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The world financial crisis and recession of 2007- 2009, and the continued stagnation of global economies, has raised the question of how governments and central banks should respond in deep recessions. Prof. Evans and colleagues have shown using macroeconomic models with adaptive learning that after large pessimistic shocks, a rapid switch to aggressive monetary easing is required and aggressive fiscal policy may be needed. To achieve policy impact this work has been presented in numerous central bank conferences, and it has caught the attention of several members of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC). The policies of the FOMC since 2008 have been consistently aggressive, despite public criticism and even dissension within the FOMC itself. This research has provided important academic support for the application of these policies.
Research by Surrey's Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) has had significant impact on monetary policy in several emerging economies.
This case study highlights impact in Nigeria and Pakistan. Both are important emerging economies: Nigeria is the second largest economy in Africa and ranks 30th by world GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity), while Pakistan ranks 27th; yet GDP per capita is relatively low in both.
Since 2008, Surrey research has: (1) led to the establishment of a new Centre for Survey Research at the State Bank of Pakistan, collecting data that have directly influenced the Bank's monetary policy; (2) steered reform of the macroeconomic models used by the State Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria; and (3) helped develop a new approach to monetary policy Nigeria.
Research published between 2003 and 2010 on central bank design has established Sibert as an internationally-recognised authority whose ideas have changed the way that policy makers, academics and the public think about monetary policy committees and have influenced efforts to increase the accountability of these committees and the call to increase female participation, particularly at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Recognition of the practical value of this research-based understanding is evident in her 2009 appointment to the newly-formed Icelandic five-member monetary policy committee.
Sibert's research investigates the structure of central banks and monetary policy committees, as well as other decision-making groups, and on how their design affects their performance. In particular, she focuses on how it matters that monetary policy is made by a group rather than an individual and how a monetary policy committee can be designed to produce the best possible outcome for monetary policy. She communicates her research through refereed journal articles, invited publications; policy articles, speeches and opinion pieces.
University of Glasgow research, undertaken in collaboration with the Universities of Exeter and Oxford, directly influenced the Government decision to create the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Conservative Party cited the research as part of the rationale for the creation of such a fiscal body in its policy paper in 2008; the research was subsequently presented to the Strategy Unit of the Cabinet Office, No.'s 10 and 11 Downing Street and the Institute of Government throughout 2008 and 2009. The proposal was implemented by the coalition government in 2010, with the research team then using the findings to advise a Treasury Select Committee as well as the Bank of England on the appropriate remit, expectations and functions of the newly-created OBR.
Giancarlo Corsetti has a long-term engagement with monetary authorities (the European Central Bank and since 2010 the Bank of England) where his research has had an impact on the development of frameworks for analysing stabilization policies in open economies. Since September 2010, his research has specifically focused on: (a) monetary policy trade-offs between internal objectives and exchange rate misalignment and external imbalances; (b) macroeconomic stabilization with high and variable sovereign risk; (c) the design of a monetary backstop to government debt. The research has had an impact through setting policy research agendas; through the inputs into scenario and econometric analyses; through forming the basis of Giancarlo's contribution to high-level policy seminars and the basis of his training of central bank officers.
Research at Oxford by members of the International Growth Centre (IGC), funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Department for International Development (DFID), has played an important role in shaping two key areas of monetary and exchange rate policy formulation in East Africa.
Research on food prices and inflation in Tanzania is providing the technical basis for the discussions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Tanzania, and has contributed to current thinking by the African Development Bank (ADB) on policy responses to global food price volatility in East Africa.
Work on exchange rate policy has helped shape the Draft Protocol on East African Monetary Union currently being negotiated between the East African Community (EAC) partner states (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi).
Professor Michael Keating has worked on various aspects of public policy-making in Scotland and abroad, supported primarily by the ESRC and Leverhulme Trust. Impact has taken the form of a series of collaborative academic-practitioner engagements, involving civil servants, politicians, and civil society actors. These events have focused on establishing a common vocabulary and core concepts, while exploring difficult issues in public policy and facilitating mutual learning between academics and practitioners. Insights from these encounters have been institutionalised in the Scottish Policy Innovation Forum, as well as ongoing seminars, public lectures, innovative training courses for civil servants, and informal discussions.
The European Central Bank (ECB) uses forecasting tools to make predictions about the Eurozone economy as a whole. The University of Leicester has worked with the ECB to modify its main forecasting tool to improve its ability to take effective and timely action to keep inflation low and minimise deflation.
Similarly, the United Nations prepares a submission to each G8 Summit which includes forecasting and policy analysis based on the economies of the 193 member states. The forecasting tool used to create this submission has also been created in collaboration with the University of Leicester. These modelling tools help the world's most powerful leaders - both political and financial - to make informed and timely decisions about issues affecting economic stability, global food security and international safety.
In 2010, the new Conservative government established the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. The economic case for an independent body to monitor fiscal policy was based on research by Professor Simon Wren-Lewis and his co-authors into fiscal policy rules and optimal debt policy. This research has provided important inputs to policymakers' thinking about fiscal councils, both in the UK and overseas. Work by Professor Wren-Lewis has strongly influenced and shaped the design and subsequent development of the UK's Office for Budgetary Responsibility.
Since the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States, a key issue for central banks has been the extent to which they should use monetary policy, along with macroprudential tools, to promote financial stability. University of Manchester (UoM) research has developed small theoretical models, and more detailed quantitative macroeconomic models, to help address this issue. This analytical work has helped to: firstly, influence the policies and operations of several major central banks (Brazil, Turkey and Morocco); and secondly, fuel the debate about global reform of bank regulation in international forums, such as the Financial Stability Board, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and annual meetings of central banks from Latin America. Impact has been achieved through presentations to these forums, alongside discussions with senior policymakers from other countries.