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Information on the potential impacts of climate change across the world, and on the effects of policies designed to reduce emissions, is fundamental to inform the development of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Research conducted at the Unit has been critical to the establishment of a target 80% cut in UK carbon emissions by 2050, as enforced by the Climate Change Act (2008), and provided an affirmation of the relevance of the 2f0b0C global mean temperature rise target central to national and international climate mitigation policy. Research into the global consequences of climate change, particularly for water resources and river flooding, has been used by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to assess the impacts of un-mitigated climate change and the effects of different mitigation policy options.
Research at the University of Southampton has redefined understanding of the potential rapidity of sea level rise above the present, and of the relationship between climate change and sea level. It has informed the "worst-case scenario" for climate change flood risk assessment in the UK as well as key adaptation policy documents throughout Europe, North America and Australasia. Impact generation occurs mainly though active public engagement, which ensures widespread international media attention, and through direct interaction with the Environment Agency (EA) and UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) which have now joined the research group in a £3.3 million consortium project to better define the "worst case scenario".
The US government's announcement of an increase in the `social cost of carbon' (SCC) from $24 to $38 a tonne has been made on the basis of research by Richard Tol, of the University of Sussex. Regulation based on the new SCC (a measure of the damage of releasing an additional tonne of carbon into the atmosphere) initially applies to microwave ovens, where it is anticipated to save US consumers billions on their energy bills over coming decades and prevent 38 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. From June 2013, the new SCC applies to any new or revised regulation by any branch of the US government and will eventually affect a wide range of products and investments, including cars, white goods and power plants.
Tol, who works as an adviser to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has been instrumental in helping the agency to understand the economic impacts of climate change and the methods and assumptions that underpin SCC estimates. The US government's estimates of the SCC are widely used by other decision-makers in the private sector, banks and NGOs and in other countries.
University of Southampton research has been crucial in informing and stimulating worldwide debate on geoengineering — the possible large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system in order to avoid dangerous climate change. Climate modellers at Southampton helped to reveal the potential extent of the fossil fuel "hangover" — the long-term damaging effects expected from anthropogenic CO2 emissions centuries or even millennia after they end. This work led Professor John Shepherd FRS to initiate and chair a Royal Society study, whose 2009 report, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, government and uncertainty, is the global benchmark document on geoengineering strategies, influencing UK and foreign government policy.
3DU researchers have used innovative techniques for reconstructing past sea levels to compile a comprehensive database of evidence on recent and current UK sea-level change, and have developed an improved model of vertical land movement which is consistent with the historical data on sea-level change. The model and database underpin the sea-level component of the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) climate modelling tool, and thereby inform a wide range of coastal planning and management activities around the UK. DU researchers have also applied these methodological advances in detailed work on coastal stability at existing and proposed sites for nuclear power stations and nuclear waste repositories in England and Sweden.
Hope's research in developing the PAGE2002 model of climate change has been used extensively by government agencies in the UK and US, as well as the IMF and the international community in order to improve their calculations for global carbon emissions and setting carbon emissions targets. The model was used in the UK government's Eliasch Review, in order to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in order to calculate the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and the IMF, whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.
A comparative methodology to assess the impact of climate change in different countries, implemented by Gosling for a report commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), informed EU negotiations at the 2011 UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa. The conference concluded with the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action - a `road map' by which global legal agreement on climate change is to be implemented no later than 2015. For the first time, government ministers and their advisers attending an international conference were able to compare the impact of climate change in different countries, including those where scientific institutions have limited research capacity.
The United Kingdom is today better adapted to climate risks as a result of a sustained programme of research completed by the School into the impacts of climate change on ecological, social and infrastructural systems. This work has had significant and continuing impact on the design and implementation of UK (and international) climate adaptation strategies and policies, especially with regard to flooding, the built environment and water and coastal management. Decision-support tools (such as climate scenarios and options appraisal) and direct policy advice produced by the School have been used by numerous public and private sector organisations to inform and guide their adaptation strategies and investments.
Research conducted at Plymouth University on the coastal environment has informed climate strategy and transport planning in the UK. The research resulted in the United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) re-analysing and correcting rates of coastal land movement to improve predictions of sea-level change, in its UK Climate Projections science report (Lowe et al. 2009). These data now help underpin government policy related to climate change impacts. A follow-on project, focusing on the impact of sea-level rise on the Dawlish-Teignmouth stretch of the London-Penzance Railway line, was used by Network Rail in the implementation of its climate change adaptation strategy. This stretch of railway is recognised as critical infrastructure as it is the only means of access to west Devon, Plymouth and Cornwall by train from the rest of the country. Devon County Council also used the work to inform its third Local Transport Plan (LPT3) and the future management of coastal infrastructure.
A novel large-area process-based crop simulation model developed at the University of Reading and published in 2004 has been used to explore how climate change may affect crop production and global food security. The results of Reading's modelling work have been used as evidence to support the case for action on climate change for international agreements and used by the UK Government to inform various areas of policy and, in particular, to help frame its position on climate change at international negotiations. The database and knowledge from this model also informed the development of Reading's innovative web-based tool that locates sites where the climate today is similar to the projected climate in another location - providing insight into potential adaptation practices for crop production in the future by linking to present-day examples. This tool has been used to inform and train farmers and policy-makers in developing countries and has supported policy implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.