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Research carried out at the University of Aberdeen has addressed important clinical needs in neuropsychology/ clinical psychology. The work has provided large sample normative data for psychological tests which clinicians can use for comparison with a patient's test score. It has also resulted in methods enabling them to draw inferences on individual patient performance, and methods to use existing published data for reference purposes. All of these have been made available to clinical practitioners in user-friendly computer programs. Together, they have impacted directly on the quality of care for people with neurological and psychological conditions in the UK and worldwide, as well as the training of clinical neuropsychologists.
The resulting claimed impact has been on healthcare professional guidelines and training. Practitioners have used these research findings and tools in the conduct of their work.
In response to the deficiencies in bank risk management revealed following the 2008 financial crisis, one of the mandated requirements under the Basel III regulatory framework is for banks to backtest the internal models they use to price their assets and to calculate how much capital they require should a counterparty default. Qiwei Yao worked with the Quantitative Analyst — Exposure team at Barclays Bank, which is responsible for constructing the Barclays Counterpart Credit Risk (CCR) backtesting methodology. They made use of several statistical methods from Yao's research to construct the newly developed backtesting methodology which is now in operation at Barclays Bank. This puts the CCR assessment and management at Barclays in line with the Basel III regulatory capital framework.
Small area estimation (SAE) describes the use of Bayesian modelling of survey and administrative data in order to provide estimates of survey responses at a much finer level than is possible from the survey alone. Over the recent past, academic publications have mostly targeted the development of the methodology for SAE using small-scale examples. Only predictions on the basis of realistically sized samples have the potential to impact on governance and our contribution is to fill a niche by delivering such SAEs on a national scale through the use of a scaling method. The impact case study concerns the use of these small area predictions to develop disease-level predictions for some 8,000 GPs in England and so to produce a funding formula for use in primary care that has informed the allocation of billions of pounds of NHS money. The value of the model has been recognised in NHS guidelines. The methodology has begun to have impact in other areas, including the BIS `Skills for Life' survey.
Research in quantum-mechanical methods, conducted at the School of Chemistry at Cardiff University, has resulted in the creation of an innovative software package called Molpro. Molpro provides the ability to calculate from first principles (ab initio) the properties of molecular matter. It is unique and differs from other quantum chemistry packages because, using local electron correlation methods, it significantly reduces the increase of the computational cost with molecular size. This means highly accurate computations can be performed for much larger molecules than with most other programs, and the screening of far wider libraries of potential new materials is enabled. Consequently, Molpro is extremely valuable to the global chemical and pharmaceutical industries and has been endorsed and applied by major international corporations that manufacture products that are used by a wide range of industries (including cosmetics, automotive and construction). Examples are BASF, Mitsubishi Chemical Group, Sasol and Nissan Chemical Industries.
The software is distributed under licence through Cardiff University and resellers, operating in China, Japan, Brazil, Taiwan, Russia, Poland and the USA. During the REF period, it has generated over £1.75M in revenue, and is used by over 650 organisations worldwide. Accordingly the impact claimed is extensive economic gain and impact on practitioners and professional services.
A team at the University of Liverpool has undertaken research that has informed practice and policy worldwide in the management of patients presenting with newly diagnosed epilepsy, which has achieved international impact on health. Seizures are common and 3-5% of the population will be given a diagnosis of epilepsy during their lifetime. Decisions about when to start treatment, and if so with which drug are crucial and can have a significant effect on outcomes for the individual and have significant economic consequences for society. The research includes the undertaking and analysis of data from randomised controlled trials. The data analysis is based on the statistical research initiated by Dr Paula Williamson while in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Liverpool between 1996 and 2000. The research identified the most appropriate first line treatments for patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy, addressing both clinical and cost effectiveness. This work has underpinned national policy and triggered the most recent update of the NICE (National Institute for Clinical Excellence) epilepsy guidelines in 2012.
Onchocerciasis (river blindness) is a debilitating disease of major public health importance in the wet tropics. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) seeks to control or eliminate the disease in 19 countries. Accurate mapping of Loiasis (eye-worm) was a requirement for implementation of APOC's mass-treatment prophylactic medication programme in order to mitigate against serious adverse reactions to the Onchocerciasis medication in areas also highly endemic for Loiasis. Model-based geostatistical methods developed at Lancaster were used to obtain the required maps and contributed to a change in practice of APOC in a major health programme in Africa. Our maps are used to plan the delivery of the mass-treatment programme to rural communities throughout the APOC countries, an estimated total population of 115 million.
In a series of papers published from 1999 on, Aitken (Maxwell Institute) and collaborators applied Bayesian statistics to develop a methodology for the quantification of judicial evidence derived from forensic analyses. They proposed and implemented procedures for (i) determining the optimal size of samples that should be taken from potentially incriminating material (such as drugs seized); and (ii) the estimation of likelihood ratios characterising evidence provided by multivariate hierarchical data (such as the chemical composition of crime-scene samples). Their procedures have been recommended in international guideline documents (including a 2009 publication by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) and have been routinely used by forensic science laboratories worldwide since 2008. The research has therefore had an impact on the administration of justice, leading to a better use of evidence and accompanying judicial and economic benefits. Examples are given from laboratories in Australia, Sweden and The Netherlands.
This research has profoundly influenced the practice of pharmacoepidemiology in 2008-13. The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method is particularly well-suited for working with computerised databases, which are increasingly used in epidemiology. The method has been recommended by international agencies (WHO, ECDC) and is now widely used by health practitioners within national public health agencies, including the CDC (USA), Public Health England (UK) and many other national and regional public health bodies. It has influenced practice within the private sector (notably the pharmaceutical and the healthcare industries). Use of the SCCS method has impacted on health by reducing costs, improving timeliness and improving the quality of evidence upon which policy decisions are based.
The WinBUGS software (and now OpenBUGS software), developed initially at Cambridge from 1989-1996 and then further at Imperial from 1996-2007, has made practical MCMC Bayesian methods readily available to applied statisticians and data analysts. The software has been instrumental in facilitating routine Bayesian analysis of a vast range of complex statistical problems covering a wide spectrum of application areas, and over 20 years after its inception, it remains the leading software tool for applied Bayesian analysis among both academic and non-academic communities internationally. WinBUGS had over 30,000 registered users as of 2009 (the software is now open-source and users are no longer required to register) and a Google search on the term `WinBUGS' returns over 205,000 hits (over 42,000 of which are since 2008) with applications as diverse as astrostatistics, solar radiation modelling, fish stock assessments, credit risk assessment, production of disease maps and atlases, drug development and healthcare provider profiling.
Research by the University of Huddersfield's School of Applied Sciences has played a major role in addressing the difficulties experienced by people who use inhalers. The work has adapted existing methodologies so they can mimic how patients use nebulisers and dry powder inhalers, thereby enhancing understanding of a problem that affects millions globally. Findings and insights have been incorporated in "gold standard" guidelines that are influencing practice and policy around the world, while lead researcher Professor Henry Chrystyn's methods and techniques have become central to academic, practitioner and industry efforts to tackle the issue at national and international level.