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This case study describes how an economic and statistical analysis of tax policy undertaken by Chris Heady has been used to inform fiscal policy decisions, both in the UK and overseas.
The research has had a direct impact on public policy, informing HM Treasury's decision in 2011 to increase the main rate of value added tax and accelerate the reduction in the rate of corporation tax. It has also had a broader impact through contributing to the government's understanding of the role of tax policy in promoting growth, and through informing public understanding of the issue.
In addition to its significance to UK public policy, the research has had international reach as it has been presented for discussion by the international tax community and international organisations.
Research by Surrey's Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) has had significant impact on monetary policy in several emerging economies.
This case study highlights impact in Nigeria and Pakistan. Both are important emerging economies: Nigeria is the second largest economy in Africa and ranks 30th by world GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity), while Pakistan ranks 27th; yet GDP per capita is relatively low in both.
Since 2008, Surrey research has: (1) led to the establishment of a new Centre for Survey Research at the State Bank of Pakistan, collecting data that have directly influenced the Bank's monetary policy; (2) steered reform of the macroeconomic models used by the State Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria; and (3) helped develop a new approach to monetary policy Nigeria.
The University of Bath has undertaken extensive research on the conduct of the tobacco industry (TI) and its influence over public policies.
This research has (a) significantly extended understanding of TI influence, by showing that the TI not only attempts to influence public health policies, but also enjoys significant influence over upstream policies; (b) provided some of the best documented examples of corporate influence over EU policy-making, raising concerns about transparency in policy-making; and (c) increased awareness that regulatory reforms known as Better Regulation may pose a threat to public health.
The key impact of this research, from 2008, is that it has reduced the ability of the TI to influence public health policy. This has been achieved by contributing to the development and implementation of Article 5.3 of the WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the WHO's first global health treaty. These impacts involved work with beneficiaries including WHO and a variety of NGOs and by increasing awareness among policy makers of TI influence.
Tobacco is the leading cause of preventable mortality globally, accounting for almost 6 million deaths annually. The potential for health gain is therefore very significant. This research has had a substantial and demonstrable impact in securing this.
Research at Aberystwyth has enhanced the capacity of forecasters to calibrate the scale of the impact on consumer spending of movements in house prices. Specifically research has provided improvements in the methodology used for estimating the impact of housing market shocks on consumer spending .This has impacted upon policy debates, including those in Central Banks, and informed methods of forecasting the impact of house prices on household economic behaviour. Thus a clearer understanding of an important macro-economic transmission mechanism has been provided. The research has also helped implementation of policy by assisting forecasters to calibrate the scale of the impact on consumer spending growth of movements in house prices, in particular taking into account the importance of controlling for expectations, and the distinction between behaviour in response to unanticipated versus anticipated housing market fluctuations.
Economic models with adaptive learning developed in Mitra's research are increasingly being adopted by policy authorities and in the training of graduate students. The usual paradigm in economics, rational expectations (RE), unrealistically assumes complete knowledge on the part of policymakers and households. Mitra's work has emphasised informational limitations faced by policymakers and provides guidance for policies in these situations. Monetary policy is an area where different types of models are heavily used and their results are one input to the policy decisions. The impact of this case study should be seen by virtue of pioneering an approach that has come to be accepted by the economics profession as the realistic one to analyse macroeconomic policy changes under bounded rationality; this approach has led to a large outgrowth of applied models used in policy making in recent times. These policy oriented works have provided support for the aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages that have been adopted in the wake of the financial crisis in 2007. They have been disseminated widely through presentations at numerous conferences sponsored by central banks in the presence of senior policymakers. The research has also influenced the teaching of macro and monetary economics; it is part of reading lists of leading MPhil/PhD programmes and has in part contributed to PhD students specialising in this broad area of research.
Since it was established in 2005, the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation (CBT) has had significant and wide-ranging impact on several aspects of the formation of tax policy in Europe. Feeding into the current topical public debate on business taxation, the centre's research on the design and effects of corporation tax and VAT has had impact in several ways, two of which are highlighted here: 1) on a proposal by the European Commission, and the response by member states, to harmonise corporation tax within the EU, in which the research has been partly responsible for the reform not being implemented; and 2) on a far-reaching reform to VAT in Portugal, where the research contributed significantly to the design of the revised VAT system.
A series of empirical research studies, underpinned by economic theory, explored enterprise support and urban settlement structure. The research contributed significantly to the evidence base used by East Midlands Development Agency (EMDA) in developing their Regional Economic Strategy (RES), and was key in shaping two of the Strategic Priorities. More generally, the research-based recommendations informed EMDA policy development, in particular, the £290 million Single Programme investment set out in the RES. The research also helped shape county councils' support for enterprise, innovation and business. More recently, the research has informed the shape of regional economic development beyond the regional development agencies into new government policy through the new Local Enterprise Partnerships; for example Lincolnshire's £14 million investment in broadband.
Professors of Economic History Steven Broadberry and Nicholas Crafts benchmarked historical British productivity performance against other modern economies and determined the factors which most influenced productivity growth, highlighting the important roles played by supply-side policies including education, innovation, competition, and labour relations policies. Their research has impacted both public and policymaker understanding of pro-growth responses the current government could make to the 2008 financial crisis. Their findings underpinned many Thatcher government policies and supported the retention of these policies by governments that followed.
The research carried out by Professor Richard Blundell transformed understanding of the responsiveness of labour supply to tax and welfare reform, and fundamentally changed the public debate about taxation. This was achieved most clearly through the Mirrlees Review of Tax Reform, co-authored by Professor Blundell, and through publications that provided the key scientific evidence behind the tax rate, tax credit and benefit integration proposals. These proposals had substantive impact on policy reform at home and abroad, ranging from public debate on the fundamental principles of taxation to immediate impact on tax and welfare reform legislation, such as the business case for the Universal Credit reform.
McNay's work is at the boundaries between HEIs and their environment: policy analysis, particularly of Access and, here, Research Quality Assessment, and the impact on internal strategies; and organisational analysis and the way internal cultures and processes are conditioned by external influences. His conceptual model of cultures is used by professionals worldwide to evaluate and improve leadership and management and introduce change. RAE impact analysis has influenced policy (eg on the teaching /research nexus) in the UK and elsewhere) and staff behaviour. It was a factor leading to adjustment of later exercises towards profiling, consistency of criteria and impact