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Influencing the Creation and Development of the Office for Budget Responsibility

Summary of the impact

University of Glasgow research, undertaken in collaboration with the Universities of Exeter and Oxford, directly influenced the Government decision to create the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Conservative Party cited the research as part of the rationale for the creation of such a fiscal body in its policy paper in 2008; the research was subsequently presented to the Strategy Unit of the Cabinet Office, No.'s 10 and 11 Downing Street and the Institute of Government throughout 2008 and 2009. The proposal was implemented by the coalition government in 2010, with the research team then using the findings to advise a Treasury Select Committee as well as the Bank of England on the appropriate remit, expectations and functions of the newly-created OBR.

Submitting Institution

University of Glasgow

Unit of Assessment

Economics and Econometrics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics
Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration

The impact of research into committee structure and gender-composition on the effectiveness and accountability of Monetary Policy Committees

Summary of the impact

Research published between 2003 and 2010 on central bank design has established Sibert as an internationally-recognised authority whose ideas have changed the way that policy makers, academics and the public think about monetary policy committees and have influenced efforts to increase the accountability of these committees and the call to increase female participation, particularly at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Recognition of the practical value of this research-based understanding is evident in her 2009 appointment to the newly-formed Icelandic five-member monetary policy committee.

Sibert's research investigates the structure of central banks and monetary policy committees, as well as other decision-making groups, and on how their design affects their performance. In particular, she focuses on how it matters that monetary policy is made by a group rather than an individual and how a monetary policy committee can be designed to produce the best possible outcome for monetary policy. She communicates her research through refereed journal articles, invited publications; policy articles, speeches and opinion pieces.

Submitting Institution

Birkbeck College

Unit of Assessment

Economics and Econometrics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Econometrics

Influence on Macroeconomic Policy

Summary of the impact

Economic models with adaptive learning developed in Mitra's research are increasingly being adopted by policy authorities and in the training of graduate students. The usual paradigm in economics, rational expectations (RE), unrealistically assumes complete knowledge on the part of policymakers and households. Mitra's work has emphasised informational limitations faced by policymakers and provides guidance for policies in these situations. Monetary policy is an area where different types of models are heavily used and their results are one input to the policy decisions. The impact of this case study should be seen by virtue of pioneering an approach that has come to be accepted by the economics profession as the realistic one to analyse macroeconomic policy changes under bounded rationality; this approach has led to a large outgrowth of applied models used in policy making in recent times. These policy oriented works have provided support for the aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages that have been adopted in the wake of the financial crisis in 2007. They have been disseminated widely through presentations at numerous conferences sponsored by central banks in the presence of senior policymakers. The research has also influenced the teaching of macro and monetary economics; it is part of reading lists of leading MPhil/PhD programmes and has in part contributed to PhD students specialising in this broad area of research.

Submitting Institution

University of St Andrews

Unit of Assessment

Economics and Econometrics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Econometrics

Corsetti

Summary of the impact

Giancarlo Corsetti has a long-term engagement with monetary authorities (the European Central Bank and since 2010 the Bank of England) where his research has had an impact on the development of frameworks for analysing stabilization policies in open economies. Since September 2010, his research has specifically focused on: (a) monetary policy trade-offs between internal objectives and exchange rate misalignment and external imbalances; (b) macroeconomic stabilization with high and variable sovereign risk; (c) the design of a monetary backstop to government debt. The research has had an impact through setting policy research agendas; through the inputs into scenario and econometric analyses; through forming the basis of Giancarlo's contribution to high-level policy seminars and the basis of his training of central bank officers.

Submitting Institution

University of Cambridge

Unit of Assessment

Economics and Econometrics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Econometrics

Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Regulation, and Financial Stability

Summary of the impact

Since the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States, a key issue for central banks has been the extent to which they should use monetary policy, along with macroprudential tools, to promote financial stability. University of Manchester (UoM) research has developed small theoretical models, and more detailed quantitative macroeconomic models, to help address this issue. This analytical work has helped to: firstly, influence the policies and operations of several major central banks (Brazil, Turkey and Morocco); and secondly, fuel the debate about global reform of bank regulation in international forums, such as the Financial Stability Board, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and annual meetings of central banks from Latin America. Impact has been achieved through presentations to these forums, alongside discussions with senior policymakers from other countries.

Submitting Institution

University of Manchester

Unit of Assessment

Economics and Econometrics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Econometrics

Influencing monetary policy, financial sector policy in the emerging economy of South Africa (Laurence Harris et al)

Summary of the impact

Monetary policy and its effect on the wider economy are important for South Africa's objective of achieving both high economic growth and low inflation — which are deemed to contribute to the government's and electorate's greater objectives of reducing poverty and creating employment. The central bank (South African Reserve Bank, SARB) and the National Treasury have responsibility for both monetary policy and the oversight of the financial sector. Laurence Harris's research on the links between monetary policy, financial sector development, and their connection with the financing and investment decisions made by businesses has led both institutions to seek and act on his advice.

Submitting Institution

School of Oriental & African Studies

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Applied Economics, Econometrics
Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services: Banking, Finance and Investment

Improving macroeconomic policy-making in East Africa

Summary of the impact

Research at Oxford by members of the International Growth Centre (IGC), funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Department for International Development (DFID), has played an important role in shaping two key areas of monetary and exchange rate policy formulation in East Africa.

Research on food prices and inflation in Tanzania is providing the technical basis for the discussions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Tanzania, and has contributed to current thinking by the African Development Bank (ADB) on policy responses to global food price volatility in East Africa.

Work on exchange rate policy has helped shape the Draft Protocol on East African Monetary Union currently being negotiated between the East African Community (EAC) partner states (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi).

Submitting Institution

University of Oxford

Unit of Assessment

Anthropology and Development Studies

Summary Impact Type

Political

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Econometrics

Policy Advocacy for Economies in Deep Recessions

Summary of the impact

The world financial crisis and recession of 2007- 2009, and the continued stagnation of global economies, has raised the question of how governments and central banks should respond in deep recessions. Prof. Evans and colleagues have shown using macroeconomic models with adaptive learning that after large pessimistic shocks, a rapid switch to aggressive monetary easing is required and aggressive fiscal policy may be needed. To achieve policy impact this work has been presented in numerous central bank conferences, and it has caught the attention of several members of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC). The policies of the FOMC since 2008 have been consistently aggressive, despite public criticism and even dissension within the FOMC itself. This research has provided important academic support for the application of these policies.

Divergent paths can result from large
      negative expectation shocks.
Divergent paths can result from large negative expectation shocks.

Submitting Institution

University of St Andrews

Unit of Assessment

Economics and Econometrics

Summary Impact Type

Economic

Research Subject Area(s)

Economics: Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Econometrics

Influencing development aid policy and practice (David Mosse)

Summary of the impact

A theme within Professor David Mosse's anthropological research focuses on the relationship between policy, practice and effects in international development. His field-based ethnographic research challenges assumptions about policy implementation and the nature of success and failure in aid programming. His novel approach to questions of policy analysis and policy change has been widely influential on thinking among policymakers and practitioners across a range of organisations, sectors and countries. It has enhanced the capacity for adaptive self-critical understanding of the aid process among practitioners and aid organisations, while also demonstrating the importance of researcher-practitioner engagement in improving the delivery of aid and development programmes.

Submitting Institution

School of Oriental & African Studies

Unit of Assessment

Anthropology and Development Studies

Summary Impact Type

Societal

Research Subject Area(s)

Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration, Sociology

Shaping Policy, Strategic Planning, and Investment in Transport at City, Regional and National Levels

Summary of the impact

University of Glasgow research into public sector governance has influenced planning and investment in major transport and infrastructure projects. Transport Scotland's Strategic Transport Projects Review was the first nationwide, multi-modal, evidence based review of Scotland's transport system; as a member of the Board, Professor Iain Docherty contributed to its recommendations, adopted by the Scottish Government in December 2008. His research also shaped the Commission for Integrated Transport's negotiations with the Westminster Government on the White Paper which underpinned the Planning Bill 2008 and subsequent Planning Act 2009; informed the Cabinet Office's 2009 Urban Transport strategy and recommendations; and influenced 2012 investment planning discussions by Edinburgh City Council.

Submitting Institution

University of Glasgow

Unit of Assessment

Business and Management Studies

Summary Impact Type

Political

Research Subject Area(s)

Studies In Human Society: Policy and Administration, Political Science, Sociology

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