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The banking crisis that followed the collapse of Northern Rock in 2007 resulted in an urgent need to inject liquidity into the financial system. In order to resolve these issues, the Bank of England asked Professor Klemperer, an expert in auction theory, to help re-dseign its long-term market operations to allow the Bank of England to auction loans backed by financial collateral of varying quality. Since 2010, this has been adopted as the Bank of England's standard mechanism for its long-term repurchase operations. The potential impact of the new auction design extends beyond the Bank of England to other central banks, private industry and to industry regulators.
Professor David Leece's research on household decision making, risk and mortgage design had a significant influence on a fundamental review of the United Kingdom's mortgage market carried out in 2003-4, and consequently has had a major continuing impact on: (i) understanding the role of mortgage market economics in the financial crisis of 2007-8; and (ii) the ability of a global investment bank (and the banking sector more widely) to understand, value and hedge risk in securitised mortgage debt.
From the 1990s UCL Economics invested in the capacity to conduct fundamental and applied research in behavioural and experimental economics. This was the basis for the research which provided the evidence base for the Office of Fair Trading to identify and act upon misleading pricing practices, particularly `drip pricing', in 2010. As a result, 12 major airlines announced that they would include debit card charges in their headline prices, and government announced that the EU-wide Consumer Rights Directive would be implemented a year earlier than it was due to go into effect.
It is widely agreed that savings for funded pensions are inadequate, while pay-as-you-go schemes are unsustainable. Our research addressed determinants and adequacy of saving, and policies to alleviate the problem. This led to the team investigating the economic and fiscal impacts of extending working lives. Presentations were made at the EC, at Finance Ministries and at public fora. The Daily Telegraph front page (Your Country Needs You to Work Longer) on 5th of May 2009, discussing the work, had an impact. There was a noticeable impact on UK, Italian, and other retirement policies, and is acknowledged to have been an influence on the decision to raise UK retirement ages in 2010.
Derek Bunn has led a research programme on understanding competition, market evolution, and prices in electricity markets. He and other researchers in the LBS Energy Markets Group have modelled production facilities in detail, their explicit ownerships, and the price-formation process. Their use of computational learning provides subtle insights which have eluded conventional approaches. The LBS group was the first to do this, and the approach is now widely applied. Relevance of the work is recognised via funding from major energy companies and research organisations. In terms of external impact, this work has informed extensive advice to several government inquiries, stimulated further research, and is actively used by commericial businesses.
The Life Market is a major new global capital market for transferring longevity risk from corporate pension plans and annuity providers to long-term capital market investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and endowments, in exchange for a longevity risk premium (paid to the investors by the institutions laying off their longevity risk). Previously, the only source of longevity risk hedging was the insurance industry which, given that so many people are living much longer than anticipated, now has insufficient capacity to deal with this risk (estimated at $25trillion) on a global basis. The size of their future pension liabilities now present serious threats to the solvency of many companies. The longevity bonds and swaps designed by Professor David Blake at the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School, City University London, were integral to the creation and operation of the Life Market. The adoption of these bonds and swaps by investors has served to establish a global capital market investor base contributing towards the long-term availability of longevity solutions, benefiting the insurance and pensions industries, employers and, in turn, employees through greater security of their pensions in retirement.
This case study charts the influence of the Risk On / Risk Off (RORO) paradigm, developed in research at the University of Oxford in collaboration with investment bank HSBC. Since 2008, RORO has had a significant economic impact on HSBC as well as wider impact on the thinking and actions of investors and other global market participants. Having begun as a specialised research tool within HSBC's foreign exchange team, the RORO methodology was publicised in the advice that HSBC supply to a wide range of major fund managers, corporate institutions and central banks. The research has led directly to a change in the way that asset managers think about investment decisions, with consequent impact on the investment and risk management strategies they undertake. RORO is regularly featured in the financial press and is becoming increasingly mainstream, with coverage in national and international media aimed at retail investors.
Regulating telecommunications has been difficult for policy-makers, who must balance freedom for business operation with fairness and value for consumers. Termination rates — the cost of ending phone calls using other networks — have been particularly contentious.
Professor Valletti's work helped regulators, including Ofcom, to model the processes involved and thereby improve regulatory pricing guidelines.
By developing a new theory of regulation — how dynamic incentives price regulation — his research has influenced policy in both UK and international telecommunications markets.
Research undertaken at Reading by Crosby/Hughes/Devaney and retirees Murdoch/Baum into commercial lease law, policy, practice and pricing since 1993 has driven Government policy and supported industry change within a significantly altered leasing environment in the UK. During the REF period, research conducted at Reading has continued to influence the self-regulation of the industry, acted as a catalyst for a new retail lease and significantly influenced industry solutions concerning aspects of commercial lease pricing. Specifically the impact has been on:
- The contents of the Commercial Leases Code of Practice currently in use;
- The 2009 Government policy statement through its monitoring research into the 2007 Code;
- Industry methods for the pricing of lease incentives through authorship of evolving Information Papers and Guidance Notes within the RICS Red Book; and
- Industry wide agreement to produce new property rental value indices and equivalent yield series affecting over 21,000 commercial properties, worth over £140 billion, held within the Investment Property Databank (IPD).
Our research team has developed new approaches to classifying demand series as `intermittent' and `lumpy', and devised new variants of the standard Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting, which improve forecast accuracy and stock performance. These approaches have impacted the forecasting software of Syncron and Manugistics, through the team's consultancy advice and knowledge transfer. Subsequently, this impact has extended to Syncron International and JDA Software, which took over Manugistics. These companies' forecasting software packages have a combined client base turnover of over £200 billion per annum, and their clients benefit from substantial inventory savings from the new approaches adopted.