsion expanded market size (more than half of all annuities are sold in the UK) and reduced selection effects. This research enabled the government to justify retaining an element of compulsion. The precise level of the MIR used in the 2011 Finance Bill was based upon the methodology proposed by Cannon.
Research by Oxford econometricians provided the basis for innovative new methods for predicting periods of potential financial stress and providing protection for investors against extreme events. During periods of financial stress, equity funds tend to sharply lose value while volatility tends to increase. Adding some long volatility exposure to a standard equity portfolio can significantly improve the tail behaviour of a portfolio. However, it is expensive to continually hold volatility contracts due to the volatility risk premium. Researchers at Man Group have applied the Oxford research to create new strategies to protect against tail risk and these are incorporated in their Tail Protect fund launched in October 2009.
This case study charts the influence of the Risk On / Risk Off (RORO) paradigm, developed in research at the University of Oxford in collaboration with investment bank HSBC. Since 2008, RORO has had a significant economic impact on HSBC as well as wider impact on the thinking and actions of investors and other global market participants. Having begun as a specialised research tool within HSBC's foreign exchange team, the RORO methodology was publicised in the advice that HSBC supply to a wide range of major fund managers, corporate institutions and central banks. The research has led directly to a change in the way that asset managers think about investment decisions, with consequent impact on the investment and risk management strategies they undertake. RORO is regularly featured in the financial press and is becoming increasingly mainstream, with coverage in national and international media aimed at retail investors.
This case study looks at the impact on the international finance industry and big business of research conducted at Heythrop College by Catherine Cowley. Cowley's work is transforming the ethical framework with which some of the most powerful corporations in the world operate and how they understand their role in society, as well as influencing the direction and content of the public debate over the ethics of finance and business.
There is widespread concern that UK households are not saving enough — personal saving rates fell below zero in 2007 and subsequent recovery has been modest. The challenges are whether policy can encourage households to save enough for their retirement and how to support policy makers in their thinking.
Professor Sefton developed a simulation model of the complex interaction of taxes and benefits with individual work and saving decisions. His model stimulated changes to the Pension Tax regime and informed the conclusions of the Pension Commission. This prompted further funding from HMT and HMRC, to bring his approach in-house: they now routinely embed his approach in their assessment of future tax policy changes.
The impact has therefore been that UK public policy is better informed, with fewer unintended consequences. The beneficiaries are the general public, both through minimisation of costly policy mistakes and because policy can now address the long-term sustainability of welfare policies.
Research at Aberystwyth has enhanced the capacity of forecasters to calibrate the scale of the impact on consumer spending of movements in house prices. Specifically research has provided improvements in the methodology used for estimating the impact of housing market shocks on consumer spending .This has impacted upon policy debates, including those in Central Banks, and informed methods of forecasting the impact of house prices on household economic behaviour. Thus a clearer understanding of an important macro-economic transmission mechanism has been provided. The research has also helped implementation of policy by assisting forecasters to calibrate the scale of the impact on consumer spending growth of movements in house prices, in particular taking into account the importance of controlling for expectations, and the distinction between behaviour in response to unanticipated versus anticipated housing market fluctuations.
The banking crisis that followed the collapse of Northern Rock in 2007 resulted in an urgent need to inject liquidity into the financial system. In order to resolve these issues, the Bank of England asked Professor Klemperer, an expert in auction theory, to help re-dseign its long-term market operations to allow the Bank of England to auction loans backed by financial collateral of varying quality. Since 2010, this has been adopted as the Bank of England's standard mechanism for its long-term repurchase operations. The potential impact of the new auction design extends beyond the Bank of England to other central banks, private industry and to industry regulators.