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Since the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States, a key issue for central banks has been the extent to which they should use monetary policy, along with macroprudential tools, to promote financial stability. University of Manchester (UoM) research has developed small theoretical models, and more detailed quantitative macroeconomic models, to help address this issue. This analytical work has helped to: firstly, influence the policies and operations of several major central banks (Brazil, Turkey and Morocco); and secondly, fuel the debate about global reform of bank regulation in international forums, such as the Financial Stability Board, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and annual meetings of central banks from Latin America. Impact has been achieved through presentations to these forums, alongside discussions with senior policymakers from other countries.
The funding of innovative SMEs is widely recognised to suffer from market failures and has been an area of policy concern since the 1930s. Sussex research has contributed significantly to understanding the underlying causes of these market failures, particularly for innovative firms in the UK and EU. It has placed stronger emphasis, than was the case in the past, on addressing demand -, rather than supply-side constraints (caused by the limited number of UK firms capable of generating commercial returns). This enables it to contribute towards the design and implementation of more effective equity support.
Research by Surrey's Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) has had significant impact on monetary policy in several emerging economies.
This case study highlights impact in Nigeria and Pakistan. Both are important emerging economies: Nigeria is the second largest economy in Africa and ranks 30th by world GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity), while Pakistan ranks 27th; yet GDP per capita is relatively low in both.
Since 2008, Surrey research has: (1) led to the establishment of a new Centre for Survey Research at the State Bank of Pakistan, collecting data that have directly influenced the Bank's monetary policy; (2) steered reform of the macroeconomic models used by the State Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria; and (3) helped develop a new approach to monetary policy Nigeria.
Research by the School's Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) on the monetary transmission mechanism has been influential in improving the design, implementation and effectiveness of the monetary policies of a number of central banks, including the Bank of England, Banque de France and the European Central Bank. The research has influenced changes in the way that official monetary aggregates are measured so as to capture the impact of non-bank financial institutions on the money supply and credit availability, and in better understanding of how monetary policy affects different interest rates. This in turn has allowed for improved control by central banks of their policy targets, and for better understanding of the effects of their monetary policies on economic activity and inflation.
The global financial crisis of 2008 required policy makers to restructure radically banking systems through re-capitalization, essentially injecting capital to the banks. The Unit's research has shown that recapitalization policy has the potential to impose significant costs on the wider economy and on the banking system in particular. This research brings this trade-off to the attention of policy-makers at central banks who will now be better informed about the nature of the associated costs. . Our research outputs enabled some of these policy-makers to decide at which point on the trade-off they might wish to locate their policy choices.
Research at Oxford by members of the International Growth Centre (IGC), funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Department for International Development (DFID), has played an important role in shaping two key areas of monetary and exchange rate policy formulation in East Africa.
Research on food prices and inflation in Tanzania is providing the technical basis for the discussions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Tanzania, and has contributed to current thinking by the African Development Bank (ADB) on policy responses to global food price volatility in East Africa.
Work on exchange rate policy has helped shape the Draft Protocol on East African Monetary Union currently being negotiated between the East African Community (EAC) partner states (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi).
Giancarlo Corsetti has a long-term engagement with monetary authorities (the European Central Bank and since 2010 the Bank of England) where his research has had an impact on the development of frameworks for analysing stabilization policies in open economies. Since September 2010, his research has specifically focused on: (a) monetary policy trade-offs between internal objectives and exchange rate misalignment and external imbalances; (b) macroeconomic stabilization with high and variable sovereign risk; (c) the design of a monetary backstop to government debt. The research has had an impact through setting policy research agendas; through the inputs into scenario and econometric analyses; through forming the basis of Giancarlo's contribution to high-level policy seminars and the basis of his training of central bank officers.
Research published between 2003 and 2010 on central bank design has established Sibert as an internationally-recognised authority whose ideas have changed the way that policy makers, academics and the public think about monetary policy committees and have influenced efforts to increase the accountability of these committees and the call to increase female participation, particularly at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Recognition of the practical value of this research-based understanding is evident in her 2009 appointment to the newly-formed Icelandic five-member monetary policy committee.
Sibert's research investigates the structure of central banks and monetary policy committees, as well as other decision-making groups, and on how their design affects their performance. In particular, she focuses on how it matters that monetary policy is made by a group rather than an individual and how a monetary policy committee can be designed to produce the best possible outcome for monetary policy. She communicates her research through refereed journal articles, invited publications; policy articles, speeches and opinion pieces.
The development and introduction of a new international regulatory framework for banking and financial markets (known as Basel III) following the 2007/8 financial crisis has been challenging for all parties. Murinde's research has helped shape the response to Basel III by banking and stock market regulators in Africa. In particular, this work has enhanced the competitiveness of the financial services sector underpinned the articulation of the African voice on the transition to Basel III as expressed at the G20 Summit in Seoul in 2010; and directly enhanced the skills and knowledge of stock exchange regulators. As a result of this impact, the African Development Bank invited Murinde to contribute directly to knowledge and capacity building in Africa, and he was subsequently appointed the first Director of the African Development Institute at the African Development Bank in May 2011, on a three-year secondment from the University of Birmingham.
Research within the School's Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP) on the characteristics of UK exporting and non-exporting firms has been used by the UK's trade promotion agencies, UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) and the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) to improve the design and effectiveness of the firm-specific policies they use to increase export performance.
The research has been used to provide an evidence base against which to judge the rationale for and effectiveness of export promotion and to develop new schemes. The research has led to a better understanding of the different types of barriers to exporting faced by different types of UK firms, and the role of previous export experience in lowering these barriers. This evidence base has both informed the design of the UK's export policy and has helped to fashion a specific, new trade promotion scheme (Gateways to Global Growth) launched by the UK in 2009.