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Research into the quantification and reduction of geological uncertainty has directly resulted in changes to UK government policy relating to the subsurface as a geological resource. Through Prof Shipton's membership of the Royal Society/Royal Academy of Engineering (Joint Academies) expert working group on risks associated with shale gas extraction in the UK, her research has informed the Department of Energy and Climate Change on ways to calculate and mitigate the risk of seismicity and associated undesirable fluid flow. The Joint Academies report resulted in the lifting of the UK Government embargo on fracking in Dec 2012, allowing exploration for shale gas in the UK to resume, with associated economic and societal benefits of an enhanced UK gas resource. Prof Lunn's membership of the UK Government Committee for Radioactive Waste Management (CoRWM) (2008-present) has resulted in her research informing the substantial changes made to the siting policy for UK radioactive waste disposal from February 2013.
Impact: Multi-national developments in public policy and service provision related to earthquake risk reduction, derived from the work of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF), established following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.
Significance and reach: In 2012 the Italian Department of Civil Protection allocated €1billion for seismic protection, including a multi-year programme on operational earthquake forecasting. New programmes/policies have been enacted by government bodies in the USA (2012), Russia (2012) and Japan (May 2013).
Underpinned by: Research into earthquake dynamics and predictability, undertaken at the University of Edinburgh (1996 onwards), which led to the appointment of the sole UK representative to the ICEF.
Economic gains by oil and gas companies, improvements in professional practice in hydrocarbon exploration, and environmental benefits from identifying CO2 disposal sites have been achieved through a Cardiff-led consortium with industry. Building on research carried out since 2004, ten of the largest oil companies in the World have contributed to and benefited from understanding how faulted caprocks behave under specific geological conditions. Research at Cardiff has shown which families of faults and fractures make caprocks highly permeable, thus improving Industry's ability to predict if caprocks are able to prevent oil and gas reaching the surface.
Enhanced structural geology models of complex fractured reservoirs, utilising new virtual- and field-based techniques developed at Durham, have been applied by industry in the Faroe- Shetland region, N Britain and helped sanction development of the 8 billion barrel Clair Ridge project, a £4.5 billion investment by the Clair Joint Venture Group (BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Chevron). Geospatial Research Ltd (a spin-out launched in 2004) has additionally used Durham structural geology research methodologies and expertise to provide > £1.3 million of consultancy services to the global hydrocarbon industry creating, since 2008, 12 new highly skilled jobs.
The Cambridge University Centre for Risk in the Built Environment (CURBE) investigates techniques to identify, monitor and assess risk. Since 1997, CURBE's research contributed to real- world applications that reduce detrimental impacts of natural and manmade hazards, including the recent Haiti earthquake. Collaborators and users of the underpinning research include the British Council, the Government Office for Science, the US Geological Survey and Federal Emergency Management Agency in the USA, UN Habitat and private modellers and insurance companies involved in risk such as Risk Management Solutions and Willis Re.
The Comprehensive nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is the leading tool for minimizing the high-magnitude threats posed by nuclear weapons to the environment and to world peace. A major impediment to monitoring compliance with the CTBT is the difficulty of distinguishing natural earthquakes from man-made explosions: the seismic discrimination problem. Seismological research at Oxford University into fundamentals of theoretical and computational seismology led to the development of new methods and algorithms that are now integrated into discrimination for CTBT monitoring. The resulting impact has been a major upgrade in the UK's capability in seismic discrimination, and a significant contribution to global capabilities in this area.
Our research has had a global impact on understanding the tectonic development and fill of rift basins, providing a predictable spatial and temporal template for the distribution of hydrocarbon reservoir rocks. The models are embedded in exploration workflows of global oil companies and have influenced recent exploration success (North and East Africa, Atlantic conjugate margins). Translational research on 3-D rift basin outcrop data capture and resulting software licencing has improved reservoir modelling, optimising positioning of $100m wells. Field-based training for several hundred oil industry staff since 2005 has ensured in-depth knowledge transfer.