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This case study describes the impacts of the work undertaken at Manchester Metropolitan University's (MMU) Centre for Aviation, Transport, and the Environment (CATE), on international and national policy and legislation for reducing CO2 emissions from aviation and shipping. The research has provided a robust technical basis for emissions reductions of CO2 from aviation and the maritime sectors. It has influenced international and national policy development of the International Civil Aviation Organization through their Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (ICAO-CAEP), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the European Commission (EC), and the UK Committee on Climate Change (UKCCC). Greenhouse gas emission reductions have been pledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP) as a result of the United Nations Environment Program's (UNEP) influential report "Bridging the Emissions Gap", in which a chapter on aviation and shipping was led by CATE staff ([1], sec.3, numerical references to the research).
Tyndall-Manchester's research into UK aviation emissions was instrumental in overturning the prevailing orthodoxy, which regarded aviation as an unproblematic, small source of greenhouse gas emissions. Identifying drivers of growth and key characteristics of aviation's emerging emissions trajectory demonstrated that aviation could soon dominate national emissions if left unchecked. Tyndall-Manchester's research contributed to aviation's inclusion in sub-national, national and international climate policies. Specifically, it was highly influential in debates leading to including international aviation in the UK's 2050 emissions target; bringing aviation into the European Union's Emission Trading System. It continues to inform debate around future UK airport expansion, and is used to guide campaigning objectives of major environmental NGOs and lobby groups.
Research at the University of Exeter identifying potential climate tipping points and developing early warning methods for them has changed the framework for climate change discussion. Concepts introduced by Professor Tim Lenton and colleagues have infiltrated into climate change discussions among policy-makers, economists, business leaders, the media, and international social welfare organisations. Thorough analyses of abrupt, high impact, and uncertain probability events, including estimates of their proximity, has informed government debate and influenced policy around the world. It has also prompted the insurance and reinsurance industry to reconsider their risk portfolios and take into account tipping point events.
A comparative methodology to assess the impact of climate change in different countries, implemented by Gosling for a report commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), informed EU negotiations at the 2011 UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa. The conference concluded with the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action - a `road map' by which global legal agreement on climate change is to be implemented no later than 2015. For the first time, government ministers and their advisers attending an international conference were able to compare the impact of climate change in different countries, including those where scientific institutions have limited research capacity.
Information on the potential impacts of climate change across the world, and on the effects of policies designed to reduce emissions, is fundamental to inform the development of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Research conducted at the Unit has been critical to the establishment of a target 80% cut in UK carbon emissions by 2050, as enforced by the Climate Change Act (2008), and provided an affirmation of the relevance of the 2f0b0C global mean temperature rise target central to national and international climate mitigation policy. Research into the global consequences of climate change, particularly for water resources and river flooding, has been used by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to assess the impacts of un-mitigated climate change and the effects of different mitigation policy options.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.
The US government's announcement of an increase in the `social cost of carbon' (SCC) from $24 to $38 a tonne has been made on the basis of research by Richard Tol, of the University of Sussex. Regulation based on the new SCC (a measure of the damage of releasing an additional tonne of carbon into the atmosphere) initially applies to microwave ovens, where it is anticipated to save US consumers billions on their energy bills over coming decades and prevent 38 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. From June 2013, the new SCC applies to any new or revised regulation by any branch of the US government and will eventually affect a wide range of products and investments, including cars, white goods and power plants.
Tol, who works as an adviser to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has been instrumental in helping the agency to understand the economic impacts of climate change and the methods and assumptions that underpin SCC estimates. The US government's estimates of the SCC are widely used by other decision-makers in the private sector, banks and NGOs and in other countries.
The UK's Climate Change Bill (2008) proposed a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 60% by 2050. Tyndall-Manchester's research concluded this target was inconsistent with the government's repeated commitment to a temperature rise of no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It demonstrated a minimum 80% reduction was necessary; scientifically-robust policies must be based on `cumulative emissions' (carbon budgets); and that targets should include emissions from aviation and shipping. All three recommendations are now explicitly enshrined in primary legislation, with the responsible Secretary of State acknowledging the "signal contribution" of Tyndall-Manchester's research to the 2008 Climate Change Act.
The research has had significant impact on the design and implementation of public-private partnerships at the international level (theme 1). It has led to new professional groups within the finance sector (theme 2). In particular research has directly influenced the investments of the International Climate Fund (£2.9 billion) set up by the UK Government; the Little Rock Accord signed in December 2012, with the Club de Madrid group of former world leaders; credit rating analysis of energy and water utilities by Standard & Poor's; and a new Board in the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Collectively these groups influence substantial capital flows into climate and resource solutions globally.
Impact: Policy. First ever Scottish and UK Government estimates for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Agriculture, Land Use change and Forestry (ALUF) in Scotland and the UK to 2020.
Significance: The global policy agenda on greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions requires governments to seek ways to reduce emissions cost-effectively. Scotland and the UK have statutory targets on emissions reduction. The research showed which measures can be implemented at a cost that is less than the government's benchmark. It has saved the equivalent of £250 million worth of avoided climate damages.
Beneficiaries: Government departments and policy makers, farmers, general population.
Attribution: Intra-disciplinary work by Prof. Moran, Dr. Wall (SRUC).
Reach: Immediate impact at Scottish and UK national level has led, by repute, to a broadening of impact (through extension of the underlying methods) for applications internationally (i.e. France).