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Technology developed at UoM on clouds and aerosols proved vital in deriving ash mass concentrations during the 2010 eruption of the Iceland volcano, verifying the Met Office model that was defining the airspace exclusion zone and predict ash loadings for the Civil Aviation Authority. The shutdown of airspace cost the airline industry worldwide an estimated $1.7bn, reaching $400m per day on April 19th. Reassurance provided by our verification allowed lifting of flight restrictions which had the immediate effect of re-opening airspace, relieving the impact on hundreds of thousands of people globally, leading to an estimated global saving to the industry of $10bn The approach has resulted in new long term airborne response capability at the Met Office.
Impacts: I) Operational decision making during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, including that of the UK Civil Aviation Authority to relax airspace restrictions over Europe. II) Strategic planning for future volcanic hazards, including the 2012 classification by the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies of Icelandic volcanic eruptions as a `highest priority risk'.
Significance and reach: The relaxation of airspace restrictions over Europe affected up to ten million travellers and mitigated on-going airline industry costs of up to £130 million per day.
Underpinned by: Research into the size, frequency and dynamics of Icelandic volcanic eruptions, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (2006 — January 2013).
Air pollution is a major health concern and government policy driver. Leeds researchers and colleagues have developed a detailed chemical mechanism which describes reactions in the lower atmosphere leading to the formation of ozone and secondary particulate matter, key air pollutants. The so-called `master chemical mechanism' (MCM) is considered the `gold standard' and has been used by the UK government and industry groups to inform their position on EU legislation and by the US EPA to validate and extend their regulatory models. The Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department has used the MCM to identify key ozone precursors and provide evidence for abatement strategies.
Research carried out at the University of Leeds has led to the development of a system for predicting severe air turbulence at airports and elsewhere. The research modelled highly localised `rotor streaming' turbulence which is too small-scale to predict using today's numerical weather prediction models. The Met Office now uses the highly efficient 3DVOM computer prediction model, based on the Leeds research, to improve its operational weather forecasting, especially for providing warnings of `gustiness' to the public and airports and to highlight risks of overturning of high-sided vehicles. In addition, the model is used by forecasters to predict dangerous turbulence at Mount Pleasant Airport in the Falkland Islands, and has led to the prevention of around five flight diversions per year at an estimated cost saving of £1.25 million.
Particulate Matter is now recognised as the air pollutant with the greatest public health impact, estimated to cost up to £8.5-20.2 billion per annum (in 2005).Roy Harrison has engaged closely with UK policy-makers for decades. This impact case study focuses specifically on the take-up of PM mass-closure techniques developed by Harrison's group into a UK policy-making tool called Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM). Work by the Harrison group forms the basis of the component dealing with airborne particles in the PCM model used by Defra. The work described in this case study has economic impact in the form of costs avoided by the UK national, devolved and local governments (reallocation of public budgets away from expensive air pollution monitoring and avoidance of EU financial penalties), public policy impact in the form of cost-effective delivery of air pollution mapping, and environmental impact in the form of traceable inclusion of research in government policies for air quality improvement.
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland caused prolonged closure of European airspace, costing the global airline industry an estimated $200 million per day and disrupting 10 million passengers. We have developed and tested models that predict the dispersal of volcanic ash and developed instrumentation to monitor ash clouds during flight bans and used it to test the models. Our research played a key role in establishing the need for a flight ban and in the adoption of a more flexible approach to its staged lifting as the emergency continued. It also led to increased levels of readiness and to new emergency procedures being put in place across Europe which have minimised the economic costs and human inconvenience without an unacceptable rise in the risks to passengers and crew. The new procedures safely eliminated unnecessary disruption to flights in the latter days of the crisis and during the subsequent eruption of another Icelandic volcano, Grímsvötn in 2011.
Measurements made by unique radiosondes, conceived at and built by the university to count and size atmospheric aerosols, were used to validate UK Met Office models that forecast the amount and trajectory of the volcanic ash from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. These first in situ measurements justified the authorities' cautious approach in grounding flights, thereby not jeopardising air passenger safety, despite huge pressure from commercial interests. The Met Office subsequently purchased further radiosondes for future deployment, and the underpinning particle detection technology is now licensed to a UK company for worldwide exploitation in areas of environmental monitoring, air quality and industrial safety.
Research at the University of Manchester (UoM) has changed the landscape of medical care and research in fungal infections internationally. The impacts include: the world's first commercialised molecular diagnostic products for aspergillosis and Pneumocystis pneumonia (£10m investment); pivotal contributions to the preclinical development (£35m investment), clinical developments and registrations of 3 new antifungals with combined market share of ~$2 billion; one (voriconazole, 2012 sales >$750m worldwide) now first line therapy for invasive aspergillosis with improved survival of 15-20%; and internationally validated methods to detect azole resistance in Aspergillus (an emerging problem partly related to environmental spraying of azole fungicides for crop protection).
The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that global society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Research at the University of Leeds has shown that volcanic gases and airborne particles could be a significant health hazard to humans — potentially more fatal than seasonal `flu. Leeds scientists used computer models to demonstrate that a long-lasting, gas-rich eruption in Iceland could degrade air quality and lead to well over 100,000 deaths across Europe. In January 2012, the number of potential fatalities was used as evidence by the UK government for the decision to add large-magnitude effusive Icelandic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies as a high priority risk with potentially widespread effects on health, agriculture and transport. Leeds researchers continue to advise the UK government on the mitigation of potential volcanic hazards through the Civil Contingencies Secretariat.
New techniques for measuring, and novel measurements of, turbulence in continental shelf seas and estuaries, developed by Bangor University's Turbulence and Mixing Group, have revolutionised the representation of key vertical exchange processes within state-of-the-art numerical ocean models. These measurements have directly improved modelling accuracy of coastal sea mixing dynamics and the forecasts produced are directly applied in development of government policy, marine energy technology, and search and rescue activities in the UK (e.g. Met Office, Cefas) and Baltic Sea regions of Europe. This measurement of marine turbulence has also provided critical information in determining the effective siting of marine renewable energy plants.